Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I bought a lot of IBM stocks, I was nervous Nellie for a long time. I didn't know why I own so many of a single stock. But in the last few days it was worth it. I sold all already, but the bad thing is it's in my non IRA account so now I have to pay tax on my gain.
The investment seeks long-term capital appreciation. The fund seeks to achieve its objective by normally investing at least 80% of its net assets (plus borrowings made for investment purposes) in common stocks and other equity securities of technology companies and in derivatives and other synthetic instruments that have economic characteristics similar to equity securities of technology companies. It is non-diversified.
Quote:
Also, MLAIX - MainStay Large Cap Growth I -------------> 10%
MLAIX is an expensive managed fund
Also JVMIX is a managed fund
Quote:
JVMIX - JHancock Disciplined Value Mid Cap I ----------> 25%
as you see when rates are below 3% the correlation is low , when they go above 3% they are highly correlated , which is most of history . the transition line which is where we are at with the 30 year bonds is wishy washy and can go either way .. you saw wed night when stocks tanked bonds tanked. then when stocks bounced back bonds stayed down
fear of higher rates tanks both bonds and stocks together . since sept. correlation has never been higher
with the exception of january , gold ,bonds and stocks have moved in lock step pretty much all year until just now .
whenever you get assets that are supposed to be non correlated moving together ,that is un-natural and that is what we have seen right after january .
you know when you get strange bedfellows like stocks ,bonds and gold moving together something at some point will happen unexpectedly . now we have gold and bonds moving down together undoing the rising together .
portfolio's like the permanent portfolio and its equal allocations to stock, bonds ,cash and gold had an amazing run up since all moved up together . but in the last 3 months have seen those gains fall by almost half .
you can see below that except for january ,all year gold ,bonds and stocks moved together .
Last edited by mathjak107; 11-12-2016 at 04:08 AM..
Oh, now we edge toward put downs? None of us, outside of the guys and gals in the biz are smart enough, have enough data, algorithms to outsmart the markets for long. Every one of us have our blindspots. It is why I use competent, low cost advice.
I know my limitations, don't seek to prove I am smarter than anyone. Here's edging toward put down; we all have our blind spots, that need to be smarter than everyone else. The key is to recognize that egotism; pride if you will, goes before the fall.
Done.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107
figures don't lie ,but liars can figure . you see it all the time being done .
the facts are the facts . if you looked wed night while stocks were plunging bonds were down . nuff said .
stocks and bonds have been following each other down since january in lockstep . they are correlated as rates rise . we are not talking out smarting the markets . we are just talking whether bonds are a smart move at this stage . cash and equity's may be better
this is not true at all . stocks and bonds are correlated and move together more often than they don't .
Simply looking at that chart shows your statement is wrong. Between 2002-2009 it looks like your statement is correct. The most recent data point shows a -.6 correlation, which means they move in the opposite direction. That chart shows that most of the time there is a very small relationship that flips between positive and negative with a lot of time spent around no correlation (which would be very good to have in a portfolio).
except for 35 years bonds rates have been falling . all we had is some minor speed bumps along the way .
you could buy and die with bonds and you would have had them adding to your portfolio .
in fact from 2000 to 2015 bonds beat equity's .
well apparently that came to end 3 months ago when bond rates flipped upwards . odds are you would have to have a black swan event temporarily dip bond rates in a flight to safety to see rates go lower again .
that would be betting on the flier .
if you are a long term investor, bonds as a solution to a market drop are a solution to a temporary problem that permanently hurts your long term gains forever .
so if we are talking long term money bonds can be hurtful to your growth .
unless you have a low pucker factor for volatility bonds really have no place in long term money .
however you do need to match your money to the time frame you will need it so normally bonds do have a use for money you need to eat today and tomorrow . that is not long term money .
today i would be very careful with that money ear marked in bonds . bond funds like total bond funds are not the best choice . there are many other types of bond funds and strategy's that are less interest rate and inflation sensitive .
here is a chart of the last 35 years . it was one big drop in rates for the most part .
that same trend that worked for you for 35 years may now work against you .
Simply looking at that chart shows your statement is wrong. Between 2002-2009 it looks like your statement is correct. The most recent data point shows a -.6 correlation, which means they move in the opposite direction. That chart shows that most of the time there is a very small relationship that flips between positive and negative with a lot of time spent around no correlation (which would be very good to have in a portfolio).
since feb they are moving together more than non correlating and that is what matters . the three asset catagory's gold ,bonds stocks almost duplicate each other .
for a few days this week they broke rank and stocks went up while bonds and gold plunged . but if stocks roll back they all may be moving lock step again.
we are mimicking stagflation , even if we don't have a tight money situation . in stagflation all asset classes move down together .
the good news is stagflation always leads to one of the 4 main outcomes eventually .
inflation
recession
depression
prosperity .
it is to early to tell which one , but it is the main reason i say portfolio's can't be buy and die anymore . they need to not time the markets , but they need nudging to stay on course like steering a big ship . at times they may need different types of bond and income funds or different strategy's to better fit the big picture as it unfolds ..
we are in uncharted waters never seen before with such low rates and high stock valuations and many commodity's taking a beating .
yes i do own quite a bit of bond funds at the moment but there may be a shift in allocations coming and the types of funds .
Last edited by mathjak107; 11-12-2016 at 07:02 AM..
since feb they are moving together more than non correlating and that is what matters . the three asset catagory's gold ,bonds stocks almost duplicate each other .
for a few days this week they broke rank and stocks went up while bonds and gold plunged . but if stocks roll back they all may be moving lock step again
So what matters is short term correlations in your retirement accounts that many people won't need for atleast 15-20 years, got it.
no , read what i wrote . my opinion is they should not be using bonds at any point if it is long term money.
did you read what i wrote ?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"if you are a long term investor, bonds as a solution to a market drop are a solution to a temporary problem that permanently hurts your long term gains forever .
so if we are talking long term money bonds can be hurtful to your growth .
unless you have a low pucker factor for volatility bonds really have no place in long term money ."
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
we are discussing those gun shy investors who insist on high bond allocations or those investors who have needs for that money in the shorter term and use bond funds like a total bond fund .
you likely will have to be a lot more selective as to the type of bond funds you use as opposed to throwing it in just a total bond fund .
TLT the long treasury bond fund has fallen 12% in 3 months including interest too . agg has fallen 2-1/4% the last 3 months and has lost about a years worth of interest .
Last edited by mathjak107; 11-12-2016 at 07:28 AM..
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
