2020: (1) Mass. Home Sales Hit 16-Year High and (2) another strong year for Boston condo sales (Somerville: rent, condos)

[porterhouse]

I'm in general agreement. However, there's a lot of space between property that I would call a 'remarkably good value' and one that declines in value.

[sawyer2]

The condo data matches what we saw. We were/are looking to buy additional investment property in B Bay/S End but there were certainly no bargains to be had.

All comes down to your own investment strategy, rationale, and opportunity cost. Our investment time frame is very long - investment income when we retire/hedge against inflation, and then pass the property off to the kids.

I was surprised to see areas like Allston have such a strong year (better than 2019) - lot of student rentals and recent grads, and I would have thought currently experiencing high occupancy.

[massnative71]

Originally Posted by yellowstatus

Interesting that I'm so optimistic compared to others. Over a 15 year time frame, I simply can't think of many scenarios where Cambridge, Back Bay, Brookline, Beacon Hill, Wellesley, Newton real estate decline in nominal dollars. All the while IMO, these are excellent places to live.

If you finance with a fixed rate mortgage, the carrying cost is surprisingly cheap. Granted, prices could very well drop in the short 5 year time frame; I won't pretend to accurately predict the short term.

15+ years yes, that's a big difference from 5 years. If you are a tech bro looking to do your 2-5 years in Boston and then bail to North Carolina once you get your experience, I firmly believe you are better off renting at the moment especially the way rents have been dropping. Same thing if you are an investor looking to flip a condo. Just a bad bet right now...


I realize those aren't all buyers, but they make up a very large segment of the Boston housing market.

[massnative71]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

While I agree, people need housing and cannot sit around indefinitely waiting to see if there’s clean exit from massive central bank intervention and extremely tight inventory. Our lives are terminal.

What people can stop doing is suggesting this exact moment is the perfect time to buy given that we’re still in a global pandemic which has not yet terminated and could cause a massive shift in societal/corporate behavior, meanwhile nearly every asset is approaching or exceeding historic highs. 2009 was a great time to have a bullish thesis on housing, not now. Particularly not in the near term.

Opinions of a dude on an internet forum.

I view real estate as a place to live. Next home I buy will likely be for the long haul (15-20+ years), it will be a matter of going with the best I can comfortably afford regardless of where the market or rates are when that otherwise appropriate time comes. I also acknowledge however, that much of this forum views real estate as an investment tool and I try to give an informed opinion on that as well.

[yellowstatus]

Originally Posted by massnative71

15+ years yes, that's a big difference from 5 years. If you are a tech bro looking to do your 2-5 years in Boston and then bail to North Carolina once you get your experience, I firmly believe you are better off renting at the moment especially the way rents have been dropping. Same thing if you are an investor looking to flip a condo. Just a bad bet right now...


I realize those aren't all buyers, but they make up a very large segment of the Boston housing market.

I don't know of anyone in tech moving to LCOL areas with moribund tech scenes with comp to match. Moving to SF, NYC, and Seattle is far more common. I too would love not to pay 4x national average for comparable space. But many LCOL areas are LCOL for very good reasons.

[massnative71]

Originally Posted by yellowstatus

I don't know of anyone in tech moving to LCOL areas with moribund tech scenes with comp to match. Moving to SF, NYC, and Seattle is far more common. I too would love not to pay 4x national average for comparable space. But many LCOL areas are LCOL for very good reasons.

Talking more mid-cost of living places. Raleigh, Atlanta, Nashville, Kansas City, Columbus, Dallas, Austin, Denver...yes people in tech have been moving to those places in droves. The reason they are in a high cost of living place like Boston, is that's where you often go to start your career. But once you get your foot in the door and gain some pay/experience, other doors open up in more reasonable cities (where they often bring their level of comp with them, that they wouldn't otherwise enjoy had they began their career in one of those "outposts"). Of course the people leaving will be replaced by new grads and the cycle continues...

[yesmaybe]

Originally Posted by yellowstatus

I don't know of anyone in tech moving to LCOL areas with moribund tech scenes with comp to match. Moving to SF, NYC, and Seattle is far more common. I too would love not to pay 4x national average for comparable space. But many LCOL areas are LCOL for very good reasons.

If you could work anywhere...

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by yesmaybe

If you could work anywhere...

The RE bulls seem to be ignoring this possibility. I’ve had a number of long time contacts in the Bay area and Seattle reach out recently stating their employers were easing their on-site expectations and asking if I would be interested in a remote position assuming possible 10-20% travel. Same for my wife, though her focus on instructional design inherently biases remote learning and working.

However, I’m not assuming a permanent change as on-site collaboration is quite valuable in certain industries.

[msRB311]

I was down the cape this weekend and we met a guy who had just moved to the cape from GA. He is in his mid 30s as is his wife. I was thinking that they were transient type cape people (he was wearing work boots) until he told me which house they had just purchased. It's a 1.2 million house. It's close to the beach but 1.2 million would have gone a lot further on the beach in GA, SC or NC. I can't always figure out why people make the real estate decisions that they do but I've seen some odd ones lately and they all seem to be people spending a million or more. I'm just not sure what the cape has to offer year round other than you're close to the beach. I didn't get into details with him but I'm speculating it was an I'm remote now let's move where we want type deal. They could have gotten a much nicer beach house down south with better weather year round.

[id77]

Originally Posted by yellowstatus

Interesting that I'm so optimistic compared to others. Over a 15 year time frame, I simply can't think of many scenarios where Cambridge, Back Bay, Brookline, Beacon Hill, Wellesley, Newton real estate decline in nominal dollars. All the while IMO, these are excellent places to live.

If you finance with a fixed rate mortgage, the carrying cost is surprisingly cheap. Granted, prices could very well drop in the short 5 year time frame; I won't pretend to accurately predict the short term.

FWIW, I'm with you on this one. I bought in Boston during the pandemic and am not looking back. Many of us are targeting the desirable and expensive neighborhoods in Boston aren't doing so for a short commute, and that desirability hasn't changed as a result of WFH. Until similarly unique neighborhoods show up elsewhere (unlikely), it will always retain a value.

There's still a lot of demand in the $1.5-$4 million range in places like BB/SE. I'm not worried.