2020: (1) Mass. Home Sales Hit 16-Year High and (2) another strong year for Boston condo sales (2014, how much)

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by id77

There's still a lot of demand in the $1.5-$4 million range in places like BB/SE. I'm not worried.

Sure, but there may be people who paid comparatively big money in the sketchier parts of Boston to get the easy commute who might not experience that kind of market stability. Particularly when interest rates get back to something more historically normal.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

Sure, but there may be people who paid comparatively big money in the sketchier parts of Boston to get the easy commute who might not experience that kind of market stability. Particularly when interest rates get back to something more historically normal.

Oh, you don’t think a normalized rate and 2-3 day ‘in office’ schedule would be kind to the 980k 3bd/2ba in Somerville which has excellent walking access to ... the 93 overpass, the Haitian Episcopal Church, and Main Street Video (according a recent review, no glory holes folks)?

[msRB311]

And rent has gone down:

https://www.bostonherald.com/2021/01...gu5RiKJN2U0tYA

[GeePee]

This conversation has been brought up in every decade and every downturn. Boston real estate is always a good buy. Don't let the people who sold out to live in Pawtucket with a half acre talk you down. They have since seen their properties skyrocket, even through huge economic downturns.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by GeePee

This conversation has been brought up in every decade and every downturn. Boston real estate is always a good buy. Don't let the people who sold out to live in Pawtucket with a half acre talk you down. They have since seen their properties skyrocket, even through huge economic downturns.

To believe this you’d have to ignore anyone who bought marginal properties in the declining rate environment of the late 80s and sold post S&L crisis in the ‘90s. Those properties took a decade+ to recover their valuations. Of course, those who held long can now claim to be genius investors while ignoring 3 decades of overt central bank intervention.

I’m not claiming prime Boston RE is anything other than relatively safe ‘harbor’, because it is. This said, I think many are willfully ignoring the catalysts which have gotten us here and how markets have already reacted to the most minor Fed increase targets. Was everyone asleep in 2018? Do we really think Boston RE is fully insulated from a rising rate environment where credit lines tighten and equities markets trade flat?

One can claim a “low floor” with relative confidence, but to suggest Boston RE is a “great value” seems like a slightly absurd bull thesis perpetuated by those who stand to benefit most from a continued melt up in equities and Boston RE.

But yes, in a declining market I’ll take the back bay condo over a top end SFH in Woburn.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

To believe this you’d have to ignore anyone who bought marginal properties in the declining rate environment of the late 80s and sold post S&L crisis in the ‘90s. Those properties took a decade+ to recover their valuations. Of course, those who held long can now claim to be genius investors while ignoring 3 decades of overt central bank intervention.

I’m not claiming prime Boston RE is anything other than relatively safe ‘harbor’, because it is. This said, I think many are willfully ignoring the catalysts which have gotten us here and how markets have already reacted to the most minor Fed increase targets. Was everyone asleep in 2018? Do we really thing Boston RE is fully insulated from a rising rate environment where credit lines tighten and equities markets trade flat?

One can claim a “low floor” with relative confidence, but to suggest Boston RE is a “great value” seems like a slightly absurd bull thesis perpetuated by those who stand to benefit most from a continued melt up in equities and Boston RE.

But yes, in a declining market I’ll take the back bay condo over a top end SFH in Woburn.

I was on both sides of that one. I got slaughtered with the property I bought in 1988. I bought low in Winchester in the mid-1990s when things were down 30%.

[sawyer2]

I wouldn't want to be buying one of the new 'luxury' condos in Mattapan/Rozzie/Hyde P etc. for sure in this market

In the ~'08 crash, Chelsea, Dot., Rox. and others like it were the last boats in the rising tide, and fell the hardest and for the longest.

I have always been bullish on Back Bay/S End long term, and own in both, but current pricing certainly is eyewatering. When we bought in ~'09 in B Bay you could still buy a penthouse duplex on Marlborough (albeit needing work) for ~$500/sqft, and it is probably $1,200+/sqft now.

[mdovell]

I really don't see boston coming back from this any time soon. If vaccines were worldwide and access was more universal I'd say something different.

[msRB311]

anytime soon meaning this summer or a year from now?

[masssachoicetts]

It's expensive because if it was cheap like TX or KY everyone would chose the place that's world class.

Boston is the place right now.