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Old 07-31-2009, 11:04 AM
 
64 posts, read 154,192 times
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For all you people that think this tiny uptick is a recovery, get a grip and look at the bigger picture. The same seasonal uptick (only because of foreclosures by the way) is clearly seen here for 08.

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Old 07-31-2009, 11:07 AM
 
58 posts, read 111,187 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NarniaLady View Post
They should be in jail, they screwed things up for everybody else
I don't think so, other people screwed things up (brokers, fed etc) but no one is in jail. In fact, inmates are released in CA hahaha
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Old 07-31-2009, 11:08 AM
 
3,269 posts, read 9,936,557 times
Reputation: 2025
Quote:
Originally Posted by elflord1973 View Post
No, I didn't write that it was nonsense. I was expressing skepticism, and that a first glance, your argument looked like nonsense. You didn't offer much in support of your position, except a vague request to "think outside da box"

Your explanation for your position wasn't very convincing -- your argument was essentially that you need to hold cash reserves to avoid risk, which isn't a very strong argument.

BTW, if it's optimal to carry a high debt load, why bother messing around with an amortizing loan ? Would it not make more sense to keep your debt load constant and take out some kind of interest only loan ?
Whatever. Go forth and pay off your mortgage as quickly as possible.
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Old 07-31-2009, 11:13 AM
 
Location: NJ
31,771 posts, read 40,705,240 times
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thanks, my accountant didnt know about it and said it was probably the original thing that was knocked down to 8k. so now it appears that politicians are trying to get the full 15k, but i dont know how likely it is to happen.

i wonder what timeframe it would cover because im making offers on houses next week.
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Old 07-31-2009, 11:21 AM
 
Location: Montgomery County, PA
2,771 posts, read 6,276,461 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UKOK View Post
Whatever. Go forth and pay off your mortgage as quickly as possible.
I never said pay it off as quickly as possible. Why resort to a dishonest straw man ?
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Old 07-31-2009, 11:24 AM
 
Location: Montgomery County, PA
2,771 posts, read 6,276,461 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by paulyc44 View Post
For all you people that think this tiny uptick is a recovery, get a grip and look at the bigger picture. The same seasonal uptick (only because of foreclosures by the way) is clearly seen here for 08.
I don't think anyone is predicting a "recovery".

More like a long period of stagnation.

The prices are about normal given the rates (see HOI etc). As long as rates stay low and the govt keeps propping up prices, prices will stay the same.

They won't go up for quite a while though, because unwinding these market manipulations will prevent growth.

Basically you're screwed if you buy today, but you're probably also screwed if you wait until it's a good time to buy.
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Old 07-31-2009, 11:29 AM
 
58 posts, read 111,187 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elflord1973 View Post
.

The prices are about normal given the rates (see HOI etc). As long as rates stay low and the govt keeps propping up prices, prices will stay the same.

This is incorrect. Prices are not normal given the high property taxes. Prices are not normal given the high unemployment. As paulyc44 mentioned, gov can only delay the inevitable. Wait for the fall!
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Old 07-31-2009, 11:33 AM
 
268 posts, read 761,697 times
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Originally Posted by ordinar View Post
This is incorrect. Prices are not normal given the high property taxes. Prices are not normal given the high unemployment. As paulyc44 mentioned, gov can only delay the inevitable. Wait for the fall!
You're going to be waiting a long time.
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Old 07-31-2009, 11:33 AM
 
Location: Montgomery County, PA
2,771 posts, read 6,276,461 times
Reputation: 606
Quote:
Originally Posted by ordinar View Post
This is incorrect. Prices are not normal given the high property taxes. Prices are not normal given the high unemployment. As paulyc44 mentioned, gov can only delay the inevitable. Wait for the fall!
No, you are incorrect. The HOI numbers, which are an affordability metric that takes property taxes into account, have affordability in the same ballpark as the historical norm.

Basically, lowering long term rates is a good way to manipulate prices. Rates are very low by historical standarsd.

I've posted them previously in this forum, look them up.

I agree that a fall is inevitable. I also agree with you that the government can delay it. I suspect that they can and will delay it for quite some time.
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Old 07-31-2009, 11:39 AM
 
64 posts, read 154,192 times
Reputation: 26
1.) Unemployment will continue to go up despite what the media reports.
2.) Foreclosures are going up exponentially soon - many in default.
3.) Property taxes are outrageous
4.) This uptick in home sales was only for those sold for $100-$250K



Home prices have a big correction to go yet. I'm not buying anytime soon.
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