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The projections done in school districts are based on broad birth-rates and local real estate. I got the impression from reading some of these projections that there are going to be fewer children in Long Island this decade, for every single school district and area. School enrollment peaked in 2006 for Jericho, and is expected to come down 1-2% every year on the average and stabilizing about 2019.
If GC has a different trend, that will be interesting to note.
Majority of Catholics + big houses = lots of kids. I can't even tell you how many families I know with 4,5,6 kids, and i know at least 3 people expecting their 5th.
I have to look for the projected enrollment, it was in the bond proposal last fall for adding on to the primary.
There are 25 kids in the first grades this year - that's huge for a district like GC. The past few years have been up and down - just using the 1st grade for example - some years it's 21 kids, some years it's been as high as 24 - but never 25 (and one class has 26 kids).
Houses are smaller on this side of town as well, so you are dealing with population density too.
The school systems of Sysosset and Jericho have excessed teachers in recent years due to the fading enrollment. The chief anecdotal reason is the taxes. Not as many young families moving in to take over the 35k property tax bill in Muttontown (or the 20k one on the expanded ranch in Jericho). Other areas in my personal experience - both Happauge schools and Smithtown - have seen increases. Chief anecdotal reason, young families pushed eastward as the housing prices spiked in an effort to get more for their money, find something a little bit cheaper. My district just reopened the second high school two years ago. Will be interesting to see how this trends.
My district (Malverne) had a 10 year study done and there is a predicted 2% increase annually predicted through 2017. I know there was a dip in the prior 2 years but my husband and I thought the lack of families wanting to have children after 9/11 might have attributed. Last year we had the biggest incoming kindergarten class in years. Either way I can't see enrollment trending down until the economy regains it's strenghth. This recession scared many families into changing their spending habits and lifestyles IMO.
The school systems of Sysosset and Jericho have excessed teachers in recent years due to the fading enrollment. The chief anecdotal reason is the taxes. Not as many young families moving in to take over the 35k property tax bill in Muttontown (or the 20k one on the expanded ranch in Jericho). Other areas in my personal experience - both Happauge schools and Smithtown - have seen increases. Chief anecdotal reason, young families pushed eastward as the housing prices spiked in an effort to get more for their money, find something a little bit cheaper. My district just reopened the second high school two years ago. Will be interesting to see how this trends.
Was the excise due to declining enrollment or to keep the tax levy down?
My district is becoming over crowded.
However, according to what I've heard "through the grapevine" this is due to the non-resident Queens kids coming in with the Aunt/Uncle address scam and not due to a population increase. I've also been told the district is well aware of this problem, yet don't know how to go about solving it. I think it's a very simple fix. Whatever.
In our district they began legally pursuing tuition reimbursement from the illegal families and if they can't be located or can't pay they go after the legal residents that allowed their address to be used.
Economy has alot to do with how many kids people have.....I expect like everything, its a cycle and we will be on the downtrend for a while. When I was in school in the late 70's, they started to close schools due to enrollement. Those schools were reopen several years ago.
I believe that is another reason school taxes rose at high percentage rates.
here in East meadow they stupidly sold the buildings and build more houses...all because the 'baby-boom' was over
I don't know about Syosset, but Jericho's enrollment has been stable in the last few years at around 3100. But what I am talking about is not the current enrollment, but projected enrollment after 5 years. Enrollments are expected to stabilize around 2600 in 2019. I am not aware of any 'excessing' in Jericho.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jrprofess
The school systems of Sysosset and Jericho have excessed teachers in recent years due to the fading enrollment. The chief anecdotal reason is the taxes. Not as many young families moving in to take over the 35k property tax bill in Muttontown (or the 20k one on the expanded ranch in Jericho). Other areas in my personal experience - both Happauge schools and Smithtown - have seen increases. Chief anecdotal reason, young families pushed eastward as the housing prices spiked in an effort to get more for their money, find something a little bit cheaper. My district just reopened the second high school two years ago. Will be interesting to see how this trends.
I also see what you are seeing. I only have one child, but GC does seem to have a lot of 4 kid families. In the end, it may not be a bad thing. Europe is struggling badly with very low birthrates. They have an aging society that simply can't sustain itself or its elderly population.
Maybe the Italians and Irish in GC are onto something
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