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I know department heads of international programs and this has gone on for decades
Harvard and MIT have acceptance rates in the single digits. Other notables are <20%.
In short, there would have to be a massive drop in demand to financially undermine Boston’s better universities. If you look at the universities currently squeezed by the ongoing demographic shift, they don’t share much in common with Boston’s ‘whale’ institutions (tiny endowments, minimal demand, waning relevance, etc.).
Harvard and MIT have acceptance rates in the single digits. Other notables are <20%.
In short, there would have to be a massive drop in demand to financially undermine Boston’s better universities. If you look at the universities currently squeezed by the ongoing demographic shift, they don’t share much in common with Boston’s ‘whale’ institutions (tiny endowments, minimal demand, waning relevance, etc.).
MIT was one of the first major institutions to expand online (MIT courseware) . I'm not saying they'll close. Demand is there but if international students can't come in then what? Again a gap year, another institution, a overseas campus or online are the only options.
We know know the visa applications are down. They can still attend, it will just be online. What's wrong with that As far as I know you don't really need a visa if they are attending classes online.
20 years ago I had arguments on online shopping. Now most of it is online. Businesses can still run but the business plan changes. Academia is a business. I'm not saying that online would replace everything but they have to have that for an option for those that cannot come in. Business plans have to change with the current environment.
I still think people will want to be accepted into the college for hands on experience. However online course platforms like edX and coursera have made it easier for people everywhere to get access to courses they never would have had before. Both those platforms must be exploding right now.
MIT was one of the first major institutions to expand online (MIT courseware) . I'm not saying they'll close. Demand is there but if international students can't come in then what? Again a gap year, another institution, a overseas campus or online are the only options.
We know know the visa applications are down. They can still attend, it will just be online. What's wrong with that As far as I know you don't really need a visa if they are attending classes online.
20 years ago I had arguments on online shopping. Now most of it is online. Businesses can still run but the business plan changes. Academia is a business. I'm not saying that online would replace everything but they have to have that for an option for those that cannot come in. Business plans have to change with the current environment.
Online shopping is a poor analogy, in my opinion. Shopping is largely a solo activity which, depending on the market, can be easily transferred online leveraging delivery services.
You’re not fully transferring what are effectively R&D programs to a full online format. You are willingly ignoring all of the physical resources available on these campuses which are not easily replicated at an individual level.
Of all the imagined possibilities which might pressure Boston RE, declining demand for its universities requires one of the longer timelines to realize. We’re talking a similar timeline as climate change and US global relevance.
Equity market returns, VC inflows, demographic/preference shifts, Fed action (or inaction), dollar movement, isolationist policies, regulatory around biotech, etc. could all have more immediate impacts. Based on current trends, none of those things appear to be an immediate threat.
This isn’t really a ‘bull thesis’, rather it’s more of a ‘safe harbor thesis’. Let us not forget that a global recession, triggered by US real estate, still did not drag down Boston RE. Neither has a global pandemic thus far. It’s tough to be a bear.
Last edited by Shrewsburried; 03-28-2021 at 11:02 AM..
Back in May, I would have said that a dip would definitely happen but so much tinkering, forbearance, and stimiulus bucks has convinced me otherwise. I do think there wil be a leveling off and some locations may see a small decrease in prices but rates will still remain relatively low for awhile.
Anectdotally, people I know who are landlords have had the rent coming in on time since end of summer as more people went back to work. The other thing I have noticed is that more and more people are being called back to work on site at least part of the time. With kids goinf back to school full time and summer programs going back to full/almost full capacity I would guess some employers will be less flexible with remote work. And yes, I do think college student will want to go back to campus for the full college experience. So, I don't think there wil actually be a crash as much as a stall in price increases.
MIT was one of the first major institutions to expand online (MIT courseware) . I'm not saying they'll close. Demand is there but if international students can't come in then what? Again a gap year, another institution, a overseas campus or online are the only options.
MIT Coursware isn't the same as MIT online. It's a program designed to share the coursework but it doesn't convey any sort of degree.
I haven't seen one person reference gasoline prices. If gas goes to $4/gallon does that hurt the suburban commuter, help close to work (even if 3 days a week). Gas prices also impacts home heating costs/etc. In some ways energy prices has more impact on budgets than interest rates, especially in New England.
I guess I was imprecise. I was referring to 30 year fixed. The 10 year treasury has been above 1.6% for the last few weeks and that's usually a good way to see 30 year mortgage interest rate trends. Sub-3% with no points looks to be over. Look at a chart for UMBS 3.0. A 3% yield mortgage backed security from Freddie Mac is now $104.20. After Wall Street takes their cut, I don't see how a lender can offer a sub-3% 30 year fixed without some points.
I actually just read a "rate update" email right before I logged on from a loan officer at a local bank. She was quoting purchase rates under 3% for fixed rate mortgages. She said rates dipped at the end of the week. No points.
Quote:
Originally Posted by massnative71
How is that different from any other bank, that's not "in house"?
Almost every lender will sell your mortgage. Keeping a loan in house is called "portfolio" lending. Mostly local banks and credit unions will write a portfolio loan. Larger banks and "mortgage originators" (lenders that exist solely to write mortgages and offer no other banking functions like Guaranteed Rate or Leader Bank) want no part of this market.
This being said, many online lenders and larger banks (ex. Bank of America) can be a NIGHTMARE to deal with. They're fine when everything goes perfectly right but one small hiccup and you'll regret applying with them. I always advise my clients to get their mortgage from a local lender which could be a small bank or credit union or a locally based mortgage originator.
Quote:
Originally Posted by OtterTrees
Back in May, I would have said that a dip would definitely happen but so much tinkering, forbearance, and stimiulus bucks has convinced me otherwise. I do think there wil be a leveling off and some locations may see a small decrease in prices but rates will still remain relatively low for awhile.
Anectdotally, people I know who are landlords have had the rent coming in on time since end of summer as more people went back to work. The other thing I have noticed is that more and more people are being called back to work on site at least part of the time. With kids goinf back to school full time and summer programs going back to full/almost full capacity I would guess some employers will be less flexible with remote work. And yes, I do think college student will want to go back to campus for the full college experience. So, I don't think there wil actually be a crash as much as a stall in price increases.
What's going on now is clearly quite a bit different than what went on in 2007/2008. One big issue back then was no one had any equity in their homes. You could put 0% down and still buy a house and of course there were "no doc" loans where a lender would just ask "how much do you make?" and whatever you said they just went with that. These things don't happen anymore. So more people have equity in their homes than they did back then. Plus, if you look at the breakdown of what's happening in the economy right now the majority of people who are being hit the hardest are not in the home buying demographic. In the current environment, people who are buying homes are the same people who would be buying homes pre-pandemic and these folks don't seem concerned about job security.
What's going on now is clearly quite a bit different than what went on in 2007/2008. One big issue back then was no one had any equity in their homes. You could put 0% down and still buy a house and of course there were "no doc" loans where a lender would just ask "how much do you make?" and whatever you said they just went with that. These things don't happen anymore.
It was crazy. I had a refi right around then and I basically provided no proof of income/savings. No wonder the house of cards collapsed.
I refi'd last year to just above 2% for a 15 and they put me through the wringer - even though the LTV was very low and we could have just paid off the loan.
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As far as I know you don't really need a visa if they are attending classes online.
