MA population growth has been slowing - its declining now (Boston: apartment, house)

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by btownboss4

With that moderate Immigration completely evaporating for 4 months that sunk Massachusetts (in March Trump Totally suspended new visa’s.) plus you’re talking ~7,500-8000 excess deaths as of July 1st. Plus the youngins moving back home to NH which wil come back most likely in 2021 or 2022.

25k might be high but this number probably fortells strongish growth in the mid 2020’s if Immigration restriction ease to Obama levels.

Massachusetts certainly isn’t in the same boat as New York (although when Immigration kicks back into gear it will slow its hemmoraging or Illinois (which maybe Climate Change will save, eventually)

I definitely agree with this. Massachusetts has sustained its immigration better than just about any state throughout the Trump administration. Under Biden it’s going to be very strong if things get back in track. However, I’m confident MA will see continued growth in outward domestic migration. The difference is in Massachusetts it probably more a fleeing middle class than an upper (middle) class like in CT.

[maclel]

Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade

Taxation is a large part of it. But the lack of building certainly hasn’t eased the wealth inequality and other racial gaps that they have. In term they have to fund the dysfunction and lower classes perpetually with her and higher taxes as more and more of their population slips into the have nots. This has extended into MA and RI.

When you keep people from becoming middle class homeowner they eventually become a dreg and a tax burden. Evause they’re forced to live in lower income rental heavy areas and that remains they’re social network.

You cite the move away from expensive suburbs. Well when the city is expensive to people flee to cheaper suburbs. This is likely what the 30,000 people who moved out of MA between 2018 and 2019 did when they moved to Arizona..

CT and NJ are not particularly bad in terms of upward mobility and MA is actually one of the very best states under that lens. Northeastern migrants are moving to lower upward mobility areas in the South. There is negative correlation between net population flows and upward mobility.

The difference is that Northeastern states are deeply blue and try to provide more state welfare, which is clearly backfiring as long as there is inter-state arbitrage. The tri-state area will have a reckoning in the not-so distant future in my opinion.

https://www.businessinsider.com/inco...-map-us-2018-2

If given a chance people will flee high cost of living areas. If an area does not offer high-paying jobs it will be hard to retain that population. CT and NJ benefited from their proximity to NY but as younger people optimized for a shorter commute, they have fallen out of favor.

[mdovell]

Originally Posted by maclel

CT and NJ are not particularly bad in terms of upward mobility and MA is actually one of the very best states under that lens. Northeastern migrants are moving to lower upward mobility areas in the South. There is negative correlation between net population flows and upward mobility.

The difference is that Northeastern states are deeply blue and try to provide more state welfare, which is clearly backfiring as long as there is inter-state arbitrage. The tri-state area will have a reckoning in the not-so distant future in my opinion.

https://www.businessinsider.com/inco...-map-us-2018-2

If given a chance people will flee high cost of living areas. If an area does not offer high-paying jobs it will be hard to retain that population. CT and NJ benefited from their proximity to NY but as younger people optimized for a shorter commute, they have fallen out of favor.

Yes and no. Alaska has the oil dividend. They give a fair amount
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Permanent_Fund

Like you say the south isn't exactly upward mobility. A cheap place might be ok for living for a bit but it might not be wage growth. telecommutting changes some of this but still. There's a difference between say someone moving from Manhattan to Brooklyn (I know of a blogger that did this) and say SF to Idaho.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

Stupid question perhaps, but that doesn’t take into consideration the 11k deaths from Covid (or other deaths)?

The majority of Massachusetts COVID-19 deaths have been in nursing homes. If you consider the median nursing home stay before death where 65% die in less than a year, most of those would have died in 2020 anyways. Of that 11k, I’d guess at least half would have died in 2020 of other causes.

On the population topic, Massachusetts has a lot of out of state college students who would be declaring residence in a normal year. I’d bet there were a ton of grad students who would normally take teaching assistant and research assistant jobs who opted out in 2020. Also, the service sector collapsed. I’d guess a number of younger workers doing the Boston experience bailed out when the $600/week expired. They’re in their parents basement in some other state collecting Massachusetts unemployment.

[mdovell]

The other part of people that might not be counted is inmates. I know of a town manager that was asked a few times about why don't they just build a prison to get the population up. the trouble is then you have families that hike up to be closer to family that that isn't a good long term plan.

I'd argue that if students don't really have to go into class then yes they are potentially with their folks takin gclasses online.

[airunxc]

I think population tracking will be the wrong statistic to track in the 21st century and we should focus on developed/built square footage per acre of state to really get a sense of economic projection. Let's go through a couple of examples.

1) Snowbirds/Desert Pigeons. More and more people are going to live in multiple places throughout the year thanks to work from home, flexibility etc. Climate Change will also increase this. People will want out of Phoenix in July just as much as Boston wants out in January.

2) Agricultural automation. Think about Iowa for a moment. It is the most developed state in the country. What you might say? Well there aren't big forests, wetlands, cities, etc, but much of the land has been impacted by humans and is used by humans. So while population has been decreasing there, the people left can do ok if they own the means of production and the land. Maine lumber would function the same way as Iowa corn, its just not as subsidize by Fed Govt from imports so not as much money for land owners and ability to keep people in state.

There's probably more here to investigate, but I think tracking how much square footage is being built in Massachusetts or land being used is more important than number of people here.

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

The majority of Massachusetts COVID-19 deaths have been in nursing homes. If you consider the median nursing home stay before death where 65% die in less than a year, most of those would have died in 2020 anyways. Of that 11k, I’d guess at least half would have died in 2020 of other causes.

On the population topic, Massachusetts has a lot of out of state college students who would be declaring residence in a normal year. I’d bet there were a ton of grad students who would normally take teaching assistant and research assistant jobs who opted out in 2020. Also, the service sector collapsed. I’d guess a number of younger workers doing the Boston experience bailed out when the $600/week expired. They’re in their parents basement in some other state collecting Massachusetts unemployment.

The thing is the census is normally taken in April when most college students were still around. But these yearly estimates are taken when college students would already be home, in July. As they are every year.

So college students don’t matter here

[msRB311]

I’m not sure why so many immigrants come to Boston. Unless they are educated and will make a high salary they aren’t going to have a very good life here. Seems like immigrants are attracted to cities but they’d be just as well out by Worcester or Springfield. The cost of living in the Boston area is just so high.

I noticed people leaving Boston more often around 2014. People realized they could move to lower cost of living cities and still make a good salary. Plus a lot of people hate winter.

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by msRB311

I’m not sure why so many immigrants come to Boston. Unless they are educated and will make a high salary they aren’t going to have a very good life here. Seems like immigrants are attracted to cities but they’d be just as well out by Worcester or Springfield. The cost of living in the Boston area is just so high.

I noticed people leaving Boston more often around 2014. People realized they could move to lower cost of living cities and still make a good salary. Plus a lot of people hate winter.

Frankly it’s just more comfortable physically than any other city in the northeast (cleaner, more parks, better positioned) and it already has a ton is immigrants-to them, it’s worth it. And the city begs them to comet basically. They’ll tolerate tighter living conditions than domestic Americans. More or less the same price as NYC. Basically for every 10 immigrants that picks NYC maybe 1 chooses Boston. That makes total sense.

[msRB311]

Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade

Frankly it’s just more comfortable physically than any other city in the northeast (cleaner, more parks, better positioned) and it already has a ton is immigrants-to them, it’s worth it. And the city begs them to comet basically. They’ll tolerate tighter living conditions than domestic Americans. More or less the same price as NYC. Basically for every 9 immigrants that picks NYC maybe 1 chooses Boston. That makes total sense.

Sure, but how do they afford it? By shoving 10 working family members in one space?