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Murder being up by so-called 23% is not much, really. Like bluedog2 said, even 23% of 161 is 37 extra murders (and of course, any murder sucks and is a shame), but in order to reach "back in the day" at this time of year, murder would have to be up nearly 1000%. So, nowhere close. So much has changed since then, anyway, especially technology.
Look at how Times Square and other parts of Manhattan have spruced up since then. Does anyone seriously see that backsliding soon?
Reps from Bed-Stuy and ENY have proposed legislation that the NYPD "shoot to wound" instead of shooting to stop a threat. I for one absolutely abhor police misconduct or any unnecessary violence, but I've also been on the range enough times to know that these ideas are not realist and may result in rounds landing in innocent people instead of the bad guy trying to take the life of someone else. Police have use-of-force parameters, they can't shoot someone because they are stealing a big TV, they can only do so if another person's life is in danger.
I know not everyone in Brooklyn supports this policy and I know the folks also see the other side, when they ask why so many of their neighbors had to meet an early demise at the hands of the NYPD. But the answer is generally simple...don't perform a vicious assault on a cop, or another perosn, and your chances of not getting shot are outstaning.
If there is a backslide in NYC, I see it in neighborhoods like these, neighborhoods where good people already grapple with higher than average amounts of violent crime, yet their representatives propose to make it harder for the police to apprehend the perpetrators that are taking/damaging human life at will.
I see the city headed for a decline, but not like the 1980s or worse, the 1970s. The decline will be noticed in the mid-summer when all the cuts in services, particularly public transportation, go into effect. However, the decline, as I see it, will not change the culture so much (i.e., increase in crime) as the last 20 years or so have been very civil and at least a generation and a half has gotten used to behaving. The steeper decline will be state-wide and will be pretty rough.
I see the city headed for a decline, but not like the 1980s or worse, the 1970s. The decline will be noticed in the mid-summer when all the cuts in services, particularly public transportation, go into effect. However, the decline, as I see it, will not change the culture so much (i.e., increase in crime) as the last 20 years or so have been very civil and at least a generation and a half has gotten used to behaving. The steeper decline will be state-wide and will be pretty rough.
Possibly, with the budget deficits and all, some services will fall off and a few quality of life issues may decline a bit but not enough to stop people from wanting to come here. I'm curious ... why do you think the 70s were worse than the 80s? I though the 80s (crack epidemic) was much worse. I loved the 70s as a kid.
Crime statistics have been distorted. Our mayor has put incredible pressure on all agencies to use "data" for purposes of evaluation. This makes people under report negative statistics. As a teacher I see this in the resistance to report ANY incidents in schools. The police were the first to feel these pressures and have responded accordingly.
Next, thanks to the rampant "development" and "gentrification" going on, may neighborhoods have been "cleaned up" and appear to have improved. However, the problems of poverty and homelessness are being swept under the carpet and are like a festering wound. Every time Wall Street slips and the artificial economic bouyancy they impose on the city falters, the danger becomes greater and greater that the whole system will collapse. Also, the two level economic model that our mayor is so fervently supporting is becoming more prevalent as many struggle to survive while a priviledged few do very well.
I think the problems this time are potentially more serious and will eventually, with the help of the faltering state financial picture, result in some serious repercussions.
Crime statistics have been distorted. Our mayor has put incredible pressure on all agencies to use "data" for purposes of evaluation. This makes people under report negative statistics. As a teacher I see this in the resistance to report ANY incidents in schools. The police were the first to feel these pressures and have responded accordingly.
Next, thanks to the rampant "development" and "gentrification" going on, may neighborhoods have been "cleaned up" and appear to have improved. However, the problems of poverty and homelessness are being swept under the carpet and are like a festering wound. Every time Wall Street slips and the artificial economic bouyancy they impose on the city falters, the danger becomes greater and greater that the whole system will collapse. Also, the two level economic model that our mayor is so fervently supporting is becoming more prevalent as many struggle to survive while a priviledged few do very well.
I think the problems this time are potentially more serious and will eventually, with the help of the faltering state financial picture, result in some serious repercussions.
excellent points. i'm going to keep my eyes open on this. thanks, quixotic59!!!
Crime statistics have been distorted. Our mayor has put incredible pressure on all agencies to use "data" for purposes of evaluation. This makes people under report negative statistics. As a teacher I see this in the resistance to report ANY incidents in schools. The police were the first to feel these pressures and have responded accordingly.
Next, thanks to the rampant "development" and "gentrification" going on, may neighborhoods have been "cleaned up" and appear to have improved. However, the problems of poverty and homelessness are being swept under the carpet and are like a festering wound. Every time Wall Street slips and the artificial economic bouyancy they impose on the city falters, the danger becomes greater and greater that the whole system will collapse. Also, the two level economic model that our mayor is so fervently supporting is becoming more prevalent as many struggle to survive while a priviledged few do very well.
I think the problems this time are potentially more serious and will eventually, with the help of the faltering state financial picture, result in some serious repercussions.
I agree. Things will get bad but not 70s-80s bad. Bloomberg did a good job by hiding the cities homless residents. Only time will tell when things will get worse. So far the most important industry in this city the real estate industry is not doing so good. You have thousnads of vacant condos and newley rehabilated coops in gentrified areas sitting and not producing any profits and just bleeding money. If anything I hope the feds step and give the city and state some grants to try and keep things afloat for the time being before a systemic collapase is ever realized.
what do you think it would take for NY to become bad as it was back in the day? I read somewhere that murders are up 23% and with summer here we'll be seeing more and more. And if this continues for a few years we are in big trouble.what do you think?
mod cut
Your question rings zero bells with me.
I lived in NYC (Manhattan) for forty years. I was out on the streets at all hours of the night in the 70's and 80's...walking, taking the subway, taxis, and not in high rent districts.
No problemo, amigo.
Are you sure that you aren't just titillating yourself with a dystopian fantasy?
I lived in NYC (Manhattan) for forty years. I was out on the streets at all hours of the night in the 70's and 80's...walking, taking the subway, taxis, and not in high rent districts.
No problemo, amigo.
Are you sure that you aren't just titillating yourself with a dystopian fantasy?
We seem to have a lot of that in this forum.There are a bunch of posters (all under 30 yrs old I am sure) who seem to think they really missed out on something big and exciting by not living through the 70's and 80's in NY.
They seem to literally spend a big chunk of their lives fantasizing about how cool it would be to live through a permanent crime wave.
Every year they come on and tell us that this is the year crime is going to spiral ( or is spiraling)out of control,we are going back down into the pits of hell that they have no memory of. You show them the downward crime stats and their response is that the crime stats are a lie until suddenly there is an actual crime spike in one precinct and they post the crime stat spike to try to prove their point ! Then when it becomes clear that it was a temporary spike they go back to bashing the official statistics.
Check out the official NYC crime thread and you will see how some of them even stare at The Gothamist crime map all night so they can post the latest crimes almost as they happen. It's all so exciting! And some of them don't even live in NY which makes it all even more bizarre.
Last edited by bluedog2; 06-15-2010 at 05:53 AM..
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. i'm going to keep my eyes open on this. thanks, quixotic59!!!
