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So now...today (10-27)...all the sudden voters are breaking hard Right, & most of the races Dems led, they are now suddenly behind...seemingly overnight....nearly every close Senate race has some poll saying team Red's up now.
Boloney! The Pubs led all along...for weeks & months. Firsthand reports have been saying so for months, & most believe them more than the media. Canvassers going door to door talking w/ thousands of voters have been saying for weeks that the media's polls are trash. Internal polls have varied widely from propagandists polls.
The DNC's big donors started pulling the plug on Dem funding long ago...another sign that media polls are trash. Those Billionaires are getting the internal poll results. They pulled Crist's funding a month ago, when the corrupt media propagandist polls had DeSantis +1...who would do that? They knew it was really DeSantis +10.
Its past time we start listening to sources OTHER THAN the media to get our information, & quit dismissing all othr sources as anecdotal. Thousands of face to face contacts is less anecdotal than a few corrupted polls.
Now, 11 days out, the media polls must stop lying, or nobody will listen to them next cycle.
The pollsters must come clean over 11-12 days in small increments, to cover their evil deeds.
They can't all of the sudden lerch right by large %'s. They can't go from Oz down 5 to Oz up 5 overnight. So, they do it in smaller increments.
The last poll they report the day before the election is the only one that is real. The rest are voter manipulation.
The Pubs will retake the Senate, and it wont be close. The House will be a massive Red wave, and several Blue seats will flip to Red.
For instance, before the Kansas abortion vote, the polls (right before the vote) showed that those that wished to give the Kansas legislature authority to amend the state Constitution to further restrict abortion were leading by 3 points. I recall being surprised that the percentage was so small (Kansas is a very 'red' state).
Of course, those that were against the measure won by 18 points.
Why?
Back in college, in the 70s, I took a course in Statistical Analysis, which included an examination of how polling was done.
We learned how polling had evolved: in the beginning, Mr. Gallop would literally stop people on the streets and ask them how they planned to vote (1930s). Finding the results less than desirable, Gallop eventually moved on to telephone polling, once most Americans began having landline telephones.
In short, his polling methods improved as more Americans (in the 50s) had landlines. I will ignore the explanation (which is good, for I don't recall) of how he decided to phone those of different races, income status, etc., to get a more diverse demographic.
I guess that polling had its heyday in the 60s, 70s and into the 80s, and perhaps into the 90s.
We then saw the rise of cellular telephones and the internet.
Both were in their infancy into the 90s, with the 'internet' taking off in 1995 or so. Then, we hit 2007, with the introduction of the iPhone.
Both changed the polling landscape.
In 2011, 35 percent of Americans owned a cell phone. Today, it is more like 97 percent, with 85 percent owning a 'smart' phone.
Most Americans that own landlines, with no other phone, is down to some 5 percent. Of those, most are the elderly.
Yet, polling companies still insist on trying to 'average out' polling between landlines, cell phones, and internet polling.
Internet polling is, of course, problematic. Who actually 'votes' on such pop up polls?
Cell phones: I am 67, and I know that I am not alone in refusing calls from unknown numbers. I bet that younger people, whom only own a smart phone, likewise refuse such calls, which would, of course, including pollsters.
Landlines: the last refuge of pollsters. Pollsters like to call those that have been polled before, so the chances are darned high that they will continue to call the elderly whom still have landlines.
So, why was Kansas so wrong? The pollsters can only poll those that answer their calls, or respond to an internet poll. If the young people refuse the cell phone calls, and most people refuse to take part in 'internet' polling, that pretty well leaves the landline people, whom tend to be more conservative.
It is a pretty problem. A polling company, to make money, must be able to 'poll' people, yet most of those willing to be polled have landlines.
Perhaps Mr. Gallop's initial thought, to grab people on the street, will turn out to be the best nowadays.
Political polling has lost any credibility whatsoever. In order to make sense of it you have to understand it as deeply as Legalsea does, which obviously most people don't. It's simply entertainment and clickbait now. I wonder how many times they will have to be wrong before it's understood to be meaningless?
For instance, before the Kansas abortion vote, the polls (right before the vote) showed that those that wished to give the Kansas legislature authority to amend the state Constitution to further restrict abortion were leading by 3 points. I recall being surprised that the percentage was so small (Kansas is a very 'red' state).
Of course, those that were against the measure won by 18 points.
Why?
Back in college, in the 70s, I took a course in Statistical Analysis, which included an examination of how polling was done.
We learned how polling had evolved: in the beginning, Mr. Gallop would literally stop people on the streets and ask them how they planned to vote (1930s). Finding the results less than desirable, Gallop eventually moved on to telephone polling, once most Americans began having landline telephones.
In short, his polling methods improved as more Americans (in the 50s) had landlines. I will ignore the explanation (which is good, for I don't recall) of how he decided to phone those of different races, income status, etc., to get a more diverse demographic.
I guess that polling had its heyday in the 60s, 70s and into the 80s, and perhaps into the 90s.
We then saw the rise of cellular telephones and the internet.
Both were in their infancy into the 90s, with the 'internet' taking off in 1995 or so. Then, we hit 2007, with the introduction of the iPhone.
Both changed the polling landscape.
In 2011, 35 percent of Americans owned a cell phone. Today, it is more like 97 percent, with 85 percent owning a 'smart' phone.
Most Americans that own landlines, with no other phone, is down to some 5 percent. Of those, most are the elderly.
Yet, polling companies still insist on trying to 'average out' polling between landlines, cell phones, and internet polling.
Internet polling is, of course, problematic. Who actually 'votes' on such pop up polls?
Cell phones: I am 67, and I know that I am not alone in refusing calls from unknown numbers. I bet that younger people, whom only own a smart phone, likewise refuse such calls, which would, of course, including pollsters.
Landlines: the last refuge of pollsters. Pollsters like to call those that have been polled before, so the chances are darned high that they will continue to call the elderly whom still have landlines.
So, why was Kansas so wrong? The pollsters can only poll those that answer their calls, or respond to an internet poll. If the young people refuse the cell phone calls, and most people refuse to take part in 'internet' polling, that pretty well leaves the landline people, whom tend to be more conservative.
It is a pretty problem. A polling company, to make money, must be able to 'poll' people, yet most of those willing to be polled have landlines.
Perhaps Mr. Gallop's initial thought, to grab people on the street, will turn out to be the best nowadays.
"Back in college"
Should have learned ow to delete spaces between sentences.
Kentucky abortion issue defeated. What did the polls say again?
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