What Does the Long-Term Future Hold for the Region? (Johnson City: lofts, consignment)

[Rangerred]

It seems as if the Tri-Cities region is in the midst of a significant period of change. The region's economic backbone, manufacturing, has been on the decline for some time and the coal industry is in a death spiral. Growth is occurring in the service and medical sectors but but this has not been a substantial benefit to the region. What needs to happen to mitigate the impact of this economic transition?

The region's population continues to increase albeit at a painfully slow pace. The Kingsport-Bristol MSA is nearly flat with most growth occurring in the Johnson City MSA which is expected to overtake Kingsport-Bristol within the next 20 years. Will this trend continue and if so, does it somewhat dilute the idea that region-wide cooperation is necessary for economic success?

My thoughts are thoughts are there will be continues slow, steady growth in the region with the majority of it concentrated within the city limits of Johnson City. The rural population will decrease, as is the trend nationally, and cities will be forced to develop and/or re-purpose land within their existing boundaries due to the end of annexation by ordinance. I think it is highly unlikely Bristol, Johnson City, and Kingsport will ever grow together to form a single metropolis as some once predicted.

I think Johnson City will continue as the economic and cultural hub of the region and in 20-30 years time, will be the uncontested primary city of Northeast TN/Southwest VA with Kingsport and Bristol playing supporting roles. Johnson City has quality of life amenities and intangible assets important to many companies and entrepreneurs and is well-positioned for growth. The same really can't be said for much of the region. Just my opinion.

[jchometeam]

Just a few things:

Coal is not going to be a big industry long-term. That fact has already hurt many communities, including Unicoi County with the loss of the railroad jobs. The sooner that any particular community can figure this out and become less reliant on coal jobs the better. The same is largely true with manufacturing. Manufacturing is going to continue a steady decline in this country as long as 1) the citizens (like myself) would rather buy cheap than buy something made in the U.S. 2) we have minimum wage and tax laws which make other countries more attractive for labor.

I absolutely believe that the trend of slow and steady population increases will continue with the majority of this growth occurring in Johnson City. I also believe that you are correct that the Tri-Cities will never become a single metropolis. These are all reasons why I love living in this area. I don't want large, fast increases in population. The country has a whole has been crippled by the effects of large population increases which outpace job growth. Why in the world would we want that here?

The Tri-Cities are three independent cities clustered around some great rural areas. Each city has all of the retail and food necessities that anyone would want, and there is very little need to drive to the other cities on a regular basis. Anyone can choose which of the cities they like best, or whether they want to live in the city or a more rural setting between the cities. This is what makes the region great, and I hope it never changes.

[Serious Conversation]

Agree with both of you.

Regardless of your politics, the easy to get coal is long gone. The coal that remains is increasingly difficult to get to, more expensive to get, whatever. What coal mining remains is increasingly mechanized (read: less workers) and requires more sophisticated workers to repair, operate, etc., the higher tech equipment and systems used in the industry. Coal isn't going to be an employment driver in the area in the sense that it was, nor does southwest VA in particular have the vocational/engineering infrastructure to train up the few next generation workers needed in the industry. Coal is a shell of what it was, and southwest VA politicians and residents are still living in yesteryear trying to bring back a nonviable industry. To some extent, Rick Boucher foresaw this and did a lot of good in the region. Morgan Griffith has been all but invisible. FWIW, I'm a Republican.

Manufacturing is actually pretty strong in the US, but what we're producing are mostly higher-level, more sophisticated goods. Many of these goods go overseas. Think aircraft parts, medical equipment, and stuff not seen by the general consumer. Will manufacturing be what it ever was at its peak in the region? Probably not. Like I said, we're producing more sophisticated goods, which requires a lot of engineering talent, which we don't have an engineering school in the area nor a critical mass of talent. Also, the big manufacturing you see in the South (Nissan in Smyrna, Toyota in Georgetown KY) are generally on larger parcels of flat land than what you'd find around the Tri-Cities. We could continue to get lower value added, light manufacturing, but I don't see the Tri-Cities getting a big Ford plant or something.

One thing that always surprises me is the lack of thoughtful discussion on the local media's websites, Facebook pages, etc. Important economic or business news is often not featured - when it is, it gets few if any comments. What comments are made are often of the "bring back manufacturing" type. While I get people's frustrations and Facebook isn't really conducive to longer discussions, there is little visible in the way of thinking outside the box. Continuing down paths that haven't worked very well lately isn't likely going to work out in the near future. I think the handful of regular contributors on this board have more sense than local government leadership, and far more than the local yokel on the street.

I was back in town two weeks ago for four days and I did some signs of positive development. There were a couple of new or growing businesses in downtown Kingsport. I saw a new laundromat and consignment shop. Mac's Medicine's new building is finished. Some of the old run-down buildings near where the old Evermore comics was have been torn doubt. Sleepy Owl is a much needed place to socialize. Kingsport was showing incremental progress.

Johnson City showed significant progress. There was far more foot traffic downtown on a Sunday afternoon than I'd seen. Lots of people at Tupelo Honey, YeeHaw, etc. Retail and dining is still the strongest in Johnson City. A wider variety of housing, both the traditional SFH, as well as some more urban lofts, are coming online. It's not booming, but the progress is notable.

The amenities change is noticeable. These QoL improvements may tilt prospective candidates to local companies to consider the area more. Natives are also more likely to stay if the QoL is high, and jobs are available. Having more amenities creates not only the jobs at those places themselves, but will also aid in firms potentially relocating there. No one wants to locate in an area where there is little to do.

IMO, the biggest demographic problem is that the area is not retaining native young adults, at least the more productive ones. I'm 30 so I've been out of the local schools awhile, but most of my cohort (including many that went to ETSU, not in medical/education, and wanted to stay local) have since moved on. Some would have anyway, but I've seen similar complaints on Facebook from the local public.