Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
those numbers are short term. once covid passes, it will just be a distant memory very quickly. it helped keep some people from moving in and it expedited the movement of some people out but i think it will quickly return to the previous trend.
Exactly. There's been explosive growth in urban areas all over the country. In Manhattan there's residential areas that were completely office-only just 2 decades ago. Covid is going to force change for sure, but these movements are a fluid thing as you suggest.
Exactly. There's been explosive growth in urban areas all over the country. In Manhattan there's residential areas that were completely office-only just 2 decades ago. Covid is going to force change for sure, but these movements are a fluid thing as you suggest.
The new dimension is elected officials who fail to address criminality and destruction of private property. Looters and rioters used to be subject to being shot on sight. Now we ask them how they are “feeling” and how we may address their “grievances”. The solution to which usually involves more and more confiscation and redistribution of private wealth. Especially if they can add the grievances and gripes of generations of people who have been dead and buried for 300 years or more. If I can’t trust my elected officials to get rid of criminals, the I’d be a bit insane to live within the jurisdictions they control. And so we see a new migration pattern developing. It’s not conjecture at this point. Ask any real estate agent in the nice quiet suburbs of northern NJ. Our buyers are largely escapees from the insanity of New York and Philadelphia.
Short memory won’t change this because the political insanity and appeasement of criminals is now ongoing business as the new usual. You can’t forget what continues to occur.
I think Millennials have finally embraced suburban living, but conditionally. $1,000,000+ homes will definitely sell quickly in the popular suburbs that we see people ask about all the time here on City-Data (Montclair, Westfield, Summit, Millburn, Ridgewood, etc.) but will sit for a long time in suburbs/exurbs far from everything like Old Tappan, Mendham or Sparta. I bet the home the OP is talking about is in a town like these. I am one of the few Millennials who could care less about walkable towns. After living my entire life in Northeastern NJ, moving to a semi-rural town with houses on 1 acre lots and no sidewalks sounds like a dream.
Maybe these towns have a chance if WFH really becomes a permanent thing, but I’m not sure. I already know people who companies want them to return ASAP due a decline of productivity or salaries being frozen or new hires getting less pay to accommodate for the WFH. I am curious to see how this all plays out.
The future of NJ real estate? What exactly does that mean? To live here, lifestyle, standard of living, etc.? As an investment, ROR, etc.? Your personal residence? An investment property? Commercial? Residential?
All that aside, people can say NJ stinks, people are leaving in a mass exodus, in record numbers, and so on and so on. I don't see that being true. If in fact the adult population of NJ is declining, in my opinion, it is more due to demographics -- the traditionalists or silent generation, baby-boomers, Gen X, Y, Z/iGen, etc. On the other hand, people can say there is a mass exodus from NYC and NJ real estate is going crazy...and the reality is...that is not the case either. As far as real estate, people look at what their house is, what their neighbor's house sold for, what 3 houses on my block did, sure, that's great...but that's not the overall market.
It is no different when someone says how did the stock market do today...and almost everyone looks at the Dow Jones! Well, the Dow Jones is NOT reflective of the overall stock market! The Dow Jones is simply an index that measures the stock price/performance of 30 large companies. Period. While it may be the most commonly followed equity index, many qualified, educated, etc., professionals consider the Dow Jones to be a very inadequate and fallacious representation of the overall US equity/stock market...especially compared to broader market indices...like the S&P 500 the Russell 3000.
The future of NJ real estate? What exactly does that mean? To live here, lifestyle, standard of living, etc.? As an investment, ROR, etc.? Your personal residence? An investment property? Commercial? Residential?
All that aside, people can say NJ stinks, people are leaving in a mass exodus, in record numbers, and so on and so on. I don't see that being true. If in fact the adult population of NJ is declining, in my opinion, it is more due to demographics -- the traditionalists or silent generation, baby-boomers, Gen X, Y, Z/iGen, etc. On the other hand, people can say there is a mass exodus from NYC and NJ real estate is going crazy...and the reality is...that is not the case either. As far as real estate, people look at what their house is, what their neighbor's house sold for, what 3 houses on my block did, sure, that's great...but that's not the overall market.
It is no different when someone says how did the stock market do today...and almost everyone looks at the Dow Jones! Well, the Dow Jones is NOT reflective of the overall stock market! The Dow Jones is simply an index that measures the stock price/performance of 30 large companies. Period. While it may be the most commonly followed equity index, many qualified, educated, etc., professionals consider the Dow Jones to be a very inadequate and fallacious representation of the overall US equity/stock market...especially compared to broader market indices...like the S&P 500 or the Russell 3000.
That said, NJ real estate is fine. Is it going to be the "hottest" growing or appreciating marketplace in the US? No, it won't be. But it can't be either, again due to demographics, economics, tax landscape, and so on. Does that mean if you are buying a house in NJ, it is a good investment? Well, that depends. Over how many years? In what price range(s)? If you bought in the 80's, or the 90's, which were very different times -- how did you do over 10 or 20 years? Well, in certain areas you could have done very well. In others, not so much. But that's if you were then going to sell. So, if you were going to sell, and move from NJ, let's say in 2008, well, what did that look like? Well, where and when did you buy, and in what price range? In certain areas, and certain price ranges, you were in trouble. Others, not so much.
Remember, the real estate marketplace is not about opinion, hype, propaganda, etc. It is about supply and demand.
i dont really expect the current shift away from cities to last. i think there is a larger shift away from nyc and NJ to lower cost areas but that is a different matter. for whatever reason, people seem to like living in cities and i dont think that has changed.
I think the internet and sites like Zillow have turned a lot of the better “low cost areas” that used to be out there into medium cost areas. Median home price in the US hit a low of $171,000 in May 2011. It’s currently at $320,000. Low key areas like Columbus, Ohio and Des Moines, Iowa have become real estate hit spots.
I get the tax side of things, especially for business, but dollar to dollar NJ home prices are not too bad.
If you bought in the 80's, or the 90's, which were very different times -- how did you do over 10 or 20 years? Well, in certain areas you could have done very well.
Remember, the real estate marketplace is not about opinion, hype, propaganda, etc. It is about supply and demand.
+1
I bought my house in Central NJ in 1996, and--based on comps--I could now sell it for more than double the purchase price. However, that is just an academic exercise, as I have no plans to sell it or to leave NJ. I didn't buy it as an investment, but--all the same--it has turned out well in terms of its value.
There is another aspect involved in long-term real estate investing, namely "vision".
In the early '70s, my brother and I came very close to buying a Hoboken brownstone for ~$24k. At the last minute, we pulled the plug because we both concluded--incorrectly--that "nobody would ever want to move to the run-down dump of a town" that Hoboken represented in those days. That same building would now sell for at least $1 million.
Those who can look at a currently undesirable area and have the vision that it will... someday... become highly desirable can reap huge profits. Unfortunately, my brother and I lacked that vision.
I'm not sure about that anymore. Take oil for instance: plenty of supply, low demand, yet we're still paying over $2 /gallon.
Based on historical inflation, ~$2/gallon is right in line with the price of gas back in "the good old days" of... let's say... 1970. Back then, gas was selling for about .28 per gallon. When you apply historical inflation to that number, you come up with--roughly--$1.92 per gallon today.
That being said, if you're paying more than $2 per gallon, you should be going to Costco. When I last filled-up at a Costco station (about 2 weeks ago), the price was $1.96 per gallon.
I'm not sure about that anymore. Take oil for instance: plenty of supply, low demand, yet we're still paying over $2 /gallon.
I also wouldn't underestimate the ability of certain entities to provoke the marketplace -- in either direction.
Oil is a completely different commodity -- for innumerable reasons -- and one that trades on the open-market, allegedly in an "efficient" market, although many know it is not. That in and of itself makes it a completely different commodity. Not even apples and bowling balls.
As far as certain entities and their ability to provoke the marketplace...they can only do so, and only have the ability to do so...if suckers buy into the BS, and enough of them. Timeshares? Sure, some people love them and get their money's worth. That's great. I get it. The old joke about lakefront lots in the Poconos? LOL. Look past the BS, propaganda, sales hype, etc. -- and look at inventory, real market prices, days on the market, etc.
A house is worth...what someone is willing to pay. Period.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
