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What we are seeing now is a blow off top. Poor market breadth. Low volume. The last of the retail players are getting in to get some of the 'free money'. Notice how the market just simply leaps up every day on nothing? This is indiscriminate 'little guy' buying.
Fundamentals are deteriorating. See the revenue number from Wal-Mart? See XOM, see MCD, See IBM? See the banks? They are all doing less business, but managing to keep earnings up through reducing costs.
The Fed is keeping the free money flowing, but with marginal positive effect. It is unknown what will happen when they begin to slow down their buying, and further, begin to unwind their balance sheet. No one has ever been in this position before, and so no-one knows what will happen when we take the steps to change the Fed's behavior.
From a technical perspective, we have the final leg up, wave E, of a long term five wave move to come. My guess is that we have it during the holiday season, and into the early part of 2014.
And then it is over. Big time. If you are not prepared for it, not only investing wise, you will get crushed by the impending debacle. A ten percent correction will look like child's play compared to the sell off which is coming.
From a technical perspective, we have the final leg up, wave E, of a long term five wave move to come. My guess is that we have it during the holiday season, and into the early part of 2014.
And then it is over. Big time. If you are not prepared for it, not only investing wise, you will get crushed by the impending debacle. A ten percent correction will look like child's play compared to the sell off which is coming.
You don't find it even a little funny that various people have been predicting every year for the last 4 years exactly the kind of impending doom in your post?
You could be right though, so it's wise to stay alert.
What we are seeing now is a blow off top. Poor market breadth. Low volume. The last of the retail players are getting in to get some of the 'free money'. Notice how the market just simply leaps up every day on nothing? This is indiscriminate 'little guy' buying.
Fundamentals are deteriorating. See the revenue number from Wal-Mart? See XOM, see MCD, See IBM? See the banks? They are all doing less business, but managing to keep earnings up through reducing costs.
The Fed is keeping the free money flowing, but with marginal positive effect. It is unknown what will happen when they begin to slow down their buying, and further, begin to unwind their balance sheet. No one has ever been in this position before, and so no-one knows what will happen when we take the steps to change the Fed's behavior.
From a technical perspective, we have the final leg up, wave E, of a long term five wave move to come. My guess is that we have it during the holiday season, and into the early part of 2014.
And then it is over. Big time. If you are not prepared for it, not only investing wise, you will get crushed by the impending debacle. A ten percent correction will look like child's play compared to the sell off which is coming.
Wow, pretty dire stuff, Ted
We'll check back at the end of March and see how your prediction turned out...
What we are seeing now is a blow off top. Poor market breadth. Low volume. The last of the retail players are getting in to get some of the 'free money'. Notice how the market just simply leaps up every day on nothing? This is indiscriminate 'little guy' buying.
Fundamentals are deteriorating. See the revenue number from Wal-Mart? See XOM, see MCD, See IBM? See the banks? They are all doing less business, but managing to keep earnings up through reducing costs.
The Fed is keeping the free money flowing, but with marginal positive effect. It is unknown what will happen when they begin to slow down their buying, and further, begin to unwind their balance sheet. No one has ever been in this position before, and so no-one knows what will happen when we take the steps to change the Fed's behavior.
From a technical perspective, we have the final leg up, wave E, of a long term five wave move to come. My guess is that we have it during the holiday season, and into the early part of 2014.
And then it is over. Big time. If you are not prepared for it, not only investing wise, you will get crushed by the impending debacle. A ten percent correction will look like child's play compared to the sell off which is coming.
We'll check back at the end of March and see how your prediction turned out...
Well, it's the most likely timeframe in view of the restart of budget/debt ceiling negotiations in January and February.
However, I'm not sure what " ... big time ..." and "... crushed ..." mean, though Ted seems to be saying a more than 10% drop in general equity market prices. Maybe 33%? Care to put a real number on it, Ted? And for how long?
Last time, just a few weeks ago, there was a relatively modest drop in prices over a 3-4 day period, they kicked the can down the road, the Fed is standing pat, and the market recovered and has continued up. Who's to say that the same won't happen again in the first quarter of 2014 after a little more theater?
In any case, I plan to be as liquid as possible by December 21, then see what happens in the first three months of next year, maybe picking some spots here and there.
putting imaginary money in banks from the so called federal reserve will finally come to an end when the banks realize they cant pay the light bill with phantom deposits.
Great so you two have the market figured out. Now all you need to do is figure out how to make money based on your knowledge.
Catching tops and bottoms is a fools game.
Believing that we are much closer to a top than a bottom means you trade with 'protection' in place. Some days you sell S&P's against your trading positions, other days you buy out of the money puts. Some days you buy longs, and you short other stocks with similar characteristics against them.
If i miss the last 5% on the upside, I am less concerned than ensuring that I catch at least 75% of the move to the downside, which I expect to be major.
I recognize that I am a contrarian. I also recognize that the preponderance of interest in the stock market is on the long side. I understand that I am fighting an incredible Fed policy which is designed, in part, to inflate equity prices. I also know that at least in the beginning ,the PPT will be under the market on any pullbacks. And lastly, I also know that I am generally early when I start looking for a major contra move to the market's then current direction.
Knowing all of those things, and willingly accepting them as part of the investment landscape, I take measured steps which gradually turn my portfolio from Net Long to Net Short. The higher we go, on deteriorating fundamentals, the more comfortable I feel about my positioning in the market.
As long as I am comfortable with my thesis, and the behavior of the market, making money will take care of itself over time.
What we are seeing now is a blow off top. Poor market breadth. Low volume. The last of the retail players are getting in to get some of the 'free money'. Notice how the market just simply leaps up every day on nothing? This is indiscriminate 'little guy' buying.
Fundamentals are deteriorating. See the revenue number from Wal-Mart? See XOM, see MCD, See IBM? See the banks? They are all doing less business, but managing to keep earnings up through reducing costs.
The Fed is keeping the free money flowing, but with marginal positive effect. It is unknown what will happen when they begin to slow down their buying, and further, begin to unwind their balance sheet. No one has ever been in this position before, and so no-one knows what will happen when we take the steps to change the Fed's behavior.
From a technical perspective, we have the final leg up, wave E, of a long term five wave move to come. My guess is that we have it during the holiday season, and into the early part of 2014.
And then it is over. Big time. If you are not prepared for it, not only investing wise, you will get crushed by the impending debacle. A ten percent correction will look like child's play compared to the sell off which is coming.
Can you elaborate?
XOM 2009 Revenue: 22,744.70
XOM 2012 Revenue: 27,567.00
IBM 2009 Revenue: 95,759.00
IBM 2012 Revenue: 104,507.00
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