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Old 02-26-2015, 01:41 PM
 
63 posts, read 81,178 times
Reputation: 118

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It seems like pretty much any time I go online in the Finance and Business website there are bold predictions sold as gospel by main stream media outlets that the stock or bond market is going to do something specific in 2015. They also tell me which individual stocks are going to go up or down. The articles are written with so much confidence and they are written in mainstream websites.

Here are examples of the type of article I am talking about:

Cramer: This one stock is leading many higher | Watch the video - Yahoo Finance

Gilead Sciences: Despite Dividend, Still Room For Growth - Stocks to Watch - Barrons.com

Also when I watch CNBC these so called experts tell me what is going to happen with so much confidence.

These experts must be right the majority of the time or they would be taken off the Internet, right?
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Old 02-26-2015, 01:43 PM
 
24,413 posts, read 27,038,900 times
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People have short memories plain and simple...
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Old 02-26-2015, 07:38 PM
 
2,401 posts, read 3,261,415 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bmw335xi View Post
People have short memories plain and simple...
Not only that. I find it incredibly hard to retrieve the old predictions that turned out to be completely wrong.
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Old 02-26-2015, 07:54 PM
 
Location: Omaha, Nebraska
10,375 posts, read 8,017,262 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Loudmouth View Post
It seems like pretty much any time I go online in the Finance and Business website there are bold predictions sold as gospel by main stream media outlets that the stock or bond market is going to do something specific in 2015.
Well, both the stock market and the bond market ARE going to do something specific in 2015. The problem, of course, is that no one knows for sure what that specific thing is going to be.
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Old 02-26-2015, 11:32 PM
 
24,413 posts, read 27,038,900 times
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I also think people's stubbornness is to blame.

For example, Bob doesn't understand why the market is at record highs when in his mind we have a socialist Kenyan born sleeper terrorist as president. Bob then hears [EXPERT'S NAME] say the market is in a bubble and will crash soon, so he goes out and tells everyone and sells his stocks. The market continues up and he is embarrassed or too stubborn to admit he was wrong, which excuses the so-called expert's prediction.
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Old 02-27-2015, 06:50 AM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
5,907 posts, read 6,991,087 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Loudmouth View Post
there are bold predictions sold as gospel by main stream media outlets that the stock or bond market is going to do something specific in 2015.
Will you need the money this year (or within the next few)? If not, turn off the TV and invest regularly in a widely diversity portfolio. Investing is for the long term.
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Old 02-27-2015, 09:03 AM
 
12,022 posts, read 11,602,775 times
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It's sometimes gamed by the creators of these 'research' articles, if not often. They usually have conflicts of interest or an established position in the stock. Some people say to do the opposite of Cramer, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and so on. It's probably best to ignore the articles.
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Old 02-27-2015, 09:51 AM
 
2,806 posts, read 3,186,205 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bmw335xi View Post
I also think people's stubbornness is to blame.

For example, Bob doesn't understand why the market is at record highs when in his mind we have a socialist Kenyan born sleeper terrorist as president. Bob then hears [EXPERT'S NAME] say the market is in a bubble and will crash soon, so he goes out and tells everyone and sells his stocks. The market continues up and he is embarrassed or too stubborn to admit he was wrong, which excuses the so-called expert's prediction.
So true. Fox "News" profits greatly from President Obama and their stock has gone up mightily under his presidency whereas it floundered under President Bush. All the while they propagated the nonsense frightening people out of the market. Talk about doing the greatest disservice to your fellow compatriots possible.
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Old 02-27-2015, 10:29 AM
 
Location: East Coast of the United States
27,669 posts, read 28,761,723 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AmFest View Post
Not only that. I find it incredibly hard to retrieve the old predictions that turned out to be completely wrong.
Very Orwellian, isn't it?
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Old 02-27-2015, 10:35 AM
i7pXFLbhE3gq
 
n/a posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Loudmouth View Post
These experts must be right the majority of the time or they would be taken off the Internet, right?
No.

The network or web site has no interest in whether or not the advice is good. Their only concern is whether or not posting or airing those predictions draws viewers and brings in ad revenue.

People have selective memories and don't like to admit they're wrong, which provides a bit of a buffer against the audience reacting negatively to poor advice.
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