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> "Case in point: A mere 1.5 degrees F. increase ...
1.5 deg F increase would have the effect of moving down in elevation
by about 330 ft.
Put another way, treeline ( where it is too cold for trees to grow on the
tops of mountains over about 12k ft in NM ) should climb about 330 ft.
The article briefly mentioned the Little Ice Age ( roughly the beginning
of the 1300's to the mid 1800's ) that had an effect on NM.
They didn't mention the effect that the Medieval Warm Period had on
NM. ( Wikipedia: "The Medieval Warm Period was a time of warm
weather around 800-1300") This coincides with the time that the
Anasazi abandoned many of their dwellings.
Although Global Warming doesn't mean that everyplace will be warmer
and drier, as the article discusses, I believe (*) it's likely to be that
way in NM based on what happened before.
Therefore, I'm voting for the cost of wasteful, green lawns to go way up.
I will not go as far as Don Schrader ( AKA Naked Guy )
has suggested, however.
(*) "I belive" -- Note that I'm making a prediction that worth what the
reader paid for it. It's just like all the other predictions that the PhD
eggheads are making. For all we know, whilst the seas are rising and
other places dry up, NM might get cooler and Albuquerque could be
getting 100" of snow on an annual basis in 100 years.
The climate is always in flux. New Mexico is neither hotter or colder than any time in history.
About a year ago I downloaded all the temperature files from the nearby climate stations (near Ruidoso). Most have data since ~1900. The temperature meandered along, then clearly went up starting ~1970. It is currently ~1.5-2 F higher than the previous trend.
Going back a little farther in time, you can see that the world is warmer than any time in the last 2000 years.
Going back to the last few ice ages (which seem to occur in a pretty regular cycle), the shocking thing is how brief the "warm" periods (like our current epoch) tend to be compared to the cold ones. It would also be easy to make a case that an ice age could be imminent... since we have already enjoyed a warm period that is longer than normal.
I'm ambivalent concerning global warming. It is possible that our unwitting expulsion of CO2 into the atmosphere might turn out to be a beneficial thing for the world climate. Being a little warmer will certainly "hurt" less than being a lot colder (ice age). Unfortunately, AFAIK no one understands this long term temperature cycle very well... we don't know what causes it, and we also don't know if our "meddling" in the global temperture will ultimately trigger an ice age!
There are plenty of other good reasons to reduce fossil fuel and wasteful energy consumption though...
About a year ago I downloaded all the temperature files from the nearby climate stations (near Ruidoso). Most have data since ~1900. The temperature meandered along, then clearly went up starting ~1970. It is currently ~1.5-2 F higher than the previous trend.
Going back a little farther in time, you can see that the world is warmer than any time in the last 2000 years.
Going back to the last few ice ages (which seem to occur in a pretty regular cycle), the shocking thing is how brief the "warm" periods (like our current epoch) tend to be compared to the cold ones. It would also be easy to make a case that an ice age could be imminent... since we have already enjoyed a warm period that is longer than normal.
I'm ambivalent concerning global warming. It is possible that our unwitting expulsion of CO2 into the atmosphere might turn out to be a beneficial thing for the world climate. Being a little warmer will certainly "hurt" less than being a lot colder (ice age). Unfortunately, AFAIK no one understands this long term temperature cycle very well... we don't know what causes it, and we also don't know if our "meddling" in the global temperture will ultimately trigger an ice age!
There are plenty of other good reasons to reduce fossil fuel and wasteful energy consumption though...
Has it ever occurred to you, that normal changes will continue to occur? Same as some things becoming extinct. Life changes, eventually you may be right, another ice age, followed by what? With all the world concerns and problems I think there are many things we can worry about other than Global warming.
I must disagree, although there certainly are many other things we can worry about. Sure, species become extinct, but we don't have to hurry them along with man-made global warming. There is little doubt that we are contributing to it, and even if one doesn't care about other species becoming extinct, it's going to affect the lives of humans when the coastlines of today are under water, the polar ice diminishes further (which reduces the earth's albedo), and the climatic changes accelerate. These are not 'normal changes' at the rate which they are occuring.
I must disagree, although there certainly are many other things we can worry about. Sure, species become extinct, but we don't have to hurry them along with man-made global warming. There is little doubt that we are contributing to it, and even if one doesn't care about other species becoming extinct, it's going to affect the lives of humans when the coastlines of today are under water, the polar ice diminishes further (which reduces the earth's albedo), and the climatic changes accelerate. These are not 'normal changes' at the rate which they are occuring.
catman, I do understand, this is a very controversial subject and some are very passionate about their views, on both sides. I am just not one that thinks there is 1-a lot that can be done and 2-that, with so many other concerns this should be at the top of anyones list. What would you suggest we do, go back to the horse and buggy days?
Don't get me wrong, I am not anti ecology, I beleive in doing whatever to clean up our lakes and rivers, I wish there was more recycling in NM like we have here and had in Texas, I beleive in driving as little as possible and have adjusted to not having a wood burning fireplace (that was hard, )
I just think some things are a product of life and can not be changed, maybe slowed to a degree, but I don't buy all the reports like you do. Maybe I have been around long enough to know we can do anything we want with studies, charts, stats etc.
Has it ever occurred to you, that normal changes will continue to occur?
Certainly... it appears that if we do nothing to modify the climate, another ice age should be expected in a few thousand years or less... maybe a lot less. An ice age would be a truly devastating
I also agree that the evidence so far does not support the idea that there is a "crisis".
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