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Old 07-10-2010, 06:32 PM
 
17 posts, read 17,160 times
Reputation: 44

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Her and her firm have nailed the past couple of years events with a high degree of accuracy. This next leg down in housing will be a combination credit issue ,in conjunction with banks finally releasing held inventories onto the market. You will soon see the day when 500,000 will buy you a modernized, modest home in a good school district on Long Island!


MEREDITH WHITNEY: PREPARE FOR A “DRAMATIC” DECLINE IN HOUSING | PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM
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Old 07-10-2010, 09:10 PM
 
83 posts, read 254,948 times
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I hope she is right, housing prices in LI just don't make sense. Housing prices in LI need to get back to where the middle class can afford a home without having to eat cat food for dinner every night.
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Old 07-10-2010, 09:34 PM
 
Location: Long Island
9,531 posts, read 15,886,849 times
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when is this "soon" everyone keeps talking about?
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Old 07-11-2010, 08:14 AM
 
Location: Union County
6,151 posts, read 10,031,455 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rh71 View Post
when is this "soon" everyone keeps talking about?
Check the link...

"Meredith Whitney is expecting big trouble in housing in the next 9 months and she thinks it could topple the banks all over again. She also elaborates on her macro outlook for the economy:"
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Old 07-11-2010, 09:24 AM
 
2,851 posts, read 3,475,383 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rh71 View Post
when is this "soon" everyone keeps talking about?
Depends. First, nothing happens overnight. Not even stocks. People need home turnover so that is a lagging indicator. Secondly, the .gov is pretty much printing money trying to keep people in their homes so the economics of commerce in this case is going to be faulty. Couple those with the Long Islander "Nothing-ever-drops-on-LI" (buyer and seller) thought process its even more of a deflated lag indicator.

Good news: we dropped from the high side. Bad: people think this is a good time to buy.
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Old 07-11-2010, 02:45 PM
 
11 posts, read 21,527 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MG4251 View Post
You will soon see the day when 500,000 will buy you a modernized, modest home in a good school district on Long Island!


MEREDITH WHITNEY: PREPARE FOR A “DRAMATIC†DECLINE IN HOUSING | PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM

and property taxes on that house will be $15K+ no matter what the price.
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Old 07-12-2010, 08:29 AM
 
2,851 posts, read 3,475,383 times
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Originally Posted by shamrock777 View Post
and property taxes on that house will be $15K+ no matter what the price.
Unfortunately yes, until you get a reassasment. Much of Brookhaven is overassessed by as much as 25% in some circumstances. My friends home was assessed over 100K from what his purchase prices was and he's still going back and forth with lawyers to get it brought down. Best thing to do is to voice your opinion to your school boards or whomever is giving teachers contracts as they are the majority of the property tax bill.
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Old 07-12-2010, 08:31 AM
 
13,511 posts, read 17,038,460 times
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Originally Posted by SilverBulletZ06 View Post
Unfortunately yes, until you get a reassasment. Much of Brookhaven is overassessed by as much as 25% in some circumstances. My friends home was assessed over 100K from what his purchase prices was and he's still going back and forth with lawyers to get it brought down. Best thing to do is to voice your opinion to your school boards or whomever is giving teachers contracts as they are the majority of the property tax bill.

They will just raise the rate across the board to get the same net effect. You think they are going to let revenues go down by 25%?


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Old 07-12-2010, 09:54 AM
 
Location: Columbia, Mo.
25 posts, read 65,218 times
Reputation: 14
Is there a Web site that lists all of the taxes for each town and village?
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Old 07-12-2010, 10:51 AM
 
341 posts, read 1,535,972 times
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Originally Posted by dman72 View Post
They will just raise the rate across the board to get the same net effect. You think they are going to let revenues go down by 25%?


Bingo... the tax burden is what it is... the assessment just says who pays what share (you, compared to your neighbors). So, if everybody goes down 25% because the market tanks... your share of the burden stays the same.

The taxes on Long Island freak me out even more than the prices...

Prices are what they are - you negotiate your selling price and your interest rate before you sign your papers and close. that's on the buyer.

But the tax rates are just insane... and I don't see anybody fixing it. Maybe slowing it... but never lowering it. People will be forced to move/sell/rent etc just based on taxes alone. It's sad really.

On the subject of price/values falling...

I bought last year prepared for the notion that I might take another 10% hit in the short term (as in 5 years). I didn't buy expecting to flip. I also bought less house than I could "afford" (according to banks and brokers) so that we can afford to ride it out instead of selling at a loss.

At closing, our sellers told us that in 2007, they had an unsolicited offer of 535K on their house and held out because they weren't ready to move (retire) - we bought it last year for just over 400K - appraised for 430. So..., I'd say we were probably looking at 15-20% drops from the "bubble" - when we bought. Another 10% felt like a realistic "risk factor" for me.

We could have held out... but we found a perfect house in terms of size and location (and price) and rates were very low (increasing our buying powere) - just set up a refi this week to drop another .75 points.
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