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I don' t think we can be more bearish in the near term. We all see and feel the same thing right now.
The only thing that differs is the strategy for dealing with the crappy outlook.
My strategy is indifference. If it doesn't fall anymore, oh well. I keep plugging along. If it turns into 2008 and it goes down by 50% I deploy a heavy position in cash and come out of it like the Kaiser.
On the other hand if it reverses you get lost in the dust like those in 2008 who swore it was a suckers rally and just kept waiting for that roll back . Then the cash hoard got nothing.
Trying to time this stuff and thinking in the end you will outsmart everyone else rarely works out that way
A lot of young people made a lot of money in 2007-2009 because they had just started maxing out their retirement accounts. Considering how early I am in the cycle and I am just starting to put substantial amounts of money in the market I like this type of market. Allows me to get a lot more in at lower levels.
Yep but if they don't move much over time it is mostly all your own contributions.
Those who had accumulated a decent size portfolio pre 2000 hit a brick wall on growth and have seen 1.70% real returns on average. If you checked your balance 16 years ago and fell a sleep for 16 years you would be like what the heck?
Yep but if they don't move much over time it is mostly all your own contributions.
Those who had accumulated a decent size portfolio pre 2000 hit a brick wall on growth and have seen 1.70% real returns on average. If you checked your balance 16 years ago and fell a sleep for 16 years you would be like what the heck?
First of all I am talking about the fact that best case scenario is that a large portion of your contributions are at the time of a down market, rather than towards the top of the market. Second of all The only way you got a real return of 1.7% over that time is if you never put another dime into your account after the crash happened, which isn't my case. My comment would be more along the lines of starting your real investing right after the 2000 crash. Third of all, do you really believe the market is in the same situation it was in 1999?
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107
Markets are determined by a whole kot more then p/e.
with corporate profits falling and estimates being cut these p/e's may be no bargain either.
S&p profits have fallen 15%. P/e's are around 21
What do the profits look like outside the oil industry?
Either way you are the one that should be worried not me. 15 years like 2000-2015 for you would really hurt you, it won't do much to me.
Whats yours (strategy)? I am curious.
I see this as an opportunity. I have been buying not he dips. But I do not think the volatility will last longer than 6 months.
Just sheer and pure wishful thinking.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107
I don' t think we can be more bearish in the near term. We all see and feel the same thing right now.
The only thing that differs is the strategy for dealing with the crappy outlook.
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