Has there ever been a five year period a 50/50 (Total Stock Market and Total Bond Market) portfolio lost money?

[mathjak107]

here is a 60/40 which is pretty much the same as 50/50.

this is real return ,which is what counts .

[TwoByFour]

Originally Posted by Curious Investor

Has there ever been a five year or longer period a 50/50 (stock-bond) portfolio has lost money outside of the Great Depression?

If you are trying to assess the risk of the 50/50 portfolio, I would not be too dismissive of the GD. We have no idea what will happen in the future and if you are going to use the past as an indicator of the future, the GD period is just as valid as any other time segment.

One other thing - read the fine print on TIAA Traditional funds. There apparently are hedges in there about their pay-out guarantees

[mathjak107]

today i would not go 50/50 . as i said many times i believe more than ever now is the time to structure a portfolio to make money up or down , not just betting on prosperity and low rates .

looking at my models today i see the dow down 187 points at this moment . i track the same amount of dollars i actually have invested in the golden butterfly in a reference 60/40 mix of vti and a total bond fund for comparison purposes ..

the golden butterfly is up 7800.00 at the moment , gold and TLT treasury's are running with the ball . gold up 1.42% and long treasury's up .70%

the 60/40 mix is down 4500.00

[mathjak107]

a 50/50 is right from a risk vs performance stand point . the problem is most folks can not handle the volatility .

i ran a 50/50 in retirement right up to nov . there are days it saw a 35k swing in one session so dollar wise even 50/50 was rough for folks to handle .

the failed retirement grave yard is filled with 50/50 folks who bailed out in 2008 .


so yeah , numbers wise i would say 50/50 is optimum . but that does not mean at certain times i want to bet the ranch on prosperity and low rates only in order to have a positive return . nor does it mean you need to tolerate those swings to see the same or better returns . .

hence my change to a more all weather portfolio that not only has beaten the returns of a 60/40 mix since 1972 over many more scenarios but it makes money up or down .


no the fidelity newsletter is only a bet right now on prosperity and low rates . they pretty much are only stock funds and bond funds now . they use their own proprietary models .

i may very well switch back at some point , but with years of great gains in my pocket and being retired , and all this uncertainty , i don't want to wait years to recover . i still want gain potential even if we go down in stocks .

since i started i am ahead of where a 60/40 is as stocks stalled , and even further ahead from a 50/50 with less daily volatility over all .