[Reubliewillis]

I just moved to Vegas about 3 months ago. I used a real estate agent to find my apartment. Now she is out landlord. Which is great and our apartment is great but now that my husband and I have landed decent jobs we are curious about ending our lease early, if we can and buying a house. Our credit is perfect and the prices are low so I sent my landlord and email asking her about it and told her we would use her as our agent too if she could get us out of our lease early. She responded saying we should buy next year, I told her we would probably want to start looking in october. She said inventory is low right now and it would go up next year. What's up with that? She didn't even review our lease and give a definite answer either and it took her 3 days to respond. What do you all know about the real estate market in las Vegas? We have been approved in two other cities so I know we're good on the financing side of things.

[Reubliewillis]

Oh, and I guess my other question is: why would the inventory jump up in 2013? Is there a new law that goes into effect or something? Thanks.

[latin_racer]

//www.city-data.com/forum/las-v...arket-555.html

[gulfer]

Nobody knows what will happen next year. If they say they do, they are lying.

[eventusstultorummagister]

Originally Posted by Reubliewillis

She said inventory is low right now and it would go up next year. What's up with that?

This is a complex issue...

The Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007 will expire on 12/31/2012, unless an extension is approved, after that date, debt forgiven on a primary residence would be subject to ordinary income taxation.

As this deadline nears, this fact features prominently in the bank’s negotiating strategies. Their thinking is something along these lines... “So, Joe Blow, you have a $100,000 net loss that will become ordinary income in 5 months; we will just move a bit slower and see if we can extract more blood”.

After the deadline expires there will be MASSIVE tax consequences. In my opinion, the ship has sailed and the time to short sell your home has passed (unless you can successfully negotiate a contract in the next few months).

The question remains as to how this will impact future inventory.

[Coco6163]

While predicting any real estate market a year in advance is dubious, that is especially true for a market like Las Vegas. Inventory levels will likely depend on the kind of housing you seek. To answer your question, however, the law recently changed to make foreclosing on homes much harder for the banks. Currently, the number of foreclosed upon homes for sale is much lower than a year ago, and prices seem to be rising as a result. But the banks have more inventory to sell and more homes to foreclose upon. As the banks catch up to the law, some believe the banks will increase the inventory available for sale. Whether that will happen, however, is far from certain.

[tbill618]

AB 284 is the law which makes it more difficult for banks to foreclose. It was enacted in October of 2011. Foreclosures feel a great deal after that but have picked up again, but not near previous levels.
I found this video on Youtube of Bryan Lebo explaining AB 284 and it's effects. To his credit he was all over this issue even before the law went into effect and correctly predicted the constriction in inventory.

It didn't hurt that interest rates fell a great deal over the past year. Artificially restricting supply and lowering interest rates will steal demand from the future and that is what we are seeing now. It is like cash for clunkers. After the special incentives are over demand will slack off. In this way I disagree with Lebo. There is not enough demand because of the weakening economy to keep prices increasing. Also, a president Romney is likely to push to clear the market of inventory because that is the only way for the economy to recover. Today's flippers are going to get burned.

[lvoc]

I have problems with all the "blame it on AB284" guys. All sounds plausible...but there is Phoenix. How can Phoenix be way ahead without AB284? I would agree that the Phoenix economy is somewhat better...but their actual GMP is worse than Las Vegas. They had a much bigger base to keep the loss of the housing industry under better control but they lost in that sector about as badly. There certainly is no indication that Phoenix has hit some new growth phase to drive up the cost of housing. So how come?

One would have thought that the potential ending of the forgiveness of imputed profits would have led to a huge increase in shorts and REOs as people unloaded before the law reverts back. Sure does not look that way. It is marginal as to whether you could get out this year at the moment and will be impossible in a mere 90 days. So we should be in the middle of an inventory bubble...but it sure does not look that way.

I think I am with the AG. Nobody has the faintest idea of what is actually happening. It does appear that we have a strong price increase under way and nothing in the way to change it. Any guarantees? Certainly not. It may all go to hell next month.. But at this point I would advise clients that the likelihood is for a much more expensive product by spring.

I would also speculate that perhaps the market has decided to close the gap between replacement cost and market value. It really is unnatural for things to sell well below their replacement costs. As the big run up appears to be primarily here and in Phoenix perhaps that is what is going on.

Who knows though. Going to be an interesting few months.

[eventusstultorummagister]

The current low inventory in Las Vegas is completely artificial.

Normally, home builders are quick to respond to market trends but housing starts are still languishing at record low levels. Why? Because the current shortage of inventory is the direct result of banks actively stifling true market forces by severely restricting inventory.

The price increases you are witnessing are heavily dependent on low interest rates and manipulated inventory, what happens if/when that changes? What's down the road?? Will the Fed continue to buy trillions of dollars in Mortgage Backed Securities???

Buying a home right now is not a simple decision.

[airics]

New homes are being built like crazy at aliante (elkhorn)