now the time to buy? (Odenton: buying, zip code, prices)

[SmokeyLisa]

I purchased a home about 6 months and I had no problem getting credit and was prequalified with multiple lenders. I did put 20% down, my credit score was good but not 825 and I went to two Big Lenders and a 3rd lender out of VA. I used there rate to get a lower rate at the other two big banks.

I think housing prices will continue to fall because of jobless rates, foreclosures, people wanting to sell but can't plus there is pressure on the upper end of the housing market as more people are more aware about over extending themselves. Also, if you believe in the income / home price ratio, then some areas still need to fall.

Also, I'm not sure how much building towns will let occur especially if they have rules on construction vs. school utilization. More people are taking their kids out of private schools and putting them in public, so school utilization my increase and in this economy most people do not want to discuss building a new school or raising taxes but that is what communities will be forced to do.

But of course, no one knows when the bottom will happen. We rented for the past 3 years, in another town where we were hoping to buy a home, we did not want to keep our family unsettled so we eventually we took the plunge even though I felt housing prices would continue to fall. We tried to get the best deal possible and enjoy our house. Plus we made money on previous places so we can afford to lose a little but we are crossing our fingers that we do not lose anything.

I often wonder if all of these people who are underwater, made money on previous homes or not. I feel for the first time buyers who entered the market at the wrong time but I have a lot less sympathy for people who made money and then either bought a bigger home or took equity out for other things. I rarely hear stories about the number of first time buyers who are being foreclosed upon vs. others.

[mamaecho]

We are in the process of getting our home, hopefully by the end of the month. We have less than stellar credit, one income, but haven't had any problems in the loan or underwriting department!

But that may be because we purchasing very, very well within our means and have proven through rent record to be able to afford our new monthly payment?

We are also going through USDA Rural loan program, zero percent down, low interest rate.. it's great so far!

[TeamBenya]

for people that are getting their first home, or don't currently have another mortgage on another property, getting a loan isn't that hard. People who are trying to buy a second home though do find considerably more difficulty than normal. My suspicion is due to the "buy and bail" that so many people took to after they first found themselves underwater. It's much higher risk for a lender to write a loan on a second home for folks these days.

[Richard Martin]

This is all I'm going to say on this subject. Don't be John. If it doesn't feel right or you are having second doubts then walk away.

[Richard Martin]

Originally Posted by gumbo31

I bought in Seven Oaks near Fort Meade. At some point this area will be booming again because of BRAC.

I agree. You will see some new building in Seven Oaks but...

The Capital published an article last year from the commission charged with the overall planning. They are expecting the major new development to occur west of 295. The major reason is the cost to build anything in AA Co is very high. That is the main reason you never see any starter homes built in AA Co.

[AlicynD]

There is a projected housing shortage in 2011, in the Ft.Meade and surrounding area due to BRAC. No one has a crystal ball, but this is what they are saying with the influx of people coming to the area. If you can afford to buy and are planning on being somewhere for at least a couple of a years, BUY. Interest rates are still fairly low and prices are stable. The $8,000 tax credit, that expires April 30th, has really caused anything under $450K to fly off the shelves in the past month and a half.

[AlicynD]

mamaecho - you got in with the USDA Rural Loan Program at the right time. I heard their funds will be exhausted by the end of April..if not sooner.

[Richard Martin]

Originally Posted by AlicynD

If you can afford to buy and are planning on being somewhere for at least a couple of a years, BUY. Interest rates are still fairly low and prices are stable. The $8,000 tax credit, that expires April 30th, has really caused anything under $450K to fly off the shelves in the past month and a half.

Typical real estate agent BS. The Odenton zip code stats beg to differ with your claim that prices are stable.

YOY (year over year) February stats for Odenton 21113 says... average prices are off 6.55%, median are off 3.04% and average list price for solds is off 7.85%. There is currently a 7 month supply of homes there and that is well about the normal 4 month supply. There are also a ton of homes coming on the market at this time.

In Nov 09 33 homes sold there.
In Dec 09 23 homes sold there.
In Jan 10 16 homes sold there.
In Feb 10 24 homes sold there.

If anything it looks like the last 45 days have been down in sales.

This is exactly what I'm talking about when I tell you to do your own research.

I do agree that the interest rates are probably going to rise. The Fed stops buying bad MBS today.

[TeamBenya]

Originally Posted by Richard Martin

Typical real estate agent BS. The Odenton zip code stats beg to differ with your claim that prices are stable.

YOY (year over year) February stats for Odenton 21113 says... average prices are off 6.55%, median are off 3.04% and average list price for solds is off 7.85%. There is currently a 7 month supply of homes there and that is well about the normal 4 month supply. There are also a ton of homes coming on the market at this time.

In Nov 09 33 homes sold there.
In Dec 09 23 homes sold there.
In Jan 10 16 homes sold there.
In Feb 10 24 homes sold there.

If anything it looks like the last 45 days have been down in sales.

This is exactly what I'm talking about when I tell you to do your own research.

I do agree that the interest rates are probably going to rise. The Fed stops buying bad MBS today.

You're right, knowledge is power, and it's always best to research it for yourself.

Let's be fair about the market, though. True, it's not a bed of roses, but I don't know if the dip in sales you're referring to is a function of the market or a function of a REALLY bad weather snap that we went through (it's difficult to show houses in 3' of snow)

I appreciate the fact you are trying to make a point, but if your point is that data can be manipulated to show what someone wants, you're as guilty as AlicynD.

Look a little deeper into the sales:

Pull the sales for the last 5 months:

http://www.mris.com/reports/stats/zip_stats.cfm (broken link)

Over the last 5 months, every single month has had more sales than it did the previous year. The exception is January, which had heavy snowfalls, and December, which has the same amount of sales the previous year.

You're right that oversupply is still a problem, but if you look at the average time a home is on the market in this area, it's fallen dramatically from the previous year. That's a good early sign for recovery because it means houses aren't sitting on the market as long. (February 2010 average was 85 days, February 2009 average was 138)

It's also good to look at what the sales price is as an average percentage of the list price. You'll notice that has been trending up as well. This can happen for one of two reasons. either sellers are more realistic about the value of the home, or buyers are willing to spend closer to the list price for what is currently on the market. Either way, it's a good indicator for early market recovery.

Average sales prices are still down, but the only proper way to look at numbers like that is to gather 3-4 years of historical averages and chart the monthly flow. The reason I say this is because when you have an area with so few transactions, any atypical transaction (ex. $600k+ or >$100k)
will cause a heavy skew in the month it occurs. That sort of bias will damage an average's accuracy, but sales prices are still down historically. It is worth noting, however:

10/09 Avg Sales Price: $ 294,300
11/09 Avg Sales Price: $ 302,179
12/09 Avg Sales Price: $ 309,085
1/10 Avg Sales Price: $ 322,005
2/10 Avg Sales Price: $ 281,750

Month over month, avg sales price has risen, until 2/10. It's hard to say without more data if this is a sign of recovery with a single month of skewed data, or 5 months of skewed data with one month that is more accurate.

[mamaecho]

Originally Posted by AlicynD

mamaecho - you got in with the USDA Rural Loan Program at the right time. I heard their funds will be exhausted by the end of April..if not sooner.

yeah I know!! We talked to our lender and we are fine.. but barely!