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If you watched the video you would realize they used a bigger sample (106 years) and came up with 3%.
the industry standard is 4% right up until 2024 with 35-50% equities for 30 years . it has not changed despite these self proclaimed experts who are not.
you do what you want and follow who you want but i only follow the acknowledged top guys in the field.
no reason not to . already got 9 years in and can can increase the draw well beyond 4% at this point if i wanted to
I always wondered how many people who say they retired at, say 50, were genuinely retired. From my own personal experience and that of observing people around me is that they very few are retired at least in the traditional sense where they have stopped working altogether. Seems like a lot of these people have skill sets and knowledge that allow them to pop in and out of the workforce to do some occasional consulting, returning to a previous employer/client for short term work, etc. and this continues for years….often after 67 (FRA for many folks).
I only mention it because I think there are a lot of “early retirees” who can generate income streams (some times significant) to supplement any planned withdrawals from their nest eggs. Instead of “worrying” about withdrawal rates, they can choose to work more (or less) to allow them to maintain certain spending levels. I understand that if they spend current income instead of drawing down their best egg, it is effectively “tweaking” their withdrawl rate, but I’m not sure that’s exactly the thinking early retirees have. I guess, what I am saying is that many early retirees have the luxury of not having to stress about withdrawl rates too much because they can generate income streams through temporary employment as needed.
I retired at the age of 50, but I still owned rental houses and had two semi-trucks. I even held a CDL. For a few years, I had a contract that lasted from June 1 to August 31 each year. The contract was for only hook-and-drop trailers all over the Lower 48 and Canada. If I remember correctly, the pay was $1.25 per mile with empty trailers or bobtailing. This was 30 years ago.
Once a year, I would kiss my wife goodbye and hit the road for three months. It was like running away from home, traveling across the country, and getting paid. The contract was with a large international company, but the dispatch wasn't well-organized. I took advantage of this by communicating with them over the phone. They assigned me five to six pickups and drops at a time.
After driving 600 miles, I found that the trailer was not at the location. However, I was still getting paid. So, I started calling ahead to find out if the trailers were at the location. If not, I parked at a truck stop, called in, and told them that I was at the location but the trailer was not. I would get paid for the miles to and from the location to my next pickup. I was paid very well, but my major concern was my logbooks.
I generate income streams from my investments, not from working. Seven years into early retirement and won't be collecting SS for another 4 years.
My planning horizon started at 40 years.
That’s terrific. It’s always inspiring to see someone who is literally retired, and comfortably and confidently living off the nest egg they have accumulated.
Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
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Originally Posted by WVNomad
That’s terrific. It’s always inspiring to see someone who is literally retired, and comfortably and confidently living off the nest egg they have accumulated.
That's probably most of us who have time to post here.
Next month starts my 20th yr out of the workforce / wage income. (No pension, no HC, no inheritance).
Haven't touched "qualified" funds yet. Finally reached FRA, and Medicare age. (Nice perk, but not inexpensive.)
Investment balances are ~4x when I retired. But that's not terribly impressive using the rule of 72. 2024 returns so far are 2x my highest ever annual salary. (No big earning bucks led to early retirement).
Lucky I guess (as are most of us)
There is no fear of running out of money, but running out of life is a certainty!
It takes very little dough to live very well.
Lucky, I guess
Probably live overseas once we consolidate investment properties. (Sold 2 last week) Only a few more to go.
Still have several view lots, so could always build and sell and collect $500k tax free gains every 24 months. If we needed so spending money. With the ACA available pre-age 65, there is little need to work if you have subsistence savings or income.
Guess that's why there are lots of jobs. Stopped into Bucees yesterday. Lots of jobs posted $100k-$225k. No degree required. (They 'grow-their-own' managers). Wages are well over 10x from where I started. Housing is higher, but not if you are creative. (I would be a renter, and make a lot more investment income than tying up equity in real property (illiquid).). Btdt, and it's ugly as an "investment."
the industry standard is 4% right up until 2024 with 35-50% equities for 30 years . it has not changed despite these self proclaimed experts who are not.
you do what you want and follow who you want but i only follow the acknowledged top guys in the field.
no reason not to . already got 9 years in and can can increase the draw well beyond 4% at this point if i wanted to
The 4% rule was back tested in 1994 from 1926 forward and is a 30 year retirement.
It's a 30 year old rule. Much like Firecalc you do not get to see the underlying data and just have to take their word for it.
I think it's better to look at your own portfolio and decide how much to withdraw.
The guy in the video was making some valid points.
That’s terrific. It’s always inspiring to see someone who is literally retired, and comfortably and confidently living off the nest egg they have accumulated.
Thanks!
Did a lot of research and planning in the year before, even read small parts of the tax code, really got it all dialed-in. I knew a layoff was coming, I knew I'd be on the list, and I wanted to get a package. The timing worked out perfectly and I got laid off. Danced my way out of there with a big grin on my face, after some people insisted I wasn't really retiring.
The 4% rule was back tested in 1994 from 1926 forward and is a 30 year retirement.
It's a 30 year old rule. Much like Firecalc you do not get to see the underlying data and just have to take their word for it.
I think it's better to look at your own portfolio and decide how much to withdraw.
The guy in the video was making some valid points.
this is false …
the updated trinity goes back to 1871 , firecalc goes back to 1871
the data is the exact outcomes of every year easily tracked on something like portfolio visualizer or any service that tracks yearly data
the data consists of not one 30 year period at all , especially the shiller data set when used
it’s not one 30 year period but 123 rolling 30 year time frames .
all different from the other in events and outcomes
i have no idea why you are so hell bent in arguing about something that is the industry standard for decades with no sign of not being correct .
you are just bringing up foolish arguments . you really have no idea what you are talking about and seem to just be shooting from the hip with no actual understanding of any of this . especially based on the above comment
if you have any questions as to data you know you can ask it on the other forum and dory will even reply
further more people don’t know what they can safely draw .
all we know is we have a pile of money we need to last longer then we do despite not being able to predict the future .
all this is a starting point and gauge to get one in at least a starting ball park .
after that your own spending and investment returns will determine where you go . which is why their are rules and research for what to do down the road as well
math does not care what you want to do or draw .. at the end of the day it wins …if your outcome isn’t up to par mathematically your money will end before you do.
every draw rate has been shown to already have had a high rate of success or being a pipe dream and a prayer .
i don’t understand why you keep trying to reinvent the wheel here
Last edited by mathjak107; 04-14-2024 at 04:04 AM..
the updated trinity goes back to 1871 , firecalc goes back to 1871
the data is the exact outcomes of every year easily tracked on something like portfolio visualizer or any service that tracks yearly data
the data consists of not one 30 year period at all , especially the shiller data set when used
it’s not one 30 year period but 123 rolling 30 year time frames .
all different from the other in events and outcomes
i have no idea why you are so hell bent in arguing about something that is the industry standard for decades with no sign of not being correct .
you are just bringing up foolish arguments . you really have no idea what you are talking about and seem to just be shooting from the hip with no actual understanding of any of this . especially based on the above comment
if you have any questions as to data you know you can ask it on the other forum and dory will even reply
further more people don’t know what they can safely draw .
all we know is we have a pile of money we need to last longer then we do despite not being able to predict the future .
all this is a starting point and gauge to get one in at least a starting ball park .
after that your own spending and investment returns will determine where you go . which is why their are rules and research for what to do down the road as well
math does not care what you want to do or draw .. at the end of the day it wins …if your outcome isn’t up to par mathematically your money will end before you do.
every draw rate has been shown to already have had a high rate of success or being a pipe dream and a prayer .
i don’t understand why you keep trying to reinvent the wheel here
I think it points out why people are afraid to spend their nest egg.
Not really reinventing the wheel. Just questioning the wheel. I don't buy into 4% with all the inflation we are experiencing.
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