[AlphaBeta]

Originally Posted by eventusstultorummagister

Unemployment is unchanged.
Wages are unchanged.
The lending climate is unchanged.
The cost of living is up.
Tax-ageddon is around the corner...

Nevada unemployment falls to lowest level in 3 years - Friday, May 18, 2012 | 9:25 a.m. - Las Vegas Sun

CARSON CITY — The unemployment rate in the Las Vegas area fell to 11.6 percent in April, the lowest point in three years, as job growth picked up in the state and Southern Nevada.

[eventusstultorummagister]

Originally Posted by AlphaBeta

Nevada unemployment falls to lowest level in 3 years - Friday, May 18, 2012 | 9:25 a.m. - Las Vegas Sun

CARSON CITY — The unemployment rate in the Las Vegas area fell to 11.6 percent in April, the lowest point in three years, as job growth picked up in the state and Southern Nevada.

"It is partially due to people falling out of the work force," said May Worthey, spokesperson for DETR. "In surveys, when we ask people if they are looking for work, there are people who are discouraged and simply say, 'no, we're not looking for work.'"


I love the spin, makes me feel all tingly.

how's that Patsy Cline tune go again? Heartaches... heartaches...

[Swigchow]

Yes, the economy and real estate seems to be gaining traction with continued slow improvement. This is evident not only in announced statistics but also on the ground. In Seattle, real estate is actually becoming increasingly difficult to find affordable housing. Bidding wars are back. I am able to meet many small business owners also confirming the uptick. I was just discussing with a person who owns a scaffolding business. At the peak his business employed 12 people, just a year ago, it was down to one person other than himself and he feared going under, now he is back up to 8 employees. Another person who owns a truck repair business just this year is so stressed out that he cannot find enough people to work. He had 11 workers three years ago, down to 3 last year, now up to 15 and wants to add more. These are small vignettes but illustrative that times have changed, there is improvement. If locales like Washington State continue to improve then that bodes well for Las Vegas.

[LV2ndHome]

I'm not sure I would count on the conditions in Seattle/Washington State to be much of an indicator for LV. That area has one of the highest literacy rates in the US, the diversified likes of aerospace industry, Microsoft, Amazon, etc. Affordable housing has been very limited for most of recent history, and the over all cost living there has been very high compared to most of the rest of the US. In other words, it has been an area in high demand for most of the last several years, and I'd think in a much more favorable position for recovery than LV.

I hope things are getting or will soon get better, but I'm cautiously optimistic. While the good news is encouraging, most of it can be questioned or at least discounted to some degree. Yes available inventory in LV is down, prices have bumped a bit, there are some bidding wars, etc. But is this a true indication of recovery, or a short term artificially induced rally from the new law making it harder for banks to foreclose? Will the market continue to get better or at least hold it's own when the shadow inventory of upcoming foreclosures hits the market? I don't know.

Likewise there are reports of unemployment numbers being down. But there are also reports of it being essentially "cooking the books" by no longer counting people as unemployed that still unemployed but have given up and quit looking. The last jobs report I saw was disappointing in that it didn't indicate many new jobs have been created.

And so on.

Admittedly I'm only a "recreational" armchair analyst and don't follow various market reports/conditions very closely, but this is my general perception. Basically I'm not all gloom and doom like some still are, but I haven't put on my rose colored glasses either.

[las vegas drunk]

Originally Posted by AlphaBeta

Nevada unemployment falls to lowest level in 3 years - Friday, May 18, 2012 | 9:25 a.m. - Las Vegas Sun

CARSON CITY — The unemployment rate in the Las Vegas area fell to 11.6 percent in April, the lowest point in three years, as job growth picked up in the state and Southern Nevada.

I hope you are not posting this as good news, right?

"At the beginning of the recession, 67.8 percent of Nevada’s population was in the labor force, either employed or unemployed. It is now 64.9 percent. Anderson said this suggests workers are dropping out of the labor force and are not counted among the unemployed."

[AlphaBeta]

Originally Posted by eventusstultorummagister

"It is partially due to people falling out of the work force," said May Worthey, spokesperson for DETR. "In surveys, when we ask people if they are looking for work, there are people who are discouraged and simply say, 'no, we're not looking for work.'"


I love the spin, makes me feel all tingly.

how's that Patsy Cline tune go again? Heartaches... heartaches...

Originally Posted by las vegas drunk

I hope you are not posting this as good news, right?

"At the beginning of the recession, 67.8 percent of Nevada’s population was in the labor force, either employed or unemployed. It is now 64.9 percent. Anderson said this suggests workers are dropping out of the labor force and are not counted among the unemployed."

OK, if you all want to pick and choose what you read in the article to put a negative spin on unemployment/job growth, then so be it. However, if you want to keep an open mind, there is this:

The state Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation reported there were 811,800 people employed last month, 4,000 more than on the job in March in Clark County.

Gov. Brian Sandoval said the state “has recorded year-over-year private sector job gains every month since early 2011, a clear sign that we are slowly but steadily working our way toward a stronger economy.”
Construction employment in the Las Vegas area increased to 35,000 in April, up 200 jobs from March, officials said. The biggest gain was recorded in the utilities, transportation and trade sector, which rose to 151,100 people employed, a gain of 2,500 jobs.

[eventusstultorummagister]

Originally Posted by AlphaBeta

OK, if you all want to pick and choose what you read in the article to put a negative spin on unemployment/job growth, then so be it. However, if you want to keep an open mind, there is this:

The state Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation reported there were 811,800 people employed last month, 4,000 more than on the job in March in Clark County.

Gov. Brian Sandoval said the state “has recorded year-over-year private sector job gains every month since early 2011, a clear sign that we are slowly but steadily working our way toward a stronger economy.”
Construction employment in the Las Vegas area increased to 35,000 in April, up 200 jobs from March, officials said. The biggest gain was recorded in the utilities, transportation and trade sector, which rose to 151,100 people employed, a gain of 2,500 jobs.

"There are some positives, but hard times are still prevailing."

"...economists aren't rejoicing at the drop. That's because the falloff came mostly from a shrinking labor force rather than job growth"

"People who aren't actively looking for work aren't counted as unemployed, and that's why jobless rates can fall when the labor pool shrinks."

"Bill Anderson, chief economist for the employment department, traced the smaller labor pool to two forces: A structural or demographic component that includes retiring baby boomers, and a cyclical side related to discouraged workers who stop their job search."

"Plus, it's common to see people quit the workforce as unemployment benefits run out."

"Losses in the public sector, which has shed 6,400 positions since January 2011, offset some of those improvements."

"Other losers included construction, which shed 900 jobs and hit a post-boom low in April."

"Professional and business services such as law firms and architecture studios slashed 2,000 jobs. Leisure and hospitality cut 1,400 jobs in April..."


http://www.lvrj.com/business/nevada-...152026665.html

[LV2ndHome]

Originally Posted by AlphaBeta

OK, if you all want to pick and choose what you read in the article to put a negative spin on unemployment/job growth, then so be it. However, if you want to keep an open mind, there is this:

The state Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation reported there were 811,800 people employed last month, 4,000 more than on the job in March in Clark County.

Gov. Brian Sandoval said the state “has recorded year-over-year private sector job gains every month since early 2011, a clear sign that we are slowly but steadily working our way toward a stronger economy.”
Construction employment in the Las Vegas area increased to 35,000 in April, up 200 jobs from March, officials said. The biggest gain was recorded in the utilities, transportation and trade sector, which rose to 151,100 people employed, a gain of 2,500 jobs.

I would argue you are trying to "pick and choose what you read in the article to put a [positive] spin on unemployment/job growth" just as much as those that are negative are doing the opposite, and thus you are not keeping an open mind any more than the gloom and doom folks. Just like the above numbers... pick the sector with the biggest gain and ignore sectors that did poorly or even lost jobs. Construction adding a whopping 200 jobs, and that during a time of year that I'd expect a seasonal increase. These do not convince me the recession is over.

Look at the gubner's comments you highlighted and read it again closely at what he says and avoids saying. Keep in mind that a gubner is the utmost spin cheerleader. He says we have gained jobs every month but declines to give any indication of the amount of the gain, which indicate they are minimal. He admits we are advancing slowly. We are working towards a "stronger" (not a "strong") economy. In other words, this is the type of thing you say when on a scale of 1-10 you are at 1 and struggling to get to 2.

I hope and really want to believe the bottom is in and we are starting a legitimate, prolonged recovery. But I also want to keep an open mind, be realistic, and recognize there are a lot positive as well as negative reports. There is enough positive reports that I don't agree with the gloom and doomers, and likewise there is still enough negative news that I don't completely side with those wearing rose colored glasses either.

I believe there has been recent slight improvement. But are we truly starting recovery or are we just in the middle of a dead cat bounce? I don't know and offer no opinion.

[StaggerLee22]

Well I'm off to the Aliante area to see a few houses.
Wish me luck.

[eventusstultorummagister]

Stephen Brown, professor of economics and director of UNLV's Center for Business & Economic Research, said Wednesday:

"Brown told the 200 in attendance that while Southern Nevada has the potential of having a record year for visitor volume in 2012, the 11.6 percent jobless rate and a construction industry that cratered to a level deeper than anyone had envisioned is keeping the region from firing on all cylinders."

"He also said the state having the nation’s highest percentage of underwater homes and near-negative equity mortgages stands in the way of significant economic improvement."

Economy starting to see recovery, albeit a slow one - Thursday, May 31, 2012 | 2 a.m. - Las Vegas Sun

"The Las Vegas unemployment rate stands at 11.6 percent, but Brown said it’s considerably higher — possibly as high as 23 percent — because so many people have quit looking for work, a phenomenon that is occurring nationwide."

http://www.lvrj.com/business/las-veg...155894065.html

"While the visitor count is up, gambling revenue is down significantly from five years ago"