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Old 01-28-2015, 01:22 PM
 
2,806 posts, read 3,179,552 times
Reputation: 2708

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The more you hate them the more they go up. The hallmark of a long-term deflationary economy are low to negative interest rates. This is the reality we are in and I don't see anything that would challenge or end it. Certainly not the FED who has all but given up on the 2% inflation goal. Positive +2% that is. The bond market has it right as usual: we are not going to see 2% inflation for years to decades. Who is buying bonds here?
(Wrong forum- should be investing sorry :-)
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Old 01-28-2015, 01:41 PM
 
Location: New Mexico U.S.A.
26,527 posts, read 51,779,465 times
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Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord View Post
(Wrong forum- should be investing sorry :-)
Thread moved... The battery in my magic wand just died. Going outside to play....
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Old 01-28-2015, 02:45 PM
 
3,452 posts, read 4,929,115 times
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I'm getting confused. One opinion suggests that we should buy more bonds. Other opinions are that interest rates are going to be hiked and that's bad for bonds. What's the average Joe investor like me to do?
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Old 01-28-2015, 02:56 PM
 
2,806 posts, read 3,179,552 times
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Originally Posted by arctic_gardener View Post
I'm getting confused. One opinion suggests that we should buy more bonds. Other opinions are that interest rates are going to be hiked and that's bad for bonds. What's the average Joe investor like me to do?
Bonds looked too high for a long time now. I continue to buy a little every month. Not looking too shabby after all these years. The thing is nobody can time any market and nobody knows when IR are going to rise. Until then they continue to be a good investment. If I got a $ for every time someone predicts higher interest rates I would be rich by now.
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Old 01-28-2015, 04:51 PM
 
Location: Omaha, Nebraska
10,363 posts, read 7,993,227 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arctic_gardener View Post
I'm getting confused. One opinion suggests that we should buy more bonds. Other opinions are that interest rates are going to be hiked and that's bad for bonds. What's the average Joe investor like me to do?
Buy some bonds. Oh, and buy some stocks as well, and get into real estate.

Diversification is your best bet long-term.
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Old 01-28-2015, 05:27 PM
 
106,695 posts, read 108,880,922 times
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remember you all heard me telling you for quite a while if i had to make one bet it would be on TLT AND THE LONG TREASURY BOND
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Old 01-28-2015, 05:57 PM
 
26,191 posts, read 21,595,618 times
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My vglt is up 9%+ in the last month or so
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Old 01-28-2015, 10:29 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles
2,914 posts, read 2,689,462 times
Reputation: 2450
Quote:
Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord View Post
The more you hate them the more they go up. The hallmark of a long-term deflationary economy are low to negative interest rates. This is the reality we are in and I don't see anything that would challenge or end it. Certainly not the FED who has all but given up on the 2% inflation goal. Positive +2% that is. The bond market has it right as usual: we are not going to see 2% inflation for years to decades. Who is buying bonds here?
(Wrong forum- should be investing sorry :-)
What's your age? What's your bond / stock allocation ratio? You shouldn't be changing your allocation ratio with the wind.
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Old 01-29-2015, 01:41 AM
 
106,695 posts, read 108,880,922 times
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Originally Posted by Lowexpectations View Post
My vglt is up 9%+ in the last month or so
TLT is up the same . another good rally or so and i will sell it. wait for it to cycle down and repeat.

i always use a stop loss so if i guess wrong i am out.
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Old 01-29-2015, 06:39 AM
 
595 posts, read 560,734 times
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Economic forces don't trend in one direction forever. Interest rates falling for the last 30 years means it probably won't be falling for the next 30 years.

Interest rates will probably reverse when most people on this forum have significant positions in the form of bonds/bond funds
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