[olecapt]

As of mid August inventory remains high. Sales remain low. Prices are up slightly from last month. Vacant are at 36%. All are Single Family Resale Numbers. It continues

[coolricks]

With the current trend, think the rates will go down? stay as is? or go up?

[TerpsandHorns]

SHEP

Switching gears a bit...you pointed out a healthy Texas as an alternative..

On a side note, this idea of Texas doing just fine is a bit misleading in your post. I have a personal stake in texas. I love the state, but I wan't to point out a few nuggets before you think moving to the Lone Star will bail you out.

1) Don't get too caught up in those realtor.com or builder website pricing. If you want a big new home in Texas, revise your research by at least 75K. Think in the mid to high 200s for big homes/tiny lots middle class areas not the 100s people think....desirable nice areas of texas are even higher....The prices are cheaper than Vegas but not as great as you think...

2) Insanity level Property Taxes in Texas run from lows at about 2.50% to 4.5%...They are assessed at 100% fair market value. A typical las vegas 400K home might run you 3000/year while that 275K home in texas will set you back 9625/year....that is a $552 per month diffrence...THAT IS EQUIVALENT TO AN EXTRA $88,000 OF BUYING PRICE POWER IN LAS VEGAS!!!

3) Texas has draconian cash out refinance laws. 20% of the house value is protected permanent...You can never get that cash out until you sell...If you plunk down money in Texas, 20% will be trapped until you sell.

4) Only Florida has higher home owner insurance rates. You will get another sticker shock at the monthly outflow to insurance..

5) Texas is a neutral market in essence, so do'nt expect lots of seller incentives from private parties.


So, in esence if you are thinking to bail on Las Vegas as a place to live or invest in Texas....be very careful...

The homes in Texas stay low priced and move slowly for a reason. There are really no true bargain untapped areas left in the country.

If you factor in the property tax/insurance burden, the tough refinance laws, and the cost to relocate...well.it comes out to about the same cost nevada and texas..

And if you ever did get a doubling of value in Texas prices, well the property taxes would make it a completely unaffordable monthly payment. The are no assesment lags in Texas.

........

But Hook Em Horns and move to the Lone Star anyway. You might not get the big "cost of living" savings you think...but...you will find a little piece of paradise in the Republic.

[SHEPNYC]

Originally Posted by TerpsandHorns

SHEP

Switching gears a bit...you pointed out a healthy Texas as an alternative..

On a side note, this idea of Texas doing just fine is a bit misleading in your post. I have a personal stake in texas. I love the state, but I wan't to point out a few nuggets before you think moving to the Lone Star will bail you out.

1) Don't get too caught up in those realtor.com or builder website pricing. If you want a big new home in Texas, revise your research by at least 75K. Think in the mid to high 200s for big homes/tiny lots middle class areas not the 100s people think....desirable nice areas of texas are even higher....The prices are cheaper than Vegas but not as great as you think...

2) Insanity level Property Taxes in Texas run from lows at about 2.50% to 4.5%...They are assessed at 100% fair market value. A typical las vegas 400K home might run you 3000/year while that 275K home in texas will set you back 9625/year....that is a $552 per month diffrence...THAT IS EQUIVALENT TO AN EXTRA $88,000 OF BUYING PRICE POWER IN LAS VEGAS!!!

3) Texas has draconian cash out refinance laws. 20% of the house value is protected permanent...You can never get that cash out until you sell...If you plunk down money in Texas, 20% will be trapped until you sell.

4) Only Florida has higher home owner insurance rates. You will get another sticker shock at the monthly outflow to insurance..

5) Texas is a neutral market in essence, so do'nt expect lots of seller incentives from private parties.


So, in esence if you are thinking to bail on Las Vegas as a place to live or invest in Texas....be very careful...

The homes in Texas stay low priced and move slowly for a reason. There are really no true bargain untapped areas left in the country.

If you factor in the property tax/insurance burden, the tough refinance laws, and the cost to relocate...well.it comes out to about the same cost nevada and texas..

And if you ever did get a doubling of value in Texas prices, well the property taxes would make it a completely unaffordable monthly payment. The are no assesment lags in Texas.

........

But Hook Em Horns and move to the Lone Star anyway. You might not get the big "cost of living" savings you think...but...you will find a little piece of paradise in the Republic.

Note the NYC in the name.
Currently in Manhattan and considering an investment in Las Vegas.
Prices have held up well here.
I'm not familar with the Texas market but it was quoted as part of the article.

[TerpsandHorns]

SHEPNYC

If you are considering an investment in Las Vegas, and the 14 pages of negative threads havent scared you off??

Well let me reiterate

Long Term Las Vegas Investment properties are probably sound due to current land supplies almost maxed out. The Las Vegas area is surrounded by mountains and federal land...so there actually will be a shortage in the wide open desert...

Short Term Las Vegas investing is a horrible idea. The price bottoms havent been reached yet. The rents to price ratio is not very good in Las Vegas relative to other buying areas. You aren't going to be able to get much appreciation anytime soon, and the rents wont cover your note.

(Although, I do apologize to suffering Vegas homeowners for further hurting the market perception with such negativity.)

I reccomend that if you must buy investment properties in such a downward market, you look to the less known southeastern cities (especially Carolina cities that get a lot of "NY big incomes rainshadow effect") They have similar rents to las vegas at about 1/2 -- 2/3 the purchase price. People just make more income on the East Coast and can handle rent surges.

[SHEPNYC]

Originally Posted by TerpsandHorns

SHEPNYC

If you are considering an investment in Las Vegas, and the 14 pages of negative threads havent scared you off??

Well let me reiterate

Long Term Las Vegas Investment properties are probably sound due to current land supplies almost maxed out. The Las Vegas area is surrounded by mountains and federal land...so there actually will be a shortage in the wide open desert...

Short Term Las Vegas investing is a horrible idea. The price bottoms havent been reached yet. The rents to price ratio is not very good in Las Vegas relative to other buying areas. You aren't going to be able to get much appreciation anytime soon, and the rents wont cover your note.

(Although, I do apologize to suffering Vegas homeowners for further hurting the market perception with such negativity.)

I reccomend that if you must buy investment properties in such a downward market, you look to the less known southeastern cities (especially Carolina cities that get a lot of "NY big incomes rainshadow effect") They have similar rents to las vegas at about 1/2 -- 2/3 the purchase price. People just make more income on the East Coast and can handle rent surges.

I'm not in any rush. I expect prices will bottom out over the next 18 to 24 months and then no big run-up for a couple of years. I'll keep an eye on things and pounce when it looks like the right time.

[sheriff]

Originally Posted by TerpsandHorns

SHEPNYC

If you are considering an investment in Las Vegas, and the 14 pages of negative threads havent scared you off??

Well let me reiterate

Long Term Las Vegas Investment properties are probably sound due to current land supplies almost maxed out. The Las Vegas area is surrounded by mountains and federal land...so there actually will be a shortage in the wide open desert...

Short Term Las Vegas investing is a horrible idea. The price bottoms havent been reached yet. The rents to price ratio is not very good in Las Vegas relative to other buying areas. You aren't going to be able to get much appreciation anytime soon, and the rents wont cover your note.

(Although, I do apologize to suffering Vegas homeowners for further hurting the market perception with such negativity.)

I reccomend that if you must buy investment properties in such a downward market, you look to the less known southeastern cities (especially Carolina cities that get a lot of "NY big incomes rainshadow effect") They have similar rents to las vegas at about 1/2 -- 2/3 the purchase price. People just make more income on the East Coast and can handle rent surges.

Land maxed-out. When it comes to money, the dims leader "cleanface" has his hand wide open for all offers.

[TerpsandHorns]

I am stunned today. Now, I am truly worried. I never though today's type of new could ever happen

I never really bought into all that possibility of a 50% reduction in prices armageddon ideology...but...

It might take a 50% plunge in home values to save the mortgage business.

Greenpoint Mortgage went belly up today. They are a 15 billion dollar "A" paper lending institution that handles a significant chunk of mortgage business. They have been there for years as a "brick and mortar" style institution.

This is no longer a subprime issue. They were entirely focused on borrowers with good credit and could not survive this market.

Suntrust Bank is laying off 2000 people and thinking of bailing on mortgages altogether. Even my Bank of America Wholesale Account Executive is feeling the axeman heat. These 100 year old banks certainly are not subprime speculators.

First Surprime, then Alt-A, then Jumbo loans, and now traditional A paper lenders are collapsing.

Unless, the Fed and fannie radically changes the criteria for gov't loans...this is going to be bad..real real bad....No one will buy a single mortgage unless it is government insured before this is all done.

Home Prices will have to plummet as no one can qualify for loans based on true incomes anymore.

[ParkTwain]

This is what Wall Street and the mortgage origination business has done to itself. What kinds of additional regulation do you believe are needed?

BTW, Greenpoint is part of the Capital One corporation, which is one of the worst offending credit card companies. They use obnoxious market techniques and are very had at applying nuisance charges to consumer credit card accounts. I would presume from the company's practices that I have seen (predatory lending, misleading credit card terms, etc.) that the quality of the company's management is suspect.

[dude66]

U.S. Foreclosures Rise Sharply in July

mod cut: text removed

Whole article here:

U.S. Foreclosures Rise Sharply in July: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance (broken link)