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Hold on, assume you invest the whole $32,500 at year 1, which obviously was not the case, you would have to have on average 30% each year to get to that $400K.
How long do you usually keep your buys?
There were multiple years where I doubled and even more than doubled my money using options. However, I trade options the same way as stocks, the only difference is the timeframe for options is much shorter.
I use a variety of things when buying and selling positions. However, the most important ones being support/resistance levels and moving averages. Let's say, XYZ tends to find support off the 50 day moving average and now it has come down to the 50 again. If it starts to bounce off the 50, it tells me there is once again support, so I will buy it and I will sell it if it breaks below the 50 day. This keeps my risk at a minimum, so to answer your question, it could be anywhere from only 1 hour to a year or longer.
I'm liking the price action of oil stocks. It's too early to call a bottom, but I wouldn't argue against starting to build some positions now. I've started a bit today, but I will get out if it breaks below this little floor we've seen the past few days.
You don't think UCO is a good longish term purchase?
Leveraged ETFs generally are NOT good long-term purchases because of the price decay inherent in them. Volatility in the market combined with the daily resetting of leverage will eventually (if not sooner) reduce the return you might expect (in this case, 2x the Dow Crude Oil index). As an example, after two years the oil index might be up, say, 10%, so you might expect UCO to be up 20%. But UCO could actually be DOWN 10% or more, depending on how much volatility there's been to that point.
There were multiple years where I doubled and even more than doubled my money using options. However, I trade options the same way as stocks, the only difference is the timeframe for options is much shorter.
I use a variety of things when buying and selling positions. However, the most important ones being support/resistance levels and moving averages. Let's say, XYZ tends to find support off the 50 day moving average and now it has come down to the 50 again. If it starts to bounce off the 50, it tells me there is once again support, so I will buy it and I will sell it if it breaks below the 50 day. This keeps my risk at a minimum, so to answer your question, it could be anywhere from only 1 hour to a year or longer.
I'm liking the price action of oil stocks. It's too early to call a bottom, but I wouldn't argue against starting to build some positions now. I've started a bit today, but I will get out if it breaks below this little floor we've seen the past few days.
What you're doing is the exact same thing I learned from reading a book by Nicholas Darvas.
Regarding oil stocks, I think you're right and that's why I bought UCO yesterday.
Leveraged ETFs generally are NOT good long-term purchases because of the price decay inherent in them. Volatility in the market combined with the daily resetting of leverage will eventually (if not sooner) reduce the return you might expect (in this case, 2x the Dow Crude Oil index). As an example, after two years the oil index might be up, say, 10%, so you might expect UCO to be up 20%. But UCO could actually be DOWN 10% or more, depending on how much volatility there's been to that point.
True, and that's why I am dumping UCO once it reaches certain point.
I use a variety of things when buying and selling positions. However, the most important ones being support/resistance levels and moving averages. Let's say, XYZ tends to find support off the 50 day moving average and now it has come down to the 50 again. If it starts to bounce off the 50, it tells me there is once again support, so I will buy it and I will sell it if it breaks below the 50 day. This keeps my risk at a minimum, so to answer your question, it could be anywhere from only 1 hour to a year or longer.
Which website do you use to see stock's 50 days moving average?
By the way, how and where do you pick your stocks, so that you can track/analyze them before buying?
What you're doing is the exact same thing I learned from reading a book by Nicholas Darvas.
Regarding oil stocks, I think you're right and that's why I bought UCO yesterday.
I'm not familiar with Darvas, but I definitely believe in this type of investing/trading vs pure fundamentals. I care about fundamentals, but technicals are most important to me. I made a ton of money with TSLA because of this. I lost a ton of money with AAPL because I put fundamentals over technicals, never again. Well I still made a lot with AAPL because I was buying options on its way up, but I lost a decent chunk of those profits by hanging on to it even though the technicals were telling me to sell.
Which website do you use to see stock's 50 days moving average?
By the way, how and where do you pick your stocks, so that you can track/analyze them before buying?
I love TC2000, but they charge a monthly fee, so depending on how much you trade will determine whether or not it's worth it. However, I use the 7 day moving average, 20 day moving average, 50 day moving average, 100 day moving average and 200 day moving average. I also like to see the stochastics and volume. It's best to use a candlestick chart. I'll post a picture of my set up.
During the mini corrections, SPY tends to find support around the 100 day moving average, while normally it finds support around the 20 day moving average.
The 50 day moving average is just an example. Generally, stocks will find support at specific moving averages or support/resistance levels, usually support/resistance matches the moving averages though. For example, let's say ABC tends to bounce off the 20 day moving average, while XYZ tends to bounce off the 100 day moving average. You can think of them as tree branches, so if ABC breaks below the 20 day moving average, I'd expect to see it test the 50 day moving average. If it finds support, I expect to see resistance at the 20 day moving average. If it breaks through the 20 day moving average, then I would view the 20 day moving average as the new support level. There is more to it than just this, but this is the basic idea. It's very difficult to explain it through text.
I love the volume action on USO / UCO the past few days and today it broke above the 7 day moving average. I bought some shares of UCO as well. Like I said before, it's still early to buy, but I can't argue against starting a position now if you want, I did too, just understand the risk.
True, but you can do a simplified, and not exact, calculation of your return.
Total stock value in Jan 2014 of all your accounts: $100
Total stock value added in 2014 : $20
Total stock value in Jan 2015 of all your account: $130
Approximate Return on investment in 2014: $10/$120 = 8%
This is of course not the exact return, since you may have invest a huge chunk of your $20 in August and not Jan of 2014, but if you use this consistently through out the years, it will give you an approximate return percentage.
That return calculation isn't even close to reliable. I put roughly 7-8k into various savings monthly and 6-7 accounts and all would have to be tracked . My 4 accounts at my brokerage firm tracks it and reports total return on a quarterly basis in my performance monitor
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