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I currently own shares and call options. I'm not sure what I'm going to do before earnings though. I feel this stock will continue to ride up on momentum, so I'll maintain my position or possibly add to it today.
Me too, granted I live in the Bay Area though. However, I was shocked to see one in Alaska at a Costco parking lot. I'm not worried about car sales. I'm worried about the zero-emissions credits.
IV at 138% on the weeklies. Sure wouldn't mind selling some way oom to capture the IV if it goes much higher pre-earnings. Directional bet? Not for me.
Too much Emotion going around. I wouldn't touch it. Just my opinion. Even if I am wrong, I don't see it as a good pick up here. Look at their cash flow.
Too much Emotion going around. I wouldn't touch it. Just my opinion. Even if I am wrong, I don't see it as a good pick up here. Look at their cash flow.
I would rather buy something else.
There is definitely a lot of emotion going around with TSLA among both the bulls and bears. Luckily, there is still a lot of shorties, which is a reason I've been buying into earnings. I feel confident it will continue to climb pre-earnings. Shorts are getting scared and the bulls are going crazy for shares. Whenever a stock becomes too loved, I get nervous, which is why I will be cutting my position in TSLA significantly before they announce. People might be expecting the unthinkable such as a profit in Q2. I'm expecting a beat, but still a loss. I haven't decided on the amount I will keep during earnings. It's definitely playing with fire, but my view on TSLA long-term is strong, which is the reason I'm doing it. I'm halfway on being able to buy a Model S from TSLA stock lol. I'll be waiting for their Gen III model to come out though.
This may be a dumb question, but why did the stock suddenly explode in April? It had been around $30 for quite a while before that. Have sales gone up 3-400% since then?
What would scare me is, there's no support underneath it. What about a straddle or selling puts, inevitably its going to go down. I think we're very close to the, "this time it's different argument" for the stock. It's different because of the technology, Elon Musks brilliance, etc. Very dangerous arguments in a bull market. We heard that in the the tech bubble of '99.
This may be a dumb question, but why did the stock suddenly explode in April? It had been around $30 for quite a while before that. Have sales gone up 3-400% since then?
What would scare me is, there's no support underneath it. What about a straddle or selling puts, inevitably its going to go down. I think we're very close to the, "this time it's different argument" for the stock. It's different because of the technology, Elon Musks brilliance, etc. Very dangerous arguments in a bull market. We heard that in the the tech bubble of '99.
The stock really exploded after Q1 earnings. It was a classic example of a short squeeze. Prior to earnings they were trending up and shorts were piling on and then when earnings came out, the shorts had to cover. There is still a large short float, which will mean this stock is either going to go up BIG or go down BIG. I'm 99.99% sure it will not move a small amount (under 5%). I'm thinking it will go to 100 or less within a couple days if they disappoint and $180 or more within a couple days if they impress. TSLA could potentially go down to its 200 day average, which is around $58-60 if I remember correctly.
If there was a small/no short float, I wouldn't be investing so much in TSLA the past week or so. There is still some juice to squeeze out of them. There is nothing to stop its momentum going into earnings. However, once earnings come, it can easily reverse. I keep bouncing back and forth as to what I will do. It truly is a flip of the coin, so I need to think about how much of my profits I want to gamble with. I'm starting to think more conservatively, so maybe I will sell my call options and half of my position before the announcement. I am bullish, but if I want to protect myself a bit more, I can get some put options too. This is where greed can get you!
If you want some fundamental reasons... They sold more cars than they initially thought. They raised guidance. They paid back their loan to the government early. Demand has been so strong, they increased their prices. They are now taking pre-orders for the Model X. They will be releasing a smaller version of the Model S in 2016 that will be similar in size to 3 series and have more range than currently. The BMW i3 looks like a complete flop and so does GM's ELR. It has gotten a score of 99 on consumer reports. It's unlike any other car. There is no ignition, you have a 17" iPad like interface, I mean, just test drive one and you'll see. As long as investors see a big potential, the company doesn't have to be profitable, just look at AMZN.
It seems like you could do something with put options on the stock (bear put spread?).
A sept 140/110 bear put spread would "only" cost you $9.49. Add some upside participation (165 call at $7.30)? Total cost, $16.79. If it collapses to 110, you've almost doubled your money. If it goes up to $165-175, you probably make a small amount.
Stocks like this definitely take on a life of their own. I remember in 99, I was trading tech stocks. I think YHOO was the worlds most valuable media company at one point. Like a $120 billion market cap? People forget about competition in bubbles.
It seems like you could do something with put options on the stock (bear put spread?).
A sept 140/110 bear put spread would "only" cost you $9.49. Add some upside participation (165 call at $7.30)? Total cost, $16.79. If it collapses to 110, you've almost doubled your money. If it goes up to $165-175, you probably make a small amount.
Stocks like this definitely take on a life of their own. I remember in 99, I was trading tech stocks. I think YHOO was the worlds most valuable media company at one point. Like a $120 billion market cap? People forget about competition in bubbles.
I like your thinking! I will most likely do something very similar. Thanks
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