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Call it correction or whatever, but I do believe we are running headlong towards a massive recession in the next two years.
You cant predict massive recessions but nice try. That’s also a ridiculous timeline. 2 years which in reality if a recession would come in 3 years you could still claim you where close.
You cant predict massive recessions but nice try. That’s also a ridiculous timeline. 2 years which in reality if a recession would come in 3 years you could still claim you where close.
You might not be able to predict recessions, but some of us can. Put another way; I would still be fully invested here, but I would have my head on a swivel.
let us know the day you sell and the day you buy back in ..
everyone seems to think they have that sense for what’s next .
timers come and go here . all claim they have their head on a swivel and will know what to do
but you seemed to have dropped the ball with zroz as far as making it one of your big picks and watching it , now down about 16% ytd as well as Ung down to 14.52 .
i think you bought over 18.
didn’t the swivel see this coming ?
Last edited by mathjak107; 04-21-2024 at 12:11 PM..
UNG got thrown out for a $200 dollar loss, which roughly matches the $189 dollar gain from last year. Admittedly commodities are poor for holding long term, and makes it hard to avoid short-term capital gains taxes.
ZROZ I am still in, and I even added 8 shares of VMBS recently (mortgage backed holdings).
I don't like anyone who disregards risks to stocks, and shrugging off corrections/recessions is something I view as poor behavior. Even if the doom-sayers here sound like a broken record.
Yes and that's all true... but if you're say, a 67 year-old soon to be retiree with a lot of stock exposure, wouldn't it be prudent to sell out? Especially if you've already reached your financial retirement goals. Why risk your standard of living in retirement? I'd imagine some people are in different positions on these forum boards and I think their concern is justified. Maybe they shouldn't have so much invested but you get the point.
The irony is that I am young enough where time is on my side, and I should be dollar cost averaging into a mutual fund every paycheck until retirement yet I don't.
in fact research by pfau , kitces and blanchette show seniors who live off their portfolio should be using a rising glide path to equities , increasing them as one goes deeper in to retirement up to about 60% or so .
so one would reduce to about 35-40% equities about 5-8 years before retirement, hold it thru the red zone ( No market timing )
that avoids big dollar hits when your portfolio is the highest .
then once thru the red zone increase equities to about 60%
i am thru my red zone and am currently 53% equities, 37% bonds , 13% cash
Yes and that's all true... but if you're say, a 67 year-old soon to be retiree with a lot of stock exposure, wouldn't it be prudent to sell out? Especially if you've already reached your financial retirement goals. Why risk your standard of living in retirement? I'd imagine some people are in different positions on these forum boards and I think their concern is justified. Maybe they shouldn't have so much invested but you get the point.
The irony is that I am young enough where time is on my side, and I should be dollar cost averaging into a mutual fund every paycheck until retirement yet I don't.
not dollar cost averaging in all the time is a big mistake .
markets are up 2/3s of the time and down only 1/3 .
coupled with higher highs and higher lows the little bits you may buy in are small in comparison to what you will be missing over time .
listen , you can do what you want , and you seem pretty sharp , but you are making amateur mistakes in my opinion .
especially in what you think about the level of equities needed to sustain a safe , secure , consistent income in retirement.
far better to use equities and fixed income in healthy ratios so you have a high success rate at 4% inflation adjusted .
even if you want to draw 3% , planning for a better cushion at 4% is far better then using little or no equities and planning for a 3% draw with a portfolio that is only capable of 3% inflation adjusted and little slack
4% requires about 40-60% equities, fixed income can only support 3% or so safely over typical 30 year planning
Yes and that's all true... but if you're say, a 67 year-old soon to be retiree with a lot of stock exposure, wouldn't it be prudent to sell out? Especially if you've already reached your financial retirement goals. Why risk your standard of living in retirement? I'd imagine some people are in different positions on these forum boards and I think their concern is justified. Maybe they shouldn't have so much invested but you get the point.
The irony is that I am young enough where time is on my side, and I should be dollar cost averaging into a mutual fund every paycheck until retirement yet I don't.
It is always advised that the closer you are to retirement the less risky assets you should be invested in. I would never sell out of all my stocks though.
I'm guilty of loss aversion but I'll find a pathway back in. I'm building a starter position in FXI (China large caps) and also looking at Eli Lilly, Genuine Parts Company, and Palo Alto Networks. Genuine Parts just had a big gap-up so I'll probably wait for a pull back on that.
I like the glidepath plan, I was under the impression you only liked buying and holding an index or the like.
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