[Katie the heartbreaker]

Originally Posted by RationalExpectations

Actually, I wasn't. I was referring to the guy in the video.
Forecasting is quite difficult -- especially about the future. Heck, we have a hard enough time figuring out the relationship among events in the past.
At the end of the day, none of these leading & award-winning economists agree with the person in the video.

Your post was huge so I condensed it. I do agree that forecasting is difficult. The guy in the video would be a contrarian, so no mainstream economist would ever agree with him. I have been listening to him for years, and he does have a great track record. Not perfect, but he does get more right than wrong.

Originally Posted by tijlover

I don't ascribe to Psychic's, but a friend of mine does, and her Psychic, with a very high rate of predictions, predicted, a year ago, a pandemic would quickly appear, and? It would disappear just as quickly.
If that's any consolation!

Hopefully she is right!

Originally Posted by RationalExpectations

I do not believe your premise. My personal conversations both with Hank Paulson and Timothy Geithner are convincing to me. The seeds of the Great Recession date back to the first Clinton Administration.

I have actually posted that myself in another thread and fully agree. The seeds of this coming crisis are again going to be because of the Clinton Administration, among other things.

Originally Posted by RationalExpectations

This stuff is so complicated, I don't see how anyone alive can be 100% certain.

That comes down to being rational or not. I will be the first to say I am not rational and have a different way of thinking than "normal" people. I am 100% certain because I feel it. I base a lot of my conclusions on predictive programming. The Simpsons predicted that Trump would become president and destroy the economy. When I watch movies that are based in the future, the United States is almost always depicted as a failed country. Elysium would be a great example of that.

[Cold Warrior]

I will be the first to say I am not rational

Let me be the first to agree.

[atler8]

Originally Posted by Freedom4Nevada

Your assertions are false.

And you back your assertions with...?

[BBMW]

I would think that anyone who could avoid trying to sell now is desperately trying to do so. Short of the end of 2008, this is probably the worst possible time to try to sell.

Originally Posted by lvmensch

Nothing significant so far. Some minor price weakening but nothing significant.

This scenario would be expected to lead to some weakness and it may come. But nothing yet.

[eventusstultorummagister]

Originally Posted by lvmensch

I think you are blowing an economic hiccup into a myocardial infarction.

Captain,

I'm afraid this time the piper is calling...


Vegas is donezo.

[lvmensch]

Originally Posted by eventusstultorummagister

Captain,

I'm afraid this time the piper is calling...


Vegas is donezo.

Not at this point for RE. No signs of a significant break yet. Should have a better view by months end.

[Willy702]

Originally Posted by BBMW

I would think that anyone who could avoid trying to sell now is desperately trying to do so. Short of the end of 2008, this is probably the worst possible time to try to sell.

I know two people who just went into contract on properties. They are somewhat experienced investors who asked for slightly bigger concessions than normal and got traded back on them. So in the end they said they got maybe 1-2% in value out of the transaction, but won't change the transacted sale price. If you can get a loan, and let's see what underwriters ask for in this time of craziness, its still a decent time to buy or sell. The sellers gave up a little more, but made it clear they weren't just going to have terms handed to them. Its nowhere near what the OP seems to imply that sellers will just take anything, including 20% less. If that's all you are offering there will be no deal.

Certainly isn't without its risk, but for a market like Las Vegas it will come down to will the impact lead to longer term job losses and/or net migration out of the area? If you think it will then maybe you wait a bit to see if it materializes. On the bull case, one of the buyers told me he's expecting the frenzy and impacts to pass just around the time housing really heats up so any pent up demand is going to hit the market at once. I'd guess it will be somewhere in the middle, some buyers will come back ready to buy, especially those from out of state, but others will await to see if there is any real damage from a recession before committing to a purchase.

[longviewJoe]

Originally Posted by tijlover

I don't ascribe to Psychic's, but a friend of mine does, and her Psychic, with a very high rate of predictions, predicted, a year ago, a pandemic would quickly appear, and? It would disappear just as quickly.

If that's any consolation!

Sounds like your friend reads Sylvia Browne who forecast in it in her 2008 book:

"In around 2020 a severe pneumonia-like illness will spread throughout the globe, attacking the lungs and the bronchial tubes and resisting all known treatments. Almost more baffling than the illness itself will be the fact that it will suddenly vanish as quickly as it arrived, attack again ten years later, and then disappear completely."

Read more at snopes - believe it or not....

Snopes Link

[CD2017]

Originally Posted by lvmensch

Not at this point for RE. No signs of a significant break yet. Should have a better view by months end.

Well, I mean it's akin to the number of CV19 cases in the state. The data is behind, so where you think you're at, you're not.

Obviously RE market is well behind what we think it is, just like the CV19 cases. Just because the official data isn't there, doesn't make it untrue.

Only time will tell how significant this event is.

[curiousgeorge5]

Historically a change in the economic paradigm has resulted in a death toll that is rarely highlighted by mainstream historians. When the transition from rural areas to large cities happened in Europe many people unable to accept the new paradigm killed themselves. They killed themselves by a psychological factor.

I'm not sure if this means people litterally commited suicide or they died in terms of their spirit being shot and becomming depressed, alcoholics, etc. Anyone?