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Its 3-days of gains and quickly recovered a large chunk of what was lost the last couple of weeks... what is going on? What is with all the positive motions? I mean hear bad news like government debt, Goldman Sachs manipulating market and earning itself a big chunk of money, etc. etc. but stocks are up... I hope the trend keeps going.. up 250 points... that's what I call a good day... everything in my portfolio is up..
I recall that after the dot.com bubble burst the Dow traded sideways around the 9500 level for quite some time, perhaps 3-4 years, until it raced towards 14,000 in the midst of the housing credit bubble.
Unless the bottom falls out of the global industrialized economy, I expect it to trade sideways around 8000 for quite some time, perhaps even 7-10 years, look at the Nikkei, for example.
Maybe some of you chartists can put real numbers on these armchair recollections.
Unless the bottom falls out of the global industrialized economy, I expect it to trade sideways around 8000 for quite some time, perhaps even 7-10 years, look at the Nikkei, for example.
earnings this quarter were driven by government spending. some pop over the short term at the expense of future generations. I guess the scheme can go on for a few more years. The game stops when the government can no longer service the interest on the debt, let alone pay for anything else. I reckon that's a few years out. 11 trillion at 5% interest amounts to $550 billion a year. I wonder what kind of revenue the government is going to bring in over the coming years when they are destroying/nationalizing the private sector. Can rates stay low forever? Can government reinflate the credit bubble by taking the place of the tapped out consumer (which is in no position to borrow and spend over the next decade). Interesting times we live in. I'm sitting in cash right now, but do own physical silver as an inflation hedge. Too many big money players out there. The government interference/rule changing in the market place makes me wanna take my chips elsewhere.
Last edited by Philosophizer; 07-15-2009 at 09:21 PM..
"The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, as the VIX is known, gained 3.5 percent to 25.89. The S&P 500 added 3 percent, giving it a 6.1 percent gain since July 10. They have both advanced 25 times since the subprime crisis began in August 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The next day, the S&P 500 fell 18 times for an average loss of 1.6 percent."
There's still a lot of volatility out there, it'll be interesting to see what the market does on Friday when the traders decide how much profit they want to take out of the market. VIX Advances With S&P 500 as Traders See Higher Risk for Stocks - Bloomberg.com
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