Would You Invest $100,000 For A NYC Home With 15% Return On Investment Within 8-9 Months ?

[Kefir King]

It really is this simple:

If a government agency is going to shovel $1,000,000 of paper into your coffers, you will have made $1,000,000 more. Your paper pile will be higher, your business has not grown more profitable. Or you can ask for as much money as you want at no interest and it will be given to you.
And still you have not gotten more profitable.


The government is using the tired old trick even the Romans tried...inflating it's way out of debt. It NEVER works but every generation tries it while the government chants louder and louder: THERE IS NO INFLATION. The louder the canting, the faster inflation is accelerating.
(My bagel went up 16% yesterday, for real...just like the Dow Jones average has gone up.)

It is the ULTIMATE bubble that will burst louder than anyone now alive has ever heard.

[mathjak107]

so far we are so far from general inflation that slipping backwards into deflation is more an out come.

no one ,not one of us has more money to spend . for the most part we all have less and while certain sectors have been the receivers of our money the rest of the economy has not.

the gdp growth has been revised downward FROM 2.2 TO 1.8% after the last quarter.

hardly inflationary at all.

[BlakeJones]

Originally Posted by Kefir King

The government is using the tired old trick even the Romans tried...inflating it's way out of debt. It NEVER works but every generation tries it while the government chants louder and louder: THERE IS NO INFLATION. The louder the canting, the faster inflation is accelerating.
(My bagel went up 16% yesterday, for real...just like the Dow Jones average has gone up.)

It is the ULTIMATE bubble that will burst louder than anyone now alive has ever heard.

If by inflating you mean growing the economy, then yes. But the Fed wants no part of high inflation and there isn't particularly high inflation right now - China has made sure of that

[mathjak107]

People mix up inflation for price increases that are cyclical and are due to the weather, political issues, strikes, shortages, increased demand, etc etc .

This is not inflation . other sectors for goods and services are sucking wind.

I just did a few very very large bunch of yearly bids for contracts.

I am blown away by how many different items are cheaper then they were the last two years.

[mathjak107]

Originally Posted by Kefir King

It really is this simple:

If a government agency is going to shovel $1,000,000 of paper into your coffers, you will have made $1,000,000 more. Your paper pile will be higher, your business has not grown more profitable. Or you can ask for as much money as you want at no interest and it will be given to you.
And still you have not gotten more profitable.


The government is using the tired old trick even the Romans tried...inflating it's way out of debt. It NEVER works but every generation tries it while the government chants louder and louder: THERE IS NO INFLATION. The louder the canting, the faster inflation is accelerating.
(My bagel went up 16% yesterday, for real...just like the Dow Jones average has gone up.)

It is the ULTIMATE bubble that will burst louder than anyone now alive has ever heard.

you can count on your hands the number of companies that are publicly traded that got any bail out money.

much to everyones surprise the consumer has stood up well through the down turn.

wall street looks at profits which could come from cost cutting and they look at revenue from sales. that says it all. if revenue from sales are up than your up.

when you think about it we are not much higher than 13 years ago . the big difference is valuations.

13 years ago valuations were crazy high. today while not cheap they certainly are not expensive.

i hardley would call this a bubble.

if anything the bond market is exceptionally low in real return terms producing negative real returns when historically it has produced far more.

the only folks who call things a bubble waiting to burst are those that were so gun shy as to not make money or much money in one of the biggest run ups in history the last few years so they justify their actions with it's a bubble.

the truth is for most long term investors they can lose 1/2 of their money and still be way way way way ahead of where they would be not investing or trying to figure out when to be in and when to be out..

to be honest i would still be waiting to get in the markets if i believed my own bull-sh*t.

when markets lost 26% in one day in 1987 i called we were going to 1600 from the 1735 we were at.

i told myself you are nuts getting in at this level, wait .

well i did not listen to myself thankfully and today through all the crap we have been through including the worst financial collapse since the great depression that money is now up 1400% without adding another penny to it.

if things fall ,great!. reinvesting dividends and re-balancing a diversified portfolio when prices fall are just what grows your money , not running for the hills and bailing out or going through analysis paralysis.

it is the cycles of the markets that make even the losers perform.

bet you didn't know:

if you bought a simple equal mix of an s&p 500 fund ,gold,long term treasuries and cash and bought your gold right at the peak of over 800 bucks back in the 1980's that today just by rebalancing once a year your gold and equities would be worth very close to the same thing.

not only that but that little mix even with 25% stting in cash out performed a 100% investment in equities.

that's why people who try to call this stuff get it wrong.


as jack bogle likes to say when markets plunge "DON'T JUST DO SOMETHING , STAND THERE.
.