Will suburban development continue in LV? (Philadelphia, Allentown: apartments, crime, townhouses)

[gottaq]

Will suburban development and sprawl continue in the lehigh valley? or will most of the growth go back to the urban areas? which townships in particular do you think will keep growing with sprawl?

[toobusytoday]

Sprawl is a dirty word in my book. I hope it just stays over in Lower Macungie... Planned growth with open spaces for parks is what most people want AFAIK. Most of the towns surrounding the city's in our area have been around for hundreds of years, they're not especially suburban sprawl.

[JohnZ963]

I think most of the townships are mostly built-out due to zoning restrictions and farmland preservation, except for a few remaining open tracts in Lower/Upper Macungie, Bethlehem Township, etc. I can't see places like Moore Township or Weisenberg Township ever being completely covered with houses. I don't think we will ever see the residential growth of the late 1990s through mid 2000s in the townships again.

[PacoMartin]

Originally Posted by toobusytoday

Sprawl is a dirty word in my book. I hope it just stays over in Lower Macungie... Planned growth with open spaces for parks is what most people want AFAIK.

Northampton and Lehigh county are supposed to add 100K new people apiece by 2040.
Upper Saucon is predicted to double in population.

Originally Posted by toobusytoday

Most of the towns surrounding the city's in our area have been around for hundreds of years, they're not especially suburban sprawl.

The borough's are almost all from the 19th century.

The breakup in population between City/Borough. and Township in 2010 was:

Cit Bor Twsp County
39% 11% 50% Lehigh
28% 20% 53% Northampton
34% 15% 51% Two county
There are 8 boroughs in Lehigh county and 19 boroughs in Northampton county.


But certainly the percentage of population living in townships will increase in future decades.

By 2040 predictions are that Allentown will gain 20K people, Bethlehem will gain 10K, and Easton will gain 7K, but the tri-city population is predicted to drop from 34% to 30% of the two county population.

[toobusytoday]

I'm hoping our growth is small and steady with a good part of it moving to some new 55+ communities that don't add much to our schools or take away too much more of our farmland.

[PacoMartin]

Originally Posted by toobusytoday

I'm hoping our growth is small and steady with a good part of it moving to some new 55+ communities that don't add much to our schools or take away too much more of our farmland.

That may be, but I was more interested in disavowing this concept that high density luxurious apartments and urban renewal are going to handle future population growth.

It is a very common mistake. The population of Manhattan in 1890 before there was any skyscrapers was 1,515,301. Today it is 1,626,159 which is only very slightly higher.

Reality is most people are middle class, and will live in townhouses and small single family homes. Urban change in the USA usually involves a small number of wealthy people and larger numbers of poor people who live in more crowded conditions.

[PacoMartin]

Consider:
137,375 population of Allentown and portion of Bethlehem city in Lehigh county in 2010
37,489 population of 8 boroughs in Lehigh county in 2010

82,439 population of Easton and portion of Bethlehem city in Northampton county in 2010
58,586 population of 19 boroughs in Northampton county in 2010

The boroughs and the cities either stayed the same or lost population from 1960-2000. Times have changed and more people are moving into the cities in time period from 2000-2010.

But the counties should add 100,000 apiece people by 2040. It's unreasonable to think all that growth is going to be absorbed into the cities and the boroughs. Most of it will flow into the townships.

[kalisa12]

I'm curious about this, too. I lived in PA in Lehigh county from 1980 to 1995. I moved away for awhile, but returned in 2000 and stayed for three more years. When I left, it saddened me to see how Hamilton street downtown Allentown was starting to look. Security fences on the stores, loud music being piped out of them, and poor quality clothing being sold. I am thinking of moving back again, but not if it is getting overdeveloped!

[PacoMartin]

Originally Posted by kalisa12

I am thinking of moving back again, but not if it is getting overdeveloped!

Overdeveloped is hardly a word I would use. While population growth is high for Pennsylvania, it is still much lower than the nation as a whole and is positively glacial compared to some areas of the country.

The urban problems of Allentown are shared by all the cities of Southeast Pennsylvania, and other cities like Reading, Harrisburg, and York are in much worse shape. Crime is much worse in Philadelphia than Allentown.

[kalisa12]

Thanks for that perspective! It helps to get these stats, and will definitely help in my decision. I really miss the Lehigh Valley, but maybe we will aim for another part of PA.