Housing Bubble 2.0 analysis (homes, buying, tax)

[k374]

Originally Posted by Astral_Weeks

William Yu (UCLA economist) published a piece in the LA Times in 2015 discussing this measure as it applied to the LA market. [/url]

Not sure if I would believe anything UCLA Anderson puts out... I remember reading their pieces pre crash in 2008 and they were dead wrong on just about everything. Many people read their crappy stuff and lost everything.

[taimaishu]

Originally Posted by 69Charger

It's always better in the long run, to buy a place and pay it off so you can retire. The mistake comes when people use their home as an ATM.

Also, L.A. is cyclical but the next leg up is always higher. And that's just plain ol inflation.

The Fed will "solve" the next recession with a $1 trillion QE package, this has already been discussed. They could also do a government 2% APR type mortgage program. They will always find some way to artificially juice things.

hmmm. Where does the 1 Trillion come from? Out of their @....?

[69Charger]

Originally Posted by taimaishu

hmmm. Where does the 1 Trillion come from? Out of their @....?

Nope, out of ours!

[Astral_Weeks]

Originally Posted by k374

Not sure if I would believe anything UCLA Anderson puts out... I remember reading their pieces pre crash in 2008 and they were dead wrong on just about everything. Many people read their crappy stuff and lost everything.

But Christopher Thornberg called the bubble as early as 2004/2005 and he was at the UCLA Anderson Forecast at that time.

Here he is in 2005 calling the LA/Calif. housing market a bubble.

http://www.pbs.org/now/politics/thornberg.html

[ryanms3030]

As soon as I got to the part about value being based on potential rent cost vs monthly mortgage payments I knew this guy was full of you know what. How does that formula account for cash sales, people that own property outright or the fact that some people might put down 3% and others might put down 50% so monthly mortgage on the same property could be vastly different. Just more click bait. If anyone could accurately forecast the real estate market or stock market they could package that and sell it.

LA real estate is going up and will keep going up just like all of the other highly desirable areas to live. LA, SF, NYC etc are not the same market as rural Ohio

[thelopez2]

Originally Posted by Snoozefest

Yes, Cost of Debt has an effect on asset prices. That does not make them under, or overvalued though. It is simply baked into the overall pricing model.

The FED pumping money has absolutely nothing to do with a specific housing bubble in LOS ANGELES. If the Fed pumping money at the NATIONAL level caused housing bubbles then every single market in the country would be a bubble, no?

The fed has doubled the Federal Funds Rate from 0.5% to 1.0% in the last year. If the rate doubles again from 1.0% to 2.0% in the next 12 months, do you think the "bubble" in Los Angeles will pop?

If you read other city forums, the bubble question keeps popping up. Is xyz experiencing a housing bubble, should I wait to buy?

No, it was at 5% last time it burst.

[thelopez2]

NINJA, Neg Am, 1% loans, you didn't need to be an economist to know something was going to blowup.

[69Charger]

CNBC said now that chronic is legal, Los Angeles will surpass Denver as the revenue leader in the industry. This is going to bring billions into CA, and the El Lay area. That, along with Silicone Beach, the ports, and the logistics/warehousing explosion, I see no decline coming. Only more people.

[jm1982]

Originally Posted by 69Charger

CNBC said now that chronic is legal, Los Angeles will surpass Denver as the revenue leader in the industry. This is going to bring billions into CA, and the El Lay area. That, along with Silicone Beach, the ports, and the logistics/warehousing explosion, I see no decline coming. Only more people.

CNBC ? Fake News!

I could see the recreational market getting big in CA if visitors are allowed to buy like they can in Denver .

But sometimes it seems like there is a certain hype around stuff like marijuana .. and the media loves to write articles about it .
I mean anyone that wants it now can get it "medically " if they have a CA Drivers license right?

I think it's similar to the football stadium transforming Inglewood into some kind of paradise type of mentality .
That football stadium is going to be delayed too btw


Opening of Inglewood stadium delayed until 2020 - NFL.com

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by panspv

Pretty funny that he uses AMZN stock price as an example of a bubble.

AMZN is up 2700% since 2005. Take any analysis with a grain of salt. When it comes to housing, buy what you would be willing to live in and can afford. If that doesn't exist, rent. Pretty simple.

Since no one can project a bubble, and we are not near one now, the real reason for buying is you can afford a house and you plan on living in it for a long time and NEVER borrowing against it. If you can afford it and have a good solid job, buy now. If you can't afford it now, get a better job as things will not change enough for you to buy now if you cannot afford it; and if a "bubble" did pop it would also mean jobs would go away and .... well they still would not be able to buy.