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Odds are markets will respond and go up before there is any indication anything is better ....we all been there and tried that ...the biggest gains are always early on when everyone thinks it is a suckers rally .....
The age old question is of course ,,, If a down turn matters now , why were There no adjustments when we were up and could have preserved 60k ?
This is why I talk about the proverbial carrot on the stick when you get close or are in retirement....
It is also why I talk about all weather portfolios all the time at market highs ....
This is all true. I just have left everything alone over the years. Getting close to retirement is something that I have not prepared for.
I have lost around 60k. If things don't get better tomorrow will be moving to bonds and treasury.
I have lost $65,000 to date, in my view we have a bit more of a rough ride (max 10% more, MAX that is my personal view of course)... I wouldn't do anything radical as this is a terrible time to sell your equity positions, it's already gone down a lot. Stay the course, we will retrace the losses.
Unfortunately I looked, wished I had not! And the futures are down triple digits again so tomorrow there is going to be even more carnage in the markets... I think this isn't stopping anytime soon. We have to be prepared for a total drawdown from the high of 20% or more.
I have lost $65,000 to date, in my view we have a bit more of a rough ride (max 10% more, MAX that is my personal view of course)... I wouldn't do anything radical as this is a terrible time to sell your equity positions, it's already gone down a lot. Stay the course, we will retrace the losses.
If this was just one of the normal market drops that we experience all the time then I would not be that worried. This time the market is making major drops for a virus. It is unknown how long this will go on. These could be long term drops. Also an election year with someone running that could also cause more market drops.
I know that conventional wisdom is to hold tight. I'm not sure that conventional wisdom applies in this situation.
I know that conventional wisdom is to hold tight. I'm not sure that conventional wisdom applies in this situation.
The uncertainty is why we are in this situation. We do not know what is going to happen. I am going to stay the course. I suppose if the worst happens, money will be the least of our concerns.
i am now flat for the year ..though down about 100k from the high .
looking at the fidelity insight models i show the ytd and gain or loss on a million dollar portfolio from ytd :
income model which is 25% equities down just .32% , down 3200...
the growth and income model down 2.18% down 21,800
the 100% equity growth model is down 5.31% down 53,100
the sector model is down 6.41% down 64,100
for comparison the all weather permanent portfolio is up 3.50% with it's 25% total market fund , 25% long term treasuries , 25% gold , 25% short term treasuries .. UP
35,000
you can see how the growth model has to come back 88,100 dollars just to get back to where the conservative permanent portfolio is .
Last edited by mathjak107; 02-28-2020 at 02:31 AM..
That's off the high though. Can a person really go by that?
you can go by any criteria you like .
that is my benchmark . at this point 7% is 10 years of 401k contributions at catch up . to me that is a lot more meaningful than just 7% .
after all , 7% if i was in my days starting out may be a few months contributions , not a decade .
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