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Dude, your timing is perfect-O-mundo on this! What you describe is exactly how it was before the crash in '08. Sales were brisk- "The little UInabomber-style shack nextdoor just sold for $450K, so imagine what MY house must be worth?!"; Houses were sold and resold for more a few months later; the character of neighborhoods changed overnight. It wasn't till the crash was already in full swing, that people started realizing that there were for-sale signs on half the houses on their block, and they weren't selling; half of 'em were in foreclosure; and the ones that did sell were selling for $150K less than they had sold for the year before, and still plummeting.
Sounds like your market is right at a top now. A year from now, the new neighbors may well be on their way back to Mongolia and (BF)Egypt, and their houses sitting empty.
Worst thing about staying in NY though, is it's gonna go into austerity mode. It practically is already, even though it is one of the richest places in the country. They'll take even more from those whom they consider the "haves" (Like if you HAVE a home, a job or a pension...) and property values out east will tank even more than the rest of the island. Whereas in many other places, there essentially was no crash. Values here in Bumpkinsville actually were going up from '08 until the last year or so.
In a place like LI, you pay for the sins of others.
You can be happy out east...but being out of NY is whole other ballpark! It's like being set free. Literally.
Newsflash , this isn't 2008. You've been predicting this second crash for years now and it still hasn't happened let me guess, this is the year. No 2017! 2018! Your like that economist they call dr doom who predicts economic collapse every single year. What's really the issue here is the LI housing market is doing surprisingly well and it's KILLING you. You so badly want to see LI turn into Detroit so you can say from your double wide "see I told you so!" But it just isn't happening.
Even the crash on LI was nothing compared to other parts of the country, you are talking about 60 year old overvalued houses that went from like 600k to 450k. Some crash. Other parts of the country fared much much worse.
When we were house hunting and were looking at houses in NHP/ Herricks SD, majority of the houses in the market was due to either the owner passing away and the children want to sell the house or the owners are old and is moving in with a child or moving out of NY. And the people that were looking to buy were young couples or middle age families buying for their young child to move into. And the reason was the school district. Young couples are looking to buy in good SD. It has to be hard for retired people with limited income to pay the high tax for good SD and specially when they no longer have children that's benefiting from the high tax. It make sense they want to move elsewhere that doesn't require them to pay a huge tax.
I'm moving because of equal doses of QOL & finances.
Tired of being ass raped financially to live someplace where I'm absolutely miserable.
Hate it here.
I'm moving because of equal doses of QOL & finances.
Tired of being ass raped financially to live someplace where I'm absolutely miserable.
Hate it here.
You're right, 100%. Thing is - places like Pittsburgh - healthy housing stock, healthy job market, relatively unaffected by the crash never lost a lot of value BUT never gained a lot of value. Great Neck, Manhasset, Port Washington, Herricks SD, these places will go down but also up w/ the US economy. As long as a day after tomorrow tsunami doesn't wipe out NYC they will be in demand and basically bulletproof. NYC=Jobs=Money= the entirity of Westchester/LI.
It's inevitable but I feel like we forget there are places like Montclair or Maplewood NJ that will pay $28k taxes on a $700k house....
The thing is, more and more, those GOOD jobs which are necessary to sustain the high prices, as well as the tax base which supports the civil service jobs which half the island is dependent upon, are getting fewer and fewer; and more and more middle and upper-middle class types are leaving, and being replaced with third-world laborers. More asnd more businesses- both white collar and blue collar, flee NY. How long can such be sustained, without dramatically affecting RE values?
The RE crash of '08 was precipitated by junk mortgages and people being heavily re-fi'ed... the next crash will be precipitated by the fact that the creators of wealth are being forced out. Places like Pittsburgh, and Bumpkinsville never experienced the bubble, so we never had the crash in '08- in fact, many such places do well at such times.
If your house is paid for, or you bought when it was cheap and didn't re-fi, and don't plan on moving, then the crash doesn't really affect you- but if you bough near the top, are upside down, or want to/have to get out (like if your job goes away and you can't find one which pays comparably), then you have a problem- and that's the way it is in places like LI.
I mean, let's face it- LI has been going through cycles of boom and bust every 10 years or so, for decades, in one degree or another. c.1980; late 80's; c.00(Dot-com crash); '08. and each one seems to be worse than the one which preceded it (except perhaps for late 80's). Virtually all of the crashes affect many areas of the country- but LI always seems to be among the hardest hit- likely because it so expensive, and so dependent upon high-paying jobs and a huge tax base; and so many people are highly in debt. Little things are magnified.
Contrast that with a place like where I now live- where a much higher percentage of people own their homes free and clear. We can save when times are good; and when times are bad, it doesn't affect how we live, because COL is so low- it may just mean that we can't save as much...but we're not going to lose our homes; or be unable to pay our property taxes, no matter what. Such is not feasible for the vast majority of people in a place like LI.
The thing is, more and more, those GOOD jobs which are necessary to sustain the high prices, as well as the tax base which supports the civil service jobs which half the island is dependent upon, are getting fewer and fewer; and more and more middle and upper-middle class types are leaving, and being replaced with third-world laborers. More asnd more businesses- both white collar and blue collar, flee NY. How long can such be sustained, without dramatically affecting RE values?
The RE crash of '08 was precipitated by junk mortgages and people being heavily re-fi'ed... the next crash will be precipitated by the fact that the creators of wealth are being forced out. Places like Pittsburgh, and Bumpkinsville never experienced the bubble, so we never had the crash in '08- in fact, many such places do well at such times.
If your house is paid for, or you bought when it was cheap and didn't re-fi, and don't plan on moving, then the crash doesn't really affect you- but if you bough near the top, are upside down, or want to/have to get out (like if your job goes away and you can't find one which pays comparably), then you have a problem- and that's the way it is in places like LI.
I mean, let's face it- LI has been going through cycles of boom and bust every 10 years or so, for decades, in one degree or another. c.1980; late 80's; c.00(Dot-com crash); '08. and each one seems to be worse than the one which preceded it (except perhaps for late 80's). Virtually all of the crashes affect many areas of the country- but LI always seems to be among the hardest hit- likely because it so expensive, and so dependent upon high-paying jobs and a huge tax base; and so many people are highly in debt. Little things are magnified.
Contrast that with a place like where I now live- where a much higher percentage of people own their homes free and clear. We can save when times are good; and when times are bad, it doesn't affect how we live, because COL is so low- it may just mean that we can't save as much...but we're not going to lose our homes; or be unable to pay our property taxes, no matter what. Such is not feasible for the vast majority of people in a place like LI.
This is a narrative i hear a lot, but is it true? Have any areas really fallen apart or been taken over by day laborers over, let's say the past 20 years? I think Long Island has been remarkably stable since I've been alive, at least. Places like Hempstead, Huntington Station, New Cassell, Brentwood etc. have been in poor shape for quite a long time. They seem no better or worse now. Places like Valley Stream and Baldwin have gotten more diverse, but can you really argue they've fallen down the ladder economically? I would argue they are exactly the same. Prime North Shore seems wealthier than ever and "good" South Shore towns have become more desirable, too. The only long-term trend I can see is that Suffolk has gotten a bit more crowded. Pretty remarkable, considering Long Island has indeed lost many big employers. My theory is that more Long Islanders may be working in the city and many smaller employers have replaced fewer large employers.
There's a lot of money sloshing around Long Island. Unemployment is low, median income is quite high. Things are expensive, but a lot of people have money and are doing just fine. This is no consolation for people who are struggling, and people who are unhappy tend to pipe up more and complain. People who are relatively content are more quiet.
There's a lot of money sloshing around Long Island. Unemployment is low, median income is quite high. Things are expensive, but a lot of people have money and are doing just fine. This is no consolation for people who are struggling, and people who are unhappy tend to pipe up more and complain. People who are relatively content are more quiet.
There's a lot of money sloshing around Long Island. Unemployment is low, median income is quite high. Things are expensive, but a lot of people have money and are doing just fine. This is no consolation for people who are struggling, and people who are unhappy tend to pipe up more and complain. People who are relatively content are more quiet.
What do you all think?
I agree, but only up to a point. If NY City's economy goes south (again), LI will crash much harder. Nassau in particular is tethered economically to NYC more than ever, as there's few viable businesses left here.
As Wall Street goes, so goes NY's economy. I also see some back office Wall Street jobs moving out of state or eliminated altogether. How many of you still trade stocks with a broker, as opposed to sites like Ameritrade?
Also, taxes here are about 5x the national average, while salaries are under $54K. The national average salary is under $52K. The COL of living on LI is at least 30% higher than average. This disparity is unsustainable, and I don't think I'm being a tin foil hat wearer for saying so.
I'm willing to listen to sense. Somebody convince me I'm wrong.
I agree, but only up to a point. If NY City's economy goes south (again), LI will crash much harder. Nassau in particular is tethered economically to NYC more than ever, as there's few viable businesses left here.
As Wall Street goes, so goes NY's economy. I also see some back office Wall Street jobs moving out of state or eliminated altogether. How many of you still trade stocks with a broker, as opposed to sites like Ameritrade?
Also, taxes here are about 5x the national average, while salaries are under $54K. The national average salary is under $52K. The COL of living on LI is at least 30% higher than average. This disparity is unsustainable, and I don't think I'm being a tin foil hat wearer for saying so.
I'm willing to listen to sense. Somebody convince me I'm wrong.
How much did house values dip in Nassau in 2008-2009? Have they fully recovered now?
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