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In the long term, falling rates are still bad. It means we're spiralling into stagnation like Japan. I would much rather have 5% yields, even if that means major losses on fixed income. Those losses can be recouped with time. This constant yield decline is far more worrisome.
So far though it just seems to be greed ,fear and perception bringing yields down ...the economy is still quite good... with oil prices low I think we are okay ....we have not had a modern day Recession that did not have oil prices high on an inflation adjusted basis
If oil is truly the mainstay for inflation (and it makes sense) we could see some shifts. If nearly half of oil is used for gasoline, with another fifth or so for diesel and heating oil and 15% or so for propane and jetfuels.....then ship oil and asphault after that rounding out the big uses of the stuff....then I wouldn't expect much of an increase in the near future.
While electric cars are still a sideshow...fuel efficiency in gasoline powered vehicles has really taken off. I have a full size hybrid Lexus. I fill it up maybe once a month. Even in commute traffic, I still get 30+ mpg...and i wasn't even looking at fuel economy when I went shopping. It's hit a tipping point and it's just happening. If we look at the top selling vehicle, the Ford F150, we see the diesel can now get nearly 30 mpg and the gasoline models range in the 20's. Nothing compared models build for fuel economy, but certainly better than a decade ago when the trucks were hitting the teens.
I think oil's had its peak. It's not coal, but with fracking and refining built in the US, there's enough swing demand now that the spikes of before are less likely now.
Even as I say that, I'm over in materials and banks waiting for the traditional late stage....but I really don't think I'm going to get it. This economy has positively purred forward. With enough central banks all scratching their heads trying to look at ways to sop up excess liquidity for balance sheet purposes to simply scare off any inflation.
So far though it just seems to be greed ,fear and perception bringing yields down ...the economy is still quite good... with oil prices low I think we are okay ....we have not had a modern day Recession that did not have oil prices high on an inflation adjusted basis
With millions of Americans having work place savings plans and many of those being in 100% invested passive funds. Isn’t that money going in monthly with minimal concern about valuations?
The crisis is if people actually learn how to pull the plug on their workplace investing choices.
With millions of Americans having work place savings plans and many of those being in 100% invested passive funds. Isn’t that money going in monthly with minimal concern about valuations?
The crisis is if people actually learn how to pull the plug on their workplace investing choices.
investors Still control prices daily on bonds and stock regardless of money dollar cost averaging in. This is how markets work ...... investors bid rates lower ..in fact the fed fund futures were already bit down in to position before the fed even cut rates
With millions of Americans having work place savings plans and many of those being in 100% invested passive funds. Isn’t that money going in monthly with minimal concern about valuations?
The crisis is if people actually learn how to pull the plug on their workplace investing choices.
I don’t think that most people would even WANT to “pull the plug”. Why would they?
I don’t think that most people would even WANT to “pull the plug”. Why would they?
Which cohort = "most" in the discussion?
As regards the retired (& close to), who will no longer have earned income (let alone decades) to recover with...
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