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Old 10-31-2020, 03:43 PM
 
495 posts, read 370,113 times
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Does anyone think NJ might be closer than 2016?

Personally never thought it could be... but.... look at the returns so far

35% GOP
55% DEM
10 % Independent

There will be some crossover votes from Dem---> GOP and opposite, and independents will break also...

South Jersey is trending GOP based on voter registrations

Trump has more donors from Paterson than Biden

In 2004 (46%) Bush did better than 2000 (40%)

Could we see 43% for Trump in NJ this time? He got 41% in 2016?

Obviously this VBM is a completely new factor to take into consideration... but Trump 2020>2016???

It could be lockdowns... backlash against Murphy... economic reasons... more latino support... online colleges?

Last edited by astrocytoma; 10-31-2020 at 04:10 PM..
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Old 10-31-2020, 08:11 PM
 
Location: Elizabeth, NJ
1,146 posts, read 861,000 times
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Either way, I doubt we would know the winner on Election Day night. We may not know for another couple of weeks by the time everything is counted.
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Old 10-31-2020, 09:14 PM
 
Location: NYC
20,550 posts, read 17,710,630 times
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NJ is not going GOP, it hasn't voted for a GOP President since Reagan. That was a much different times.

It will be much closer than 2016 which means Biden doesn't stand a chance nationally. No matter what the BS polls suggests that Biden is leading. Nobody like me would tell the pollsters who I'm voting for. The people who says so are openly Trump haters.

Biden has to be the worst candidate we've seen in the last 40 years I think. Some states I think it will be such a blow out that the media and the tech companies can't comprehend.

I don't know any Democrat that has something nice or positive to compliment about Biden. They're just voting against Trump, that isn't gonna win the election.

There are double the amount of black and latinos that will vote for Trump this time than before. If Trump keeps his 68% white male and adds more minority support and women. It's gonna be a landslide.

Also, there's more than enough Biden doubters. He's 78 yrs old, senile. Barely could make a good speech without a huge gaffe. Like that big one he said he's running for the VP of the US. Very good indeed.
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Old 10-31-2020, 09:48 PM
 
Location: Elsewhere
88,588 posts, read 84,818,250 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vision33r View Post
NJ is not going GOP, it hasn't voted for a GOP President since Reagan. That was a much different times.

It will be much closer than 2016 which means Biden doesn't stand a chance nationally. No matter what the BS polls suggests that Biden is leading. Nobody like me would tell the pollsters who I'm voting for. The people who says so are openly Trump haters.

Biden has to be the worst candidate we've seen in the last 40 years I think. Some states I think it will be such a blow out that the media and the tech companies can't comprehend.

I don't know any Democrat that has something nice or positive to compliment about Biden. They're just voting against Trump, that isn't gonna win the election.

There are double the amount of black and latinos that will vote for Trump this time than before. If Trump keeps his 68% white male and adds more minority support and women. It's gonna be a landslide.

Also, there's more than enough Biden doubters. He's 78 yrs old, senile. Barely could make a good speech without a huge gaffe. Like that big one he said he's running for the VP of the US. Very good indeed.
Doesn't it really say something when so many people are willing to vote for a man who is possibly developing dementia just to get the incumbent out?
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Old 10-31-2020, 10:39 PM
 
Location: Earth
7,643 posts, read 6,481,808 times
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I think the election is going to be very close. The riots did not help dems and the trump dropped the ball on pandemic.


Latinos are actually very religiously conservative and patriarchal. I can see the GOP using that as base in the future. I was surprised when really dark skinned mexicans were MAGA in the southwest. THe leader of the proud boys is actually afro-cuban.



Only a moderate GOP without the social restrictions of abortion and those that actually support infrastructure can win the northeast.


Guandino only lost because of MAGA and CHristie. GOP is dead in nYC because of MAGA unless deblasio drives it into the ground even more. Bloomberg and nutter gains in NYC and philly are basically erased.
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Old 10-31-2020, 10:40 PM
 
10,181 posts, read 10,262,186 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mightyqueen801 View Post
Doesn't it really say something when so many people are willing to vote for a man who is possibly developing dementia just to get the incumbent out?
No.

Not in NJ.

Can't fix stupid.
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Old 10-31-2020, 10:54 PM
 
Location: Somerset County, NJ
34 posts, read 39,011 times
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Looking at the republican statistics and stating that Trump is gonna be closer this election than last is assuming that all voters registered as Republicans are voting for Trump. I know multiple registered Republicans who are not voting for Trump this election. However the plural of anecdote is not data, but I do think it's a fallacy to assume more Republican votes equates to more Trump votes.
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Old 11-01-2020, 01:08 AM
 
10,483 posts, read 7,005,412 times
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I think Trump will surely have more votes in 2020 in NJ over 2016 and if he does win it, I wouldnt be that shocked because:

Trump has a 96% approval rating in the Republican Party, which is the highest of any candidate of any party since the polls have been taken. We are living in a time where there never has been this much enthusiasm for a President in our lifetimes.

Being that Trump hasnt lost 2016 voters, he's made strides with the African American Communities. Also, people are tired of Murphy and his Czar like attitude with Corona.

The question is will the combination of new voters, and the enthusiasm would be enough to make NJ red? We wont know until the election but its interesting to know that people realize the polls arent accurate at all.
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Old 11-01-2020, 03:31 AM
 
1,069 posts, read 1,254,914 times
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I think Trump is going to be absolutely destroyed in NJ this time around. Last election he just called us coastal elites and campaigned like a jerk. Now we've had four years to watch him campaign in office while gleefully canceling SALT and Gateway (which actually impact our lives) and badly mismanaging the pandemic. He lost what he had of the suburbs and suburban women from 2016-2020.
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Old 11-01-2020, 07:15 AM
 
3,971 posts, read 4,041,647 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by njrebel1978 View Post
Either way, I doubt we would know the winner on Election Day night. We may not know for another couple of weeks by the time everything is counted.
Ugh, make room for Nancy.
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