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Old 01-13-2022, 05:50 AM
 
7,747 posts, read 3,778,838 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BalloonLady View Post
What is a realistic gain to expect for the next 17 years with SPY?
Real? Or Nominal?

Do you mean the actual fund SPY, or do you mean the S&P 500?

A point estimate is interesting, but it is really about the 95% or 99% confidence interval surrounding that point estimate.
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Old 01-13-2022, 06:07 AM
 
Location: Valley of the Sun
2,619 posts, read 2,332,726 times
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I always use a 6% return when calculating extended gains. This helps you plan on the conservative side for what you might have for retirement. I plan my savings amount around this 6% return when using asset calculators and for tracking my target investment worth near retirement in roughly 25 years.
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Old 01-13-2022, 06:53 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lewdog_5 View Post
I always use a 6% return when calculating extended gains. This helps you plan on the conservative side for what you might have for retirement. I plan my savings amount around this 6% return when using asset calculators and for tracking my target investment worth near retirement in roughly 25 years.
Same.

Vanguard is/was saying expect 5% over the next few years.
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Old 01-13-2022, 07:12 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lewdog_5 View Post
I always use a 6% return when calculating extended gains. This helps you plan on the conservative side for what you might have for retirement. I plan my savings amount around this 6% return when using asset calculators and for tracking my target investment worth near retirement in roughly 25 years.
Real or nominal? What standard error do you typically use for planning purposes?
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Old 01-13-2022, 07:16 AM
 
Location: Pennsylvania
31,340 posts, read 14,247,595 times
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Again. Why are you guys trying to calculate returns as long as 17 years out into the future?
INFLATION and possible interest rate increases are a game changer. Since nobody knows how high inflation is going to go, it's impossible to predict stock market returns.
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Old 01-13-2022, 07:32 AM
 
Location: Boston
2,435 posts, read 1,317,904 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BalloonLady View Post
At age 70.5, is when I want to take rmd's. Planning a gain of 7.5% but does anyone think, at that point, it may have produced 12.5% gains in 17 years? It varies where-ever I read it, but it seems to do 10% over a few decades, on average.

Thank you
I tend to go very conservative in my planning so I go with 3%. We've had some good years, but there will be some bad years in the next 20 that will bring those returns down to earth.

I also assume Social Security of $0 in calculating my projected take-home since I don't want to count on it paying what it does today (if it's even solvent). Additionally, I ignore my real estate equity as it's not liquid (and I'm not going to borrow against a roof over my head).

The downside to this is it means my retirement number to safely retire is much higher, but the upside is that I'm statistically more likely to have more than I need in retirement. I think of it as planning on the idea it's better to have and not need than need and not have.
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Old 01-13-2022, 07:43 AM
 
9,382 posts, read 8,345,252 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerGeek40 View Post
Again. Why are you guys trying to calculate returns as long as 17 years out into the future?
INFLATION and possible interest rate increases are a game changer. Since nobody knows how high inflation is going to go, it's impossible to predict stock market returns.
I assume OP has some sort of online calculator where he/she is trying to plan to see what type of balance they will have at a certain age given X% return, so they are asking about what number to use for X in that equation. People here aren't necessarily guessing at the return, they've giving him/her insight as to what they use for this calculation.

Personally, I use around 7% gain annually for my calcs, and I feel that's conservative-ish.
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Old 01-13-2022, 07:47 AM
 
Location: Valley of the Sun
2,619 posts, read 2,332,726 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerGeek40 View Post
Again. Why are you guys trying to calculate returns as long as 17 years out into the future?
INFLATION and possible interest rate increases are a game changer. Since nobody knows how high inflation is going to go, it's impossible to predict stock market returns.
Because I’d like to project a certain amount of money I’ll have just in investments, decades out to retirement. If my goal is 2M, I want to know how much per month, at 6% returns, I need to invest to achieve such an amount.
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Old 01-13-2022, 07:54 AM
 
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Lots of online calculators available to figure out when a certain $$$ goal will be reached based on starting amount, % ROI, compounding frequency and amount and frequency of contributions.

Run the calculation for lots of different ROI assumptions, and you get a good picture of how much is needed to invest.
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Old 01-13-2022, 09:22 AM
 
Location: East Coast of the United States
27,549 posts, read 28,630,498 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerGeek40 View Post
Why are you guys trying to calculate returns as long as 17 years out into the future?
I thought everybody did that.

Isn't the whole point of investing to set long-term goals?
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