Billionaire Ken Griffin says Miami could unseat New York as the world's financial center (Miami Beach: houses, neighborhoods)
MiamiMiami-Dade County
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problem is the target audience has to drive right under the turnpike or palmetto..on congested roads.... to get to the parking lot...park, walk, wait, take train, walk, etc
talking all those people into getting out of their AC'd cars and not hitting that entrance ramp....
the stations are not convenient for people coming up from the south...or out west....and that's where the new builds are
You're missing the point and your "target audience" is looking backwards and not at what they are building today moving forward.
There are thousands of new units already built with more under construction at metrorail stations like Douglas and Coconut grove, Civic Center, Dadeland, etc. These people don't have to drive at all. They simply walk 5 min to the station and ride it to Brickell. How is this any different than NY? Outside of the fact that they'll never have to do it in freezing cold weather.
It appears as though you want to extend the public transportation system out to single family homes which makes no sense. We should be building dence urban centers around existing stations and those who the convienence of public transportation will move there which is what is already happening.
I have friends who live in Bloomfield NJ, who work in Manhattan. Because they want the single family home so bad they as you say drive "...on congested roads.... to get to the parking lot...park, walk, wait, take train, walk, etc"
FYI, below is a proposed development at the Dadeland South Metrorail station. So you can live as far south as Dadeland mall, have plenty of shopping, retail, bars, etc all within a 10 min walk of your apartment and still get back and forth to Brickell, City Center, World Center, Merrick Park, etc. all without using a car.
I used to live in DC and got around eveywhere through public transporation. However doing things like getting groceries was a chore. I now enjoy living in the Roads where I can walk to Brickell for many of my entertainment needs but then can use a car to take care of other tasks.
As the cities grows and becomes more congested public transportation will become a larger part of the picture. And to be honest it isn't even that hard to do as the metrorail can server A LOT of people. Simply look at the metro rail map and pick out any stop outside of Brickell. Take the Coconut Grove station for example. If you draw half mile radius around the station that would give you 500 acres. All we have to do is upzone this area which is currently predominately single family homes. To put that in perspectrive you could build ALL of brickell in the space which and they would only be a 7-10 minute walk away from a metrorail station that they could then get to Brickell in 2 stops.
Just one question, gixxer. I now know that you live in the Roads, which is mainly a residential neighborhood 5 min from downtown. While I do like the homes in the Roads, I don't see a majority of them existing in the near future, especially as a lot of high-rise construction starts to encroach across SE 15th Rd.
Once Miami wants to be more ambitious and, let's say, go and attract about 1 million people just to live in the city limits, do you still believe that the Roads will be the same neighborhood in about 20 years? I sure don't, as I can foresee a lot of mid-rises in and around the Roads, with maybe some houses left over. And I can see SW 3rd Ave with nothing but 500 ft mid-rises similar to Park Avenue in NY with an elevated rail line.
I believe if Miami is going to continue to attract people, it's going to have to build not just condos and skyscrapers, but it's also going to have to build co-operatives, mid-rises, and apartment buildings similar to NY. There's no way that Miami will ever beat NY, Chicago, LA, and especially Houston in the population department, but it can beat certain cities in the density department, and Miami can be the most densest city in America, beating even NY sometime in the future.
It may not be the future capital of finance as I mentioned previously, but it can even beat NY in density, as well as other cities such as SF, Boston, and DC!
And again, this comparison to NY in terms of transportation is mostly ideological.
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Most people in Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL drove alone to work, and the average commute time was 29.6 minutes. The average car ownership in Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL was 2 cars per household.
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Most people in New York, NY used public transit to get to work, and the average commute time was 41.4 minutes. The average car ownership in New York, NY was 0 cars per household.
Just one question, gixxer. I now know that you live in the Roads, which is mainly a residential neighborhood 5 min from downtown. While I do like the homes in the Roads, I don't see a majority of them existing in the near future, especially as a lot of high-rise construction starts to encroach across SE 15th Rd.
Once Miami wants to be more ambitious and, let's say, go and attract about 1 million people just to live in the city limits, do you still believe that the Roads will be the same neighborhood in about 20 years? I sure don't, as I can foresee a lot of mid-rises in and around the Roads, with maybe some houses left over. And I can see SW 3rd Ave with nothing but 500 ft mid-rises similar to Park Avenue in NY with an elevated rail line.
I believe if Miami is going to continue to attract people, it's going to have to build not just condos and skyscrapers, but it's also going to have to build co-operatives, mid-rises, and apartment buildings similar to NY. There's no way that Miami will ever beat NY, Chicago, LA, and especially Houston in the population department, but it can beat certain cities in the density department, and Miami can be the most densest city in America, beating even NY sometime in the future.
It may not be the future capital of finance as I mentioned previously, but it can even beat NY in density, as well as other cities such as SF, Boston, and DC!
Elizabeth Plater-Zyberk who helped create the graduate program I graduate from was the architect behind the current Miami21 zoning. She was a heavy proponet of urbanism, hence calling the program MRED+U (urbanism). It had a lot of flaws and was focused on shoving density in the mainly the downtown core. The reality however is that they should've been more focused on the transit corridor. They've gone back and tried to make amendments.
I think a neighborhood like The Roads will actually last a while because we have a lot more low hanging fruit to use over the next few decades, and The Roads specifically we probably always be here unless we actually become Manhattan with buildings wall to wall.
The first step will be taking advantage of the existing high density locations near metrorail stations. In the code now they put a lot of restrictions on locations that are withing 500 ft of single family homes. As we beocme more and more unaffordable the will worry less about pissing of homeowners close to these stations and loosen restrictions. Developrs will start buying land right on the periphery of these locations and getting it upzoned to higher density.
Take a look at Civic Center and Santa Clara stations on the map. You have Jackson Memorial which is a huge employer. This area is transforming into a health district and there will be tons of development there.
Once we exhaust all these locations then maybe neighborhoods like The Roads. But by then I think you are talking about 50+ years. Look at my previous example. We could essentially build a Brickell's worth of development at each metrorail stop. It took Brickell 20 years to develop. So we've got a good 100+ years of development with that alone.
The one Metrorail station that seems different is Vizcaya. Its surrounded by mostly single family homes. That one stop will likely staty like that forever. So I think The Roads specifically will eventually end up being ultra luxury houses for the rich.
But I agree with you that Coral Way (3rd Ave) will be all midrises. I don't see the elevated rail line however just a beefed up version of the trolley bus line that is there now. Most the people living there will be rich and wont need public transit.
If you look at the neighborhood now tear downs are at $1M with existing homes between $1M - $2M. They've already started building newer homes which are reaching the upper $3M range and a few flirting with $4M as they build them larger. I would look at it the same way as Historic South Miami Ave (which is also technically still The Roads by street name). There you have highrises east of Brickell on the water, midrises west of Brickell and then single family homes which are now sellng for $6M.
This is a big reason I'm a proponent of owning in Miami. Most of the young people I see would rather rent in cool locations rather than own in the rougher areas. It's abudantly clearl in the coming future the homes in even the rougher areas are going to become increasingly more valuable as there simply just isn't enough of them to go around.
I was thinking traffic congestion....getting some of those cars off the road
The traffic never goes away, it's what justifies the inconvience of using public transportation. Think of it like this, if the traffic went away then people would just move back to the suburbs as they could easily drive again. People don't actually use public transportation because they want to like some of the idealogues suggest. They use it because its easier than the alternative. Which is why most pro public transit people hate it when you want to make driving easier.
Take a look at NY, its EXTREMELY congested. They are now moving toward creating "Congestion Pricing" where they charge different amounts for when you enter the city. The idea being if they increase the price extremely high (were talkin upwards of $20 a day) just to enter the city, it will force people to use the public transit that is supposedly so awesome.
Elizabeth Plater-Zyberk who helped create the graduate program I graduate from was the architect behind the current Miami21 zoning. She was a heavy proponet of urbanism, hence calling the program MRED+U (urbanism). It had a lot of flaws and was focused on shoving density in the mainly the downtown core. The reality however is that they should've been more focused on the transit corridor. They've gone back and tried to make amendments.
I think a neighborhood like The Roads will actually last a while because we have a lot more low hanging fruit to use over the next few decades, and The Roads specifically we probably always be here unless we actually become Manhattan with buildings wall to wall.
The Roads my not be all mid rise, but I can see a change once Downtown Miami is mostly built out. The same can be said for East Little Havana between the Miami River all the way until 12th Ave. Most of those single family homes and the smaller apartment buildings may be replaced by multifamily dwellings or mid rises with a few high rises closer to downtown. Remember Brickell was mainly low rise and some mid rises and even mansions before the skyscraper boom began in the 1980's and exploded in the mid-2000's.
I'm not saying that all thigh and mid rises should be placed in downtown alone, as I believe that density should be spread evenly in other parts of the city, which is why I'm a huge proponent of expanding the Metrorail system to Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Beach, Doral, University Park, and even as far as Zoo Miami and Southland. I believe that the Metrorail will eventually be a major asset to Miami the way the subway is the NY, the T to Boston, the Metro to DC, and the El is in Chicago.
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Originally Posted by gixxer1000
The first step will be taking advantage of the existing high density locations near metrorail stations. In the code now they put a lot of restrictions on locations that are withing 500 ft of single family homes. As we beocme more and more unaffordable the will worry less about pissing of homeowners close to these stations and loosen restrictions. Developrs will start buying land right on the periphery of these locations and getting it upzoned to higher density.
Take a look at Civic Center and Santa Clara stations on the map. You have Jackson Memorial which is a huge employer. This area is transforming into a health district and there will be tons of development there.
Once we exhaust all these locations then maybe neighborhoods like The Roads. But by then I think you are talking about 50+ years. Look at my previous example. We could essentially build a Brickell's worth of development at each metrorail stop. It took Brickell 20 years to develop. So we've got a good 100+ years of development with that alone.
I'm mentioned the Roads (and South Brickell) because of the proximity to Downtown. I don't believe every house will be flattened in favor for a lot of high rises, but I believe that the Roads may not look the same after 20 years down the line. Ditto for South Brickell, as it will look comparably similar to Edgewater. A lot of suburbs like Sweetwater, West Miami and University Park are dense already by American standards, and where Miami goes, some of those suburbs are going to go as well in the form of higher density.
Hialeah, although it looks much more suburban than Miami, is a heavily dense city which hasn't had growth for about 20 years. It's starting to build some multifamily and apartment buildings, but I wouldn't be surprised if Hialeah even had some skyscrapers in 20-30 years, mainly around the Hialeah Park and Downtown areas, especially since the flight paths to MIA doesn't pass through Downtown Hialeah and it would be pretty cool if that were to happen, as I believe that it's only a matter of time before Hialeah once again sees some growth in it's population, whether it's coming from the Cuban or non-Cuban Latinos, or some other group (Filipinos?), but a smaller skyline in Hialeah is a pretty good possibility.
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Originally Posted by gixxer1000
The one Metrorail station that seems different is Vizcaya. Its surrounded by mostly single family homes. That one stop will likely staty like that forever. So I think The Roads specifically will eventually end up being ultra luxury houses for the rich.
I believe Venetian and Fisher islands will see the ultra luxury homes closest to downtown. A lot of upper middle class people used to live in Bed-Stuy, Harlem, the South Side between Roosevelt Rd and 55th St in Chicago, Strawberry Mansion in Philadelphia, and Roxbury in Boston. Those areas turned into ghettos since the middle class moved out to suburbs such as the Main Line, Long Island, New Jersey, Middlesex County MA, and Lake County, IL. However in the case of Miami, I'm pretty sure the middle class and the wealthy won't mind moving out of the Roads into more secluded areas of Miami-Dade and those same houses gets replaced by condos, mid-rises, and apartment buildings. Not all, but many, especially if it's close to a lucrative area like Downtown and Brickell.
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Originally Posted by gixxer1000
But I agree with you that Coral Way (3rd Ave) will be all midrises. I don't see the elevated rail line however just a beefed up version of the trolley bus line that is there now. Most the people living there will be rich and wont need public transit.
I've said that there needs to be a West extension from Gov't Center to Doral and FIU on one of my posts, but a west extension can actually give rail service to those parts of Miami-Dade. Also, Coral Way is the way to Coral Gables. I personally like Coral Way and would've wished that Miami would've invested in subways, but the constant flooding and the aquifer does make it a challenge and during the early 80's, I'm assuming that there wasn't really the technology to perform such a feat, plus building above ground is a lot cheaper than either digging or boring below ground, so the powers that be at the time decided to build a mass transit system at the time above ground. I'm thinking that Coral Gables will eventually embrace mass transit, but it depends on what the people want, but overall, mass transit needs to be made a huge priority if the city of Miami is going to improve and progress as a major city.
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Originally Posted by gixxer1000
If you look at the neighborhood now tear downs are at $1M with existing homes between $1M - $2M. They've already started building newer homes which are reaching the upper $3M range and a few flirting with $4M as they build them larger. I would look at it the same way as Historic South Miami Ave (which is also technically still The Roads by street name). There you have highrises east of Brickell on the water, midrises west of Brickell and then single family homes which are now sellng for $6M.
This is a big reason I'm a proponent of owning in Miami. Most of the young people I see would rather rent in cool locations rather than own in the rougher areas. It's abundantly clearl in the coming future the homes in even the rougher areas are going to become increasingly more valuable as there simply just isn't enough of them to go around.
A lot of those under 30 don't own as much as older folks unless they come from a silver spoon background. Not too many people are going to go to Liberty City, Little Haiti, or much of Little Havana unless they're Black American, Haitian, or Cuban, respectively. Personally, while I don't mind some outsiders to live in those places, I'd hate to see those ethnic enclaves fully gentrified like Harlem, Bed-Stuy, and the Fillmore in SF. Those groups helped mold the image of Miami for better or worse and Miami would become a pretty stale city if those groups were forced out and another foreign group.
There's going to be a time when Cubans may be only 20-25% of the city and Miami will still become a Latino majority city of maybe 50-60%, as newer groups (Filipinos, Vietnamese, Africans, Arabs, etc.) will either establish enclaves either within Miami or just outside of it. I wouldn't be surprised to see Filipinos becoming a bigger presence in Miami, especially in the Civic Center and Allapattah, where the hospitals are located. I can foresee Filipinos being the largest Asian group over traditional Asian groups like the Chinese and Indians due to Miami's similar tropical climate to the Phillipines and the similar Spanish culture that both Cuba and the Phillipines had endured prior to their independence back in 1989 during the Spanish American War. I'm also pretty sure that Filipinos will be the largest Asian group in FL over Indians and the Chinese just because of those Spanish ties.
You don't seem to understand the process. They aren't forcing migrants on buses, they are giving them the option. The cities they are paying for buses to (NY, Chicago, DC) are sanctuary cities. The migrants are accepting bus rides to cities that are the most welcoming. NY has a "right to shelter" law which while sounds insane says everyone (regardless of wheter you are a resident or not) is entitled to shelter. NY is currently offereing migrants plane tickets out of NY. If NY wanted to, they could round up all the migrants and force them into the streets in conditions so terrible that they would accept a bus ride to a city that isn't willing to be as cruel. But politically they don't have the will to do it.
FYI, I work in real estate development build said buildings. Your laypersons view of the situation sounds as someone extremely pessemistic. The exact same thing could be said of NY 100 years ago. The development of these buildings generates millions of dollars in impact fees to addres the burden of new developments. Could that money be mismaged? Sure. But again there is already a mechanism in place to handle the burden the development adds to the system.
I actually agree with some of this. But again the gravitas you are speaking of in NY comes from a high concentration of people being located in a dense area. So again, the only thing separating Miami from NY is people. And clearly people can move.
As someone who grew up in the Midwest I see A LOT of problems with Miami. I currently split time between the Midwest and Miami and personally prefer to raise my family in the Midwest. And i've been here for about 15 years so I doubt I fall in the recently moved here camp.
With that said it seems pretty hard to deny that a city like Miami seems to be the futre of the US and cities like NY seem to be the past. I actually see it as the opposite. The next 5 - 10 years will be pretty average, but as the base builds the story of Miami gets more and more compelling. In 50 years (hopefully I'm still here) Miami will be vastly different and NY will be luck if its the same.
People always write that NY is the "past," yet The City continually finds a way to reinvent itself and remain relevant. A lot of the new migrant labor is being absorbed and the city is still functioning - pretty impressive after taking in over 100K folks.
The Roads my not be all mid rise, but I can see a change once Downtown Miami is mostly built out. The same can be said for East Little Havana between the Miami River all the way until 12th Ave. Most of those single family homes and the smaller apartment buildings may be replaced by multifamily dwellings or mid rises with a few high rises closer to downtown. Remember Brickell was mainly low rise and some mid rises and even mansions before the skyscraper boom began in the 1980's and exploded in the mid-2000's.
I'm not saying that all thigh and mid rises should be placed in downtown alone, as I believe that density should be spread evenly in other parts of the city, which is why I'm a huge proponent of expanding the Metrorail system to Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Beach, Doral, University Park, and even as far as Zoo Miami and Southland. I believe that the Metrorail will eventually be a major asset to Miami the way the subway is the NY, the T to Boston, the Metro to DC, and the El is in Chicago.
I'm mentioned the Roads (and South Brickell) because of the proximity to Downtown. I don't believe every house will be flattened in favor for a lot of high rises, but I believe that the Roads may not look the same after 20 years down the line. Ditto for South Brickell, as it will look comparably similar to Edgewater. A lot of suburbs like Sweetwater, West Miami and University Park are dense already by American standards, and where Miami goes, some of those suburbs are going to go as well in the form of higher density.
The issue is the zoning code. Along coral way in The Roads its rated for midrise. However everything else is zoned for single family homes. These homes are already being built for almost $4M. There isn't going to be enough political capital to rezone the lots anytime soon.
Meanwhile most of the single family homes close to existing stations aren't as high end and there is already a political movement to appease the transit folks and rezone these locations to higher density. As I've mention as this is happening there is so much room for develoment that it would take decades to exhaust these locations so luxury inner city neighborhoods like The Roads, Buena Vista, etc aren't going high density in our lifetimes.
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Originally Posted by wanderer34
I believe Venetian and Fisher islands will see the ultra luxury homes closest to downtown. A lot of upper middle class people used to live in Bed-Stuy, Harlem, the South Side between Roosevelt Rd and 55th St in Chicago, Strawberry Mansion in Philadelphia, and Roxbury in Boston. Those areas turned into ghettos since the middle class moved out to suburbs such as the Main Line, Long Island, New Jersey, Middlesex County MA, and Lake County, IL. However in the case of Miami, I'm pretty sure the middle class and the wealthy won't mind moving out of the Roads into more secluded areas of Miami-Dade and those same houses gets replaced by condos, mid-rises, and apartment buildings. Not all, but many, especially if it's close to a lucrative area like Downtown and Brickell.
Again, this is about zoning. We're already at a shortage of single family homes and its only going to get worse. They aren't going to rezone single family lots when we have enough lots zoned for high rise to last us 100+ years.
The only reason they are even making the current changes to the code is encourage transit oriented develoment which utilizes our existing rail system.
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Originally Posted by wanderer34
I've said that there needs to be a West extension from Gov't Center to Doral and FIU on one of my posts, but a west extension can actually give rail service to those parts of Miami-Dade. Also, Coral Way is the way to Coral Gables. I personally like Coral Way and would've wished that Miami would've invested in subways, but the constant flooding and the aquifer does make it a challenge and during the early 80's, I'm assuming that there wasn't really the technology to perform such a feat, plus building above ground is a lot cheaper than either digging or boring below ground, so the powers that be at the time decided to build a mass transit system at the time above ground. I'm thinking that Coral Gables will eventually embrace mass transit, but it depends on what the people want, but overall, mass transit needs to be made a huge priority if the city of Miami is going to improve and progress as a major city.
There isn't much need to expand the rail system currently. We should be focused on increasing developments near existing rail stations. Once we are on track to exhaust all those locations then we should be looking to expand.
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Originally Posted by wanderer34
A lot of those under 30 don't own as much as older folks unless they come from a silver spoon background. Not too many people are going to go to Liberty City, Little Haiti, or much of Little Havana unless they're Black American, Haitian, or Cuban, respectively. Personally, while I don't mind some outsiders to live in those places, I'd hate to see those ethnic enclaves fully gentrified like Harlem, Bed-Stuy, and the Fillmore in SF. Those groups helped mold the image of Miami for better or worse and Miami would become a pretty stale city if those groups were forced out and another foreign group.
There's going to be a time when Cubans may be only 20-25% of the city and Miami will still become a Latino majority city of maybe 50-60%, as newer groups (Filipinos, Vietnamese, Africans, Arabs, etc.) will either establish enclaves either within Miami or just outside of it. I wouldn't be surprised to see Filipinos becoming a bigger presence in Miami, especially in the Civic Center and Allapattah, where the hospitals are located. I can foresee Filipinos being the largest Asian group over traditional Asian groups like the Chinese and Indians due to Miami's similar tropical climate to the Phillipines and the similar Spanish culture that both Cuba and the Phillipines had endured prior to their independence back in 1989 during the Spanish American War. I'm also pretty sure that Filipinos will be the largest Asian group in FL over Indians and the Chinese just because of those Spanish ties.
"While you personally don't mind some outsiders to live in those places", lol. People have the right to live wherever they want to live.
People always write that NY is the "past," yet The City continually finds a way to reinvent itself and remain relevant. A lot of the new migrant labor is being absorbed and the city is still functioning - pretty impressive after taking in over 100K folks.
We'll I guess it depends on what your definition of writing NY off is. I don't think I or Ken Grffin whose quoted in the article which this thread is about is saying NY is going to disappear off of the face of the earth. We are just saying that the financial industry may choose to be based out of Miami instead of NY in 50 years.
As far as taking in 100k folks I don't see how you think thats impressive when they haven paid for it yet. NY is now cutting services like sanitation, education and the police. Let's see the ramifications of those budget cuts before we talk about it being impressive.
I can qualify for a $200k car loan. I guess some people might think its impressive if I park that car in my driveway. However my wife isn't going to appreciate losing all the things I will have to cut out of our budget to afford the payments.
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