Housing market peaking? (Los Angeles, Ontario, Fontana: homes, living, cost of living)

[jm1982]

Article from today

Valley home prices have never been higher, and housing has never been more scarce. Here’s why

https://www.dailynews.com/2018/01/22...rce-heres-why/

[yenal]

Mortgage interest rates are rising. Any idea if it will have significant effect on the market?

[scgali]

In SD I've noticed the good properties still go within a week (ocean view, good locations, etc). There's definitely still a lot of money out there and people willing to pay for the desirable properties. The ones that sit are either grossly overpriced or in a bad location. If things are priced at market value though, they are still moving.

[pharmboyinSD]

Interest rates continue to be historically low, so it is still a good time to lock a mortgage. My Dad reminded told me his first mortgage interest rate was in the teens (~14%) during the Ronald Reagan Era, when people considered houses to be guaranteed appreciating investments.

Originally Posted by yenal

Mortgage interest rates are rising. Any idea if it will have significant effect on the market?

I don't think the market has peaked and I feel it will continue to grow into 2018. As long as the rich get richer and there are no restrictions to foreign investors, local market values will continue to grow. I say this when I compare property values across the world, not just in the US.

[ima30something]

Originally Posted by yenal

Mortgage interest rates are rising. Any idea if it will have significant effect on the market?

Interest rates are still lower than 2004 - 2010. It's still a good time to buy.

My dad was paying 12% interest on our home in the 80s.

[Finper]

Originally Posted by ima30something

Interest rates are still lower than 2004 - 2010. It's still a good time to buy.

My dad was paying 12% interest on our home in the 80s.

It might be a good time to buy but not many in CA can afford to buy. My friend is thinking of buying a investment property in NV.... now that'd be smart

[Finper]

Originally Posted by K0D0

Yes, buying investment property in NV at peak of the market is genius. Nevada real estate didn't get destroyed during the downturn at all.

at least she could afford to buy something there and what makes you think this is the peak?? If this is a peak buying in Ca isn't to bright either. We were second to NV in the recession

[Cloudwalker]

I'd look in San Bernadino or Riverside counties for an investment property before Nevada. They are areas that were much slower to improve than other parts of the greater LA area, so prices are still considerably lower and affordable, but it is now starting to rapidly appreciate, between 12-24 % last year depending on the area.

There seem to be a lot of jobs in or coming to the area, with a steady demand for housing. Both renters and buyers are going further out as they get priced out of closer areas.

As always, you'd want to pick your location with care, but it would be much easier to manage than a property that's in another state.

[LoveMeSomeSFVHouses]

Originally Posted by K0D0

The states that were absolutely crushed by the mortgage crisis were NV and FL. Core CA areas actually performed the best in the downturn and recovered extremely quickly.

Just curious, how much have you invested in the last 12 months in real estate? My shop put out about $100 MM in 2017 all of it in CA & WA. At this point of the cycle you couldn't pay me to put money into NV. This is when you want to derisk your portfolio, not the reverse. But I am sure you are definitely a real estate expert and can evaluate what is a "smart" investment and the advice you give your friend will be invaluable.

Okay K0D0, I'll bite (not that I disagree with you because I think you're right)... but what is your shop investing in right now?

[MuscleCar]

Originally Posted by Cloudwalker

I'd look in San Bernadino or Riverside counties for an investment property before Nevada. They are areas that were much slower to improve than other parts of the greater LA area, so prices are still considerably lower and affordable, but it is now starting to rapidly appreciate, between 12-24 % last year depending on the area.

There seem to be a lot of jobs in or coming to the area, with a steady demand for housing. Both renters and buyers are going further out as they get priced out of closer areas.

As always, you'd want to pick your location with care, but it would be much easier to manage than a property that's in another state.

The Inland Empire used to be Fontana, now it's Beaumont and Menifee, as people realize settling for something relatively close to L.A. (Fontana) is better than a mega commute.

Plus, the I-15 area has a ton more to offer than it did 15 years ago. Victoria Gardens, Ontario Mills, and Citizens Business Bank Arena are not Los Angeles proper amenities, but they are something that 35+ people are able to be happy with, similar to most other major metros but still with good weather (compared to U.S.) although an also comparable high cost of living.

Another difference the last 10 years, the Inland Empire warehouse explosion. Massive employment that didn't exist 10 years ago, now exists.