Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
The Alpha Natural Resources item just broke this morning, but you could see the writing on the wall for a long time. Coal has been in decline for years, Obama pounded it more, and in hindsight, the Massey buyout looks stupid. I'd wager this will mean substantial job losses down the line.
In other news last week, Ball Corporation in Bristol, VA is shuttering - eliminating about 230 positions. From what I've read, these were well-paying union jobs and are not likely to be replaced in the area. Most of the employees there probably won't get such a good job again.
It is hard for local legislators to get behind the new technologies which are creating more, higher paying jobs, than those left behind by a moribund coal industry. I believe their fear is that they will lose the "coal" vote, be perceived as being too liberal, and will not get elected.
If they could wrap their heads around the facts (remember it was just a month or so ago that Corker and Alexander here in Tennessee referred to wind and solar as "the energy fad of the day") and sell to their voters that these new technologies, which are here to stay while coal fades into the sunset, can (and do!) provide more plentiful, higher paying, lower risk jobs which would be good for the area.
But they can't let go. Whether it is philosophical, or simply political, we don't know. But in the meantime, the jobs continue to deteriorate while better jobs go to places in the country where they are more welcome.
Coal is NOT coming back. They can postpone the inevitable, but the world has moved on. And so have the jobs.
1. There is no substitute for metallurgical coal in the steel making process. Met coal is suffering from historically low prices due to the poor economy worldwide.
2. Solar isn't going to do much for SW VA. Wind is debatable, however, if it was economically feasible, I suspect some land owners would be trying it. A wind site was discussed on the location of a former coal mine but I don't believe anything came of that. I don't think your "new technologies" are suitable to the terrain, regardless of how backward the people/politicians are.
3. Obama set out to kill coal and he's accomplished that mission. I'm not going to debate whether that is good or bad.
4. It's hard to say if coal could come back or not, Washington would have to stop suffocating it to find out.
It is hard for local legislators to get behind the new technologies which are creating more, higher paying jobs, than those left behind by a moribund coal industry. I believe their fear is that they will lose the "coal" vote, be perceived as being too liberal, and will not get elected.
If they could wrap their heads around the facts (remember it was just a month or so ago that Corker and Alexander here in Tennessee referred to wind and solar as "the energy fad of the day") and sell to their voters that these new technologies, which are here to stay while coal fades into the sunset, can (and do!) provide more plentiful, higher paying, lower risk jobs which would be good for the area.
But they can't let go. Whether it is philosophical, or simply political, we don't know. But in the meantime, the jobs continue to deteriorate while better jobs go to places in the country where they are more welcome.
Coal is NOT coming back. They can postpone the inevitable, but the world has moved on. And so have the jobs.
I don't think solar and wind are any sort of saving grace. Wind might be able to do a little something in southwest VA, but I don't there is enough flat land to really get it going on a big scale, and it's not going to employ a lot of people.
I think the area needs to completely rethink what it's trying to do. The area was always dependent on manufacturing and mining, which have been on the decline for years, and local politicians, educators, and business leaders have failed to account for this. We're to the point now where the good paying jobs have hemorrhaged out and we're trying to incentivize whatever we can - including low wage junk jobs that wouldn't get these incentives in normal areas.
I do think wind and solar have potential, however the job numbers aren't going to be close to what you have with coal. Adventure tourism is another possibility but that has already been done in SE Kentucky and there is only so much of a market. That whole region was born and prospered due to coal and will die because of coal. The population has been in decline for years and will continue into the future. I don't think these towns will every completely die but will become sleepy exurbs relying 100% on the Tri-Cities for basic needs.
The topography of the region makes any sort of large-scale manufacturing a tough prospect and the sparse population and lack of an educated population further complicates efforts to recruit industry. Plus, Tennessee has an edge on business recruitment compared to Virginia due to its tax structure.
Quote:
I think the area needs to completely rethink what it's trying to do. The area was always dependent on manufacturing and mining, which have been on the decline for years, and local politicians, educators, and business leaders have failed to account for this. We're to the point now where the good paying jobs have hemorrhaged out and we're trying to incentivize whatever we can - including low wage junk jobs that wouldn't get these incentives in normal areas.
I think this is where you really see a split in the Tri-Cities. The Kingsport/Bristol MSA was (and still is) largely dependent on manufacturing and mining and is basically being kept afloat by Eastman. The Johnson City MSA, however, was never as manufacturing-dependent and is reaping the benefits of that now. The decline of mining and manufacturing will continue to hurt Kingsport and Bristol although as long as Eastman remains successful and Bristol continues to develop its tourist scene, I think these area will be ok. Johnson City stands to prosper with the growing medical industry and the potential for significant research dollars to come into the medical school. Johnson City is in the best position to be the location of any higher paying jobs that come to the region.
I do think wind and solar have potential, however the job numbers aren't going to be close to what you have with coal. Adventure tourism is another possibility but that has already been done in SE Kentucky and there is only so much of a market. That whole region was born and prospered due to coal and will die because of coal. The population has been in decline for years and will continue into the future. I don't think these towns will every completely die but will become sleepy exurbs relying 100% on the Tri-Cities for basic needs.
The topography of the region makes any sort of large-scale manufacturing a tough prospect and the sparse population and lack of an educated population further complicates efforts to recruit industry. Plus, Tennessee has an edge on business recruitment compared to Virginia due to its tax structure.
I think this is where you really see a split in the Tri-Cities. The Kingsport/Bristol MSA was (and still is) largely dependent on manufacturing and mining and is basically being kept afloat by Eastman. The Johnson City MSA, however, was never as manufacturing-dependent and is reaping the benefits of that now. The decline of mining and manufacturing will continue to hurt Kingsport and Bristol although as long as Eastman remains successful and Bristol continues to develop its tourist scene, I think these area will be ok. Johnson City stands to prosper with the growing medical industry and the potential for significant research dollars to come into the medical school. Johnson City is in the best position to be the location of any higher paying jobs that come to the region.
Pretty much agree completely. I think southwest VA can't support the people it already has and many of those people will need to leave to have a viable existence. I think some of the towns will remain in some respect, others will pretty much wither up and die, but the fat lady has basically sung on the area.
Johnson City seems to be doing better, no doubt, but I don't think Bristol is going to be any sort of tourism mecca. Folks in Kingsport who are affiliated with Eastman seem to be doing fine, but the rest of the folks are struggling.
I do think wind and solar have potential, however the job numbers aren't going to be close to what you have with coal. Adventure tourism is another possibility but that has already been done in SE Kentucky and there is only so much of a market. That whole region was born and prospered due to coal and will die because of coal. The population has been in decline for years and will continue into the future. I don't think these towns will every completely die but will become sleepy exurbs relying 100% on the Tri-Cities for basic needs.
Some interesting thoughts. Many people prefer to bash local politicians for not diversifying the local economy more, but there's really only so much politicians can do and the end of coal was hastened as much, if not more, by government regulations (for better or worse) than competition from other energy sources. As bad as coal could be for the environment, it's an impossible puzzle to figure out what other way an uneducated, generational poverty-stricken area could support itself without coal. And most people bashing the politicians don't seem to have any viable ideas of their own. Wind and solar might have some limited potential but would not have nearly the same impact as mines. Marijuana crops could literally save the region as well, but getting such crops legal in TN or VA would be a tough sell at this time.
I would disagree that the economy in Johnson City would be insulated from the deteriorating coal market. The medical industry will suffer as the population declines when people leave, not immediately as senior citizens won't be going anywhere, but it will have an impact in 15-20 years as Johnson City receives transfers from all MSHA hospitals and if Dickenson County General loses money, then MSHA loses money. JC is also tremendously helped by the VA hospital which is likely to experience lower patient populations as the Vietnam generation approaches an older age. The medical school also has a stated mission of community service and the research dollars flowing in are minimal. They would have to attract the faculty with research experience first. The downstream effect of a smaller economy in Kingsport and Bristol is also likely to deter development in Gray, and many companies might be willing to invest in 3 medium-market cities but would have no interest in sending a truck to supply a store only in Johnson City. BWW is the latest example, once they finally came to JC the Kingsport store was also being built. I just see the whole Tri-Cities area rising or sinking in the same boat.
Agreed coal's demise was hastened, but those areas have been trending downward for decades. The leadership has had years and years to mull this over - it wasn't sprung on them at the last minute.
I also agree it's a chicken and egg deal with education and jobs. Modern employers will not want to locate to an area where a high proportion of the residents are indigent, uneducated, and have substance abuse problems. Education hasn't been a priority, and even if it was, where would those folks work?
Likewise, locals who want to do better than the local standards generally just leave - they don't stick around to improve the area. What you end up left with are older people who can't/won't leave, and the younger people who are essentially an underclass.
I wouldn't say JC is completely independent of the problems in Kingsport/Bristol, but it's by far a better place to live and a clear step above the other two in terms of amenities.
Likewise, locals who want to do better than the local standards generally just leave - they don't stick around to improve the area. What you end up left with are older people who can't/won't leave, and the younger people who are essentially an underclass.
While I'm mostly referring to JC, what I find so ironic is the people who seem to be investing the most into improving the area are from somewhere else. Many of the people working in local development and with local non-profits are originally from outside the region (myself included). I think you are starting to see young people having a greater desire to stick around, though, as the overall economy improves.
Quote:
I wouldn't say JC is completely independent of the problems in Kingsport/Bristol, but it's by far a better place to live and a clear step above the other two in terms of amenities.
I don't think JC is as reliant on Kingsport/Bristol as it once was. Honestly Eastman is probably one of the only large-scale employers that draws commuters out of Johnson City. The Nascar races don't draw the people they used to and there really isn't much outside the JC MSA that affects Johnson City's economy in a significant way. The airport is the only real regional entity that all players have a stake in.
The fact that the Tri-Cities was split into two MSA's goes to show the economic separation that exists. I've always found it striking that ETSU, a major player in JC's economy and Eastman, the economy in Kingsport, basically have nothing to do with each other. Eastman recently announced a partnership with UT. There are continued calls for more regional cooperation and economic development but who would that really benefit? Johnson City is doing quite well on its own and with Sullivan County treading water, does JC want to take on the added weight and risk sinking the ship?
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
