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I’m feeling quite confident in my 3+ year selection. Looks like stagflation to me.
Glad to see you back posting! I'm sticking with my midterm election timeframe. It's been a solid streak since WWII, and it's one I hope will keep in tact for many more decades.
Glad to see you back posting! I'm sticking with my midterm election timeframe. It's been a solid streak since WWII, and it's one I hope will keep in tact for many more decades.
You’re expecting the S&P to recapture all time highs by early November?!?
You’re expecting the S&P to recapture all time highs by early November?!?
I can't imagine anyone thinking that. This year is a tanker for sure. My highs were Dec 29 and I am a long way off from those numbers, and even more after today. I doubt I'll see those numbers again until late next year, especially as I am no longer contributing since retirement.
What, have you not paid attention to my earlier posts? The year after midterm elections since WWII have all been positive for the S&P.
Oh, so you’re saying new all time highs sometime next year, not this year? I thought before you said you voted within one year on this poll. It’s possible we see a return to all time highs late next year but that’s best case scenario imo. I think it’s more likely we don’t get back until 2025. I think it’s going to take another 2-3 years to get back to where we were.
Oh, so you’re saying new all time highs sometime next year, not this year? I thought before you said you voted within one year on this poll. It’s possible we see a return to all time highs late next year but that’s best case scenario imo. I think it’s more likely we don’t get back until 2025. I think it’s going to take another 2-3 years to get back to where we were.
I voted in the 1-2 year group. I wanted to share my reason with the data on the stats regarding the positive return in the third year of each presidency since WWII. Time will tell, and I hope for all of our sakes it's not 2-3 years!
I voted in the 1-2 year group. I wanted to share my reason with the data on the stats regarding the positive return in the third year of each presidency since WWII. Time will tell, and I hope for all of our sakes it's not 2-3 years!
I don't know - 2-3 years isn't really all that long, but it would make for a good, long buying opportunity!
I voted in the 1-2 year group. I wanted to share my reason with the data on the stats regarding the positive return in the third year of each presidency since WWII. Time will tell, and I hope for all of our sakes it's not 2-3 years!
3+ years would be perfectly normal considering the runup the market had leading into this year. Consider that it took more than 7 years to regain the dotcom peak and pre-GFC peak. I don’t think this one will be as stretched out as those but expecting a return to ATH any time within the next 12 months is overly optimistic imo. There’s been a lot of damage done and it’s going to take some time to recover. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market retest the June lows again this year. Just hoping it holds!
3+ years would be perfectly normal considering the runup the market had leading into this year. Consider that it took more than 7 years to regain the dotcom peak and pre-GFC peak. I don’t think this one will be as stretched out as those but expecting a return to ATH any time within the next 12 months is overly optimistic imo. There’s been a lot of damage done and it’s going to take some time to recover. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market retest the June lows again this year. Just hoping it holds!
The market just-barely recovered in the summer of 2007, retracing the highs of the spring of 2000. It then promptly fell. It took another 6-7 years for the headline numbers (that is, not including reinvestment of dividends) to recover to the highs of 2000. That's 13-14 years of cumulative zero growth. That is in raw dollar terms... not inflation-adjusted terms!
Some markets, such as in places in Europe, are cumulatively negative for the entire 21st century, in dollar-denominated terms. Indeed, the unmentioned crisis of our times, is the ridiculous appreciation in the US dollar, relative to most other currencies.
The market just-barely recovered in the summer of 2007, retracing the highs of the spring of 2000. It then promptly fell. It took another 6-7 years for the headline numbers (that is, not including reinvestment of dividends) to recover to the highs of 2000. That's 13-14 years of cumulative zero growth. That is in raw dollar terms... not inflation-adjusted terms!
Some markets, such as in places in Europe, are cumulatively negative for the entire 21st century, in dollar-denominated terms. Indeed, the unmentioned crisis of our times, is the ridiculous appreciation in the US dollar, relative to most other currencies.
Correct. The only reason my portfolio is green over the past 4 months is due to option selling. Daily volatility has increased option premiums even though the market has generally been range bound since late April.
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