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1. SPX will go above 4500 at some point in 2023
2. SPX will drop below 3000 at some point in 2023
3. Neither 1 nor 2, some small ups and some small downs
I mean, it's only 384 pts away from 4,500 at this point. All it takes is one solid month of good earning reports, the Fed halting interest rates, and/or a lower than expected inflation report to get us there.
I mean, it's only 384 pts away from 4,500 at this point. All it takes is one solid month of good earning reports, the Fed halting interest rates, and/or a lower than expected inflation report to get us there.
Very optimistic. I voted 2. Maybe there will be more bank failure, more layoff, economy falls apart...
I voted #3 but don’t think they’ll be small moves. I think we will whipsaw in a range for a few months before another leg down this Fall and ultimately close this year red again but not 3,000 or lower.
Vote for #3... I think markets have priced in the downside already, I see the market going nowhere for the next couple of years. I doubt markets will crash as everyone is expecting that, crashes usually happen with unexpected news - I don't see any negative news that isn't already known to the market.
1. SPX will go above 4500 at some point in 2023
2. SPX will drop below 3000 at some point in 2023
3. Neither 1 nor 2, some small ups and some small downs
Your upside, based on the SP500 close of about 4,100 on 4/11/23 is only +400 but your downside is -1,100? If the market closed at around 3,200 I wouldn't necessarily consider that some "small downs", especially when the market is still down some 14% or so from it's all time high.
Some are saying this is a bear market rally analogous to those we had in the past, the difference now is that we have been going sideways for quite a while. Bear market rallies are usually v shape - rapid up followed by rapid down.
We have been churning for several months now so in my view this isn't a bear market rally.
Some are saying this is a bear market rally analogous to those we had in the past, the difference now is that we have been going sideways for quite a while. Bear market rallies are usually v shape - rapid up followed by rapid down.
We have been churning for several months now so in my view this isn't a bear market rally.
There was an awful lot of upwards to sideways movement in the first half of 2008 as well. Just sayin’
There was an awful lot of upwards to sideways movement in the first half of 2008 as well. Just sayin’
2008 was preceded by 2007, which was a record-setting year. 2007 was preceded by 2006, which witnessed a steady increase and a convincing climb back from the morass of 2002-2003. It was only in the final 2-3 months of 2007, that we saw initial tremors or teetering.
Back in the summer of 2021, small-caps were already cracking. By December 2021, they were in serious decline. 2022 was a year of tumult and decline. Yes, we're higher now, than in September-October 2022... whereupon we were 25% down in American large-caps (more, in international or in small-caps). But if we're going to use historical analogy, how does it follow, that so-far, 2023 resembles the early part of 2008? I would say instead, that it resembles 2011.
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