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Market isn't expensive, ask any of the successfully investors, especially Warren Buffett, when asked if there's a bubble, he said "No" without thinking.
He also said that he doesn't see any bargains in the market.
I do think the S&P will go over 2000 next year. We broke thru the double tops of 2000 and 2007 so it should be all up from here. Although in the short term I'm waiting for a pullback. The S&P is up 120 points non-stop in 3 weeks.
Caught a good bit of the Yellen hearing earlier today. Came away quite impressed with her testimony and the way she handled the affair. Clearly seems like a good choice to lead the Fed.
Like I mentioned in the original post, we're in a very favorable environment for investors. The Fed will continue to provide accommodative monetary policy until they feel the economic recovery finally becomes robust and sustainable. Unless they really blow the timing, this is a virtual win-win situation.
If for some (unfathomable) reason you still don't have any skin in this game, I'd say it's time to step up to the plate and take some hacks.
-I think we may be at a major cross roads for global trade/global commerce. The trends of the 20th century (bulls and bears) seem mute if China, India, Asia are going to gobble up a larger piece of the economic pie in the next 20-30 years.
Has anyone read about China possibly building a nicaraguan canal? That's huge. These sorts of projects/infrastructure plays don't get much press time on mainstream american tv. I think we may be at a major turning point globally. Much more profound than anything since WWII. Maybe analogous to england declining in the 20's and 30's and power shifting to america? This time the power is shifting to asia.
-Also, it seems like finance, paper, hedge funds (many closing now) have hit a major peak. I think on the Forbes 400, something like 120 names are related to finance, investing, hedge funds. It's quite a lot. The share of finance to gdp is quite high. It seems like it'll revert back to the mean (such high profits attracting competition?). I don't think banks are going to make money hand over fist forever.
We could be in a major shift to land, agriculture, commodities that people don't see. Stocks have barely moved in the last 10 years, even with all this QE.
I think investors have been lulled to sleep somewhat over the last 30 years. No one knows what a bond bear market looks like. A savage bond bear market?
-I'm also skeptical of so many things getting sliced and diced and turned into an investable "asset". Rental backed securities from blackstone? Does that sound like a stock bottom to you? Just because it's there doesn't mean it can be sliced and diced and turned into an investment.
I think we're in mid bubble territory now with biotechs, tsla, the twitter hysteria.
-I think we may be at a major cross roads for global trade/global commerce. The trends of the 20th century (bulls and bears) seem mute if China, India, Asia are going to gobble up a larger piece of the economic pie in the next 20-30 years.
Has anyone read about China possibly building a nicaraguan canal? That's huge. These sorts of projects/infrastructure plays don't get much press time on mainstream american tv. I think we may be at a major turning point globally. Much more profound than anything since WWII. Maybe analogous to england declining in the 20's and 30's and power shifting to america? This time the power is shifting to asia.
Transitions such as this have happened many, many times in world history. Generally, it has been accompanied by war. Let's hope if this is that transition, it will be less sanguinary than 1913-1945..
However, the resources of the US put us on better footing than the UK was.
Another thing that concerns me is the implications of globalism on intellectual property. The inability to enforce patents in particular parts of the world combined with the widespread accessibility to products on the internet, reduces return on investment for innovation. R&D departments in many industries have been trimmed gratuitously, and this doesn't bode well for future growth.
-I'm also skeptical of so many things getting sliced and diced and turned into an investable "asset". Rental backed securities from blackstone? Does that sound like a stock bottom to you? Just because it's there doesn't mean it can be sliced and diced and turned into an investment.
I think we're in mid bubble territory now with biotechs, tsla, the twitter hysteria.
Don't forget car loan backed securities too! I share your skepticism on stock valuations!
We are in a secular BULL market for commodities and secular bear market for stocks IMO.
Stocks will go down and commodities will go up in the future is my stance. The reasons for my stance are below.
- bull markets typically end in euphoria.
- Conditions at stock market bottoms and tops.
Data
- Dow to gold ratio is very favorable GOLD (commodities), says stocks are overpriced
- Stocks have very very low yields (2.2%?) this is super low and is in bubble territory.
- stocks P/E ratio's are not low, in fact they are high.
- Gold has not accounted for the money supply growth (M0).
- Stocks don't do well under increasing interest rate environment
- Bonds are in a super bubble, most likely will drive rates up, stocks will be ehhh.
- stocks are being held up artificially, same with bonds with low interest rate policies.
- gold and gold stocks are held by almost no one, doesn't signal a top at all.
- stocks and bonds are held by everyone, so much paper. (bubble)
- info: dollar chart doesn't look great.
I think gold could go down more to flush out the weak hands and get max pain, then we will resume the bull market.
Dow
copper
oil
Some charts, just to look at where things are at. I just don't see the fundamentals working out well for stocks over the next 5-10 yrs. I still invest in companies and you can see my posts on this forum with the companies I invest in. But I still maintain and continue to add to my commodity positions.
I like gold and silver bullions and COSWF (canadian oil sands) which pays over a 7% dividend with not much downside and a whole lot of upside IMO. Recently purchased RIG as well.
Don't forget car loan backed securities too! I share your skepticism on stock valuations!
The railroad stocks also look absolutely crazy. CP's chart? It looks like a tech stock. I think in a traditionally healthy secular bull market, the financials and banks are suppose to lead the market higher. I don't see how we can be in a sustainable secular bull with a sick financial system. We could be de leveraging for years.
I think gold could maybe go to $850 or $875. That would really flush out the weak hands. Under $1,000 would definitely be a scare psychologically. If it stays under $1,000 for a long time, that could really demoralize people.
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