So, how bad has this winter been compared to "normal"? (Minneapolis: new home, water heater)

[Yosh01]

The OP should take heart that all of the horrible weather, the power shortages, heavy snowfalls, broken trees, multi-car pileups, all the things on the nightly news, are not affecting Minnesota. It has been cold, but not debilitating as in much of the country. The kind of winter chaos reported on the nightly news is rarely seen in Minnesota.

[Unsettomati]

Originally Posted by northsub

For what it's worth, at the MSP airport there have been 25 streaks of 11+ consecutive negative-low days since 1891 with 2 of them occurring this year! This is the only year with 2 such streaks, although one could argue the 36 day streak in 1936 should count as well.

Well, while it's true that there were no such streaks recorded at MSP in the 1890s or the 1900s or the 1910s or the 1920s, this is because there was no MSP until the early 1920s and it did not become a primary weather until 1938 (I can find no climate data data all for MSP from before April 1938). So the time frame for those 25 streaks of cold weather is a span of about 75 years, not 120+ years.

The winter of 2013-2014 has definitely been anomalous, but the degree to which it stands out compared to previous winters is distorted by the mild 15 years immediately preceding this one.

[Globe199]

Unfortunately the warm-up that was discussed for next week is looking very wimpy.



And the long-term GFS, which admittedly is almost worthless, is showing nothing even approaching 30 thru 2/22.

[Ghengis]

Originally Posted by Globe199

Unfortunately the warm-up that was discussed for next week is looking very wimpy.



And the long-term GFS, which admittedly is almost worthless, is showing nothing even approaching 30 thru 2/22.

Accuweather is showing 40 - 43 for the 17th & 18th

Weather in Minneapolis - AccuWeather Forecast for MN 55415

[csassie]

This the worst winter we've had in probably 30 years -- you know it's bad when they close the schools 6 times, we usually do not close schools and if we do, it's only once, not 6 times! If you do move here, make sure you have plenty of cold weather gear -- very warm coat, hat, gloves, scarf, boots and I even suggest snow pants (especially if you take the bus).

[Globe199]

Originally Posted by Ghengis

Accuweather is showing 40 - 43 for the 17th & 18th

Weather in Minneapolis - AccuWeather Forecast for MN 55415

Couple issues. Number one, anything beyond ten days, climatology is more accurate. The average high for 2/17 is 30. My money's on 30 rather than 40.

Second, I'll have to take your word for what AccuWeather says. I never use their service after their legendary association with Frothy Santorum and his efforts to knee-cap the NWS.

"Let's privatize the weather!" said no sane person ever.

[Kamsack]

Originally Posted by Globe199

Couple issues. Number one, anything beyond ten days, climatology is more accurate. The average high for 2/17 is 30. My money's on 30 rather than 40.

Second, I'll have to take your word for what AccuWeather says. I never use their service after their legendary association with Frothy Santorum and his efforts to knee-cap the NWS.

"Let's privatize the weather!" said no sane person ever.

Agree...many sites that post temps beyond day 7 is usually using the GFS model or some other more in-house model developed at their company (such as Accu-Weather, etc). Yep good for maybe trends...but in terms of accuracy not so much. As for trends yes there is going to be a bit more zonal flow developing and thus not such unusual cold....but at this point going any higher than normal would be tough to go against.

Dan

[Kamsack]

Originally Posted by Globe199

Unfortunately the warm-up that was discussed for next week is looking very wimpy.



And the long-term GFS, which admittedly is almost worthless, is showing nothing even approaching 30 thru 2/22.

One thing we have noticed at NWS Grand Forks (and other offices) is that the GFS temperature guidance for some reason has been just horrible....almost useless....too cold on most occasions.

[northsub]

Originally Posted by Unsettomati

Well, while it's true that there were no such streaks recorded at MSP in the 1890s or the 1900s or the 1910s or the 1920s, this is because there was no MSP until the early 1920s and it did not become a primary weather until 1938 (I can find no climate data data all for MSP from before April 1938). So the time frame for those 25 streaks of cold weather is a span of about 75 years, not 120+ years.

The winter of 2013-2014 has definitely been anomalous, but the degree to which it stands out compared to previous winters is distorted by the mild 15 years immediately preceding this one.

Maybe the data is not for MSP. I downloaded the data I am using some time ago and don't know exactly where it is from. I'm guessing it was here: Minneapolis/St. Paul Metro Area Climate Page

So, maybe it's for "STATION: MINNEAPOLIS/ST PAUL, MN" instead of MSP. I'm going to assume that the exact location in the metro they are using isn't really that big of a factor here.

If you only go back to 1938 there have been 12 streaks of 11+ days with a negative low (2 of which are this winter).

[Globe199]

Originally Posted by DaninEGF

One thing we have noticed at NWS Grand Forks (and other offices) is that the GFS temperature guidance for some reason has been just horrible....almost useless....too cold on most occasions.

Not just useless. I read anecdotal evidence last winter that the 384-hr GFS can affect natural gas futures if the predicted temperature is very cold. Think about that for a moment. Here you have a prediction model that is often laughably inaccurate, but it can affect the price of heating.

There has been some local commentary about how this winter doesn't compare to the brutality of the two bad winters we had in the late 70s. I find this misleading. The thing to remember is that those winters were highly anomalous.