Under Extreme Political Pressure, MTA Chairman Vows to Start Phase 2 of Second Avenue Subway Next Year
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Unless there's another economic crash or a significant delay in Phase I (both of these are quite possible), the difference is probably going to be very noticeable within a decade.
You can see a difference now along Second, Third, and First Avenue in Yorkville. However as have stated previously many of those old tenement or walk-up buildings are full of RC or RS tenants. Many of them aren't going anywhere even with buy out offers. That is unless a developer is willing to give deals like Related did for that building near Hudson Yards (25 million for two tenants), people like where they live and aren't interested in moving. Thus it will be decades before the youngest of those rent controlled tenants either die or otherwise vacate their units.
The other main problem is not always one landlord owns all the property on a given block. Many of the apartment buildings in Yorkville/UES go back decades in the same family. So you can have say six buildings between two streets on an avenue and four or even six different owners. That greatly complicates assembling lots large enough to build anything that makes the bother worth it financially.
You can see a difference now along Second, Third, and First Avenue in Yorkville. However as have stated previously many of those old tenement or walk-up buildings are full of RC or RS tenants. Many of them aren't going anywhere even with buy out offers. That is unless a developer is willing to give deals like Related did for that building near Hudson Yards (25 million for two tenants), people like where they live and aren't interested in moving. Thus it will be decades before the youngest of those rent controlled tenants either die or otherwise vacate their units.
The other main problem is not always one landlord owns all the property on a given block. Many of the apartment buildings in Yorkville/UES go back decades in the same family. So you can have say six buildings between two streets on an avenue and four or even six different owners. That greatly complicates assembling lots large enough to build anything that makes the bother worth it financially.
Are RS/RC tenants really the vast majority of people renting in those areas? I would think that there's a large enough number of people who aren't which means the now more valuable real estate of those locations means increased rent, demographic changes, and a large change in what commercial tenants on the ground floor retail levels will be like. I wasn't really thinking so much of changes as the demolishing of blocks and building of new high-rises taking up blocks as I was that the feel and makeup of things on ground level will be very noticeably different within a decade.
Are RS/RC tenants really the vast majority of people renting in those areas? I would think that there's a large enough number of people who aren't which means the now more valuable real estate of those locations means increased rent, demographic changes, and a large change in what commercial tenants on the ground floor retail levels will be like. I wasn't really thinking so much of changes as the demolishing of blocks and building of new high-rises taking up blocks as I was that the feel and makeup of things on ground level will be very noticeably different within a decade.
There hasn't been *that* much new construction over the past few decades on the UES/Yorkville of new rentals. Thus much of what is there has been for decades. A co-worker lives on East 80th and we did some research to find her six floor elevator building went up in 1960. In fact the property was just reconfigured from the house that once was there into an apartment building with a new façade and elevator added.
While yes, there was turnover especially in the 1980's and 1990's those apartments are still under RS because luxury decontrol really didn't kick in until when? Even then Yorkville was never a "hot" real estate market for various reasons. Mostly because of the hike the further you go east from Lexington to the subway.
Walk around the UES/Yorkville from say Lexington going east to East End avenue. Where do you think all those middle-aged, seniors and elderly live? That is those who obviously aren't well off...
One of the largest problems the MTA had using eminent domain for the SAS was finding apartments for all those RS and RC tenants who lived on Second Avenue from the 90's down. Some did take buy out offers, but others wanted to hold the MTA to letter of the law; that is they wanted another apartment in the area of the same size (or larger) at same rent (or less) than they had now. I *THINK* the reason why MTA moved the station on 86th and Second from the SE corner (where Gothic Cabinets used to be) over to the NE (where the bank was) was because those RS tenants above were proving hard to relocate.
That row of tenement "railroad" apartments on the east side of Third Avenue between 80th and 81st is mostly RC and RS tenants. Some have been there for decades and can recall when the EL came down. *LOL*. Someone I know if pally with an older gentleman who lives in those buildings and the tales he tells. There was once a gay bar right downstairs from his apartment.
There hasn't been *that* much new construction over the past few decades on the UES/Yorkville of new rentals. Thus much of what is there has been for decades. A co-worker lives on East 80th and we did some research to find her six floor elevator building went up in 1960. In fact the property was just reconfigured from the house that once was there into an apartment building with a new façade and elevator added.
While yes, there was turnover especially in the 1980's and 1990's those apartments are still under RS because luxury decontrol really didn't kick in until when? Even then Yorkville was never a "hot" real estate market for various reasons. Mostly because of the hike the further you go east from Lexington to the subway.
Walk around the UES/Yorkville from say Lexington going east to East End avenue. Where do you think all those middle-aged, seniors and elderly live? That is those who obviously aren't well off...
One of the largest problems the MTA had using eminent domain for the SAS was finding apartments for all those RS and RC tenants who lived on Second Avenue from the 90's down. Some did take buy out offers, but others wanted to hold the MTA to letter of the law; that is they wanted another apartment in the area of the same size (or larger) at same rent (or less) than they had now. I *THINK* the reason why MTA moved the station on 86th and Second from the SE corner (where Gothic Cabinets used to be) over to the NE (where the bank was) was because those RS tenants above were proving hard to relocate.
That row of tenement "railroad" apartments on the east side of Third Avenue between 80th and 81st is mostly RC and RS tenants. Some have been there for decades and can recall when the EL came down. *LOL*. Someone I know if pally with an older gentleman who lives in those buildings and the tales he tells. There was once a gay bar right downstairs from his apartment.
I see--from that map, it looks like there had been significant loss of RS/RC apartments in the area in the decade from 2007 to 2014. If the loss was already more than half in many of those neighborhoods over that time period, then it seems very unlikely that area is going to be majority RS/RC when the first phase is projected to open at the end of this year. If that's true, then it means that the majority of residences and all commercial establishments are going to be completely subject to market forces which I think means a decade's time, since most non-RC/RS people and businesses aren't signing leases that are a decade out. The RS/RC people are still staying for a while, but because they aren't the majority population, it seems like very noticeable changes are going to come pretty quickly.
Also, I want to make clear, I wasn't saying there was a lot of new construction over the last few decades. I'm saying that the demographic make-up and the establishments on ground level are going to see dramatic and noticeable changes in a decade from now. Though yea, there is a construction boom of sorts which will also add to the changes.
I'm also not in support of those changes. I'd actually like to see more of the RS/RC homes remain and much more of the area historically landmarked to make it more difficult for developers to plow neighborhoods over for giant doucheboxes. I'm just interested in transit, that's all.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 01-30-2016 at 09:15 PM..
I see--from that map, it looks like there had been significant loss of RS/RC apartments in the area in the decade from 2007 to 2014. If the loss was already more than half in many of those neighborhoods over that time period, then it seems very unlikely that area is going to be majority RS/RC when the first phase is projected to open at the end of this year. If that's true, then it means that the majority of residences and all commercial establishments are going to be completely subject to market forces which I think means a decade's time, since most non-RC/RS people and businesses aren't signing leases that are a decade out. The RS/RC people are still staying for a while, but because they aren't the majority population, it seems like very noticeable changes are going to come pretty quickly.
Also, I want to make clear, I wasn't saying there was a lot of new construction over the last few decades. I'm saying that the demographic make-up and the establishments on ground level are going to see dramatic and noticeable changes in a decade from now. Though yea, there is a construction boom of sorts which will also add to the changes.
I'm also not in support of those changes. I'd actually like to see more of the RS/RC homes remain and much more of the area historically landmarked to make it more difficult for developers to plow neighborhoods over for giant doucheboxes. I'm just interested in transit, that's all.
Well you have to factor in the SAS construction caused (off the top of my head) three or four buildings to come down. Am betting a good number of those tenants were RS or RC.
Even if a building isn't "majority" RS or RC it doesn't make a difference if a developer/landlord wants to do something with the property. Long as the protected tenant or tenants remain, so will that building. Hence you are seeing so many buildings emptied out on the UES/Yorkville; buy outs.
Well you have to factor in the SAS construction caused (off the top of my head) three or four buildings to come down. Am betting a good number of those tenants were RS or RC.
Even if a building isn't "majority" RS or RC it doesn't make a difference if a developer/landlord wants to do something with the property. Long as the protected tenant or tenants remain, so will that building. Hence you are seeing so many buildings emptied out on the UES/Yorkville; buy outs.
Yes, I agree with the details of how all of this is going down. I'm factoring in what came down due to the construction (and what will be/is being put up in their place) as part of the dramatic change I think will happen within a decade rather than needing to wait for two generations before seeing it. Are we disagreeing on what significant and noticeable change means then?
what really needs to happen is that the full line needs to be extended to replace the Third Avenue line in the Bronx.....the neighborhoods of Morrisania, Claremont, and Bathgate would seriously benefit. It should really follow the old Third Avenue El to Gun Hill Road, and then extend to Co-Op City....but that's wishful thinking.
Nice idea, but question whether it's feasible or realistic. Last time I was on Second Ave, that construction looked like it was hurting them businesses and that neighborhood, a bit. Doing something on Third Avenue, I don't know if them businesses or neighbhorhoods can 'hang in there', for the long haul. A light rail, or select bus, might be much less expensive and provide 'less short-term damage' to those areas of the Bronx.
Oh, and FYI.....the 6 normally 'empties out' at Hunts Point and Parkchester!
Yes, I agree with the details of how all of this is going down. I'm factoring in what came down due to the construction (and what will be/is being put up in their place) as part of the dramatic change I think will happen within a decade rather than needing to wait for two generations before seeing it. Are we disagreeing on what significant and noticeable change means then?
Think we are both pretty much saying the same thing.
Yes, you have new buildings going up on the UES and more to come; however for purposes of this conversation it doesn't matter if the majority of tenants in a building are RC RS. Long as any "protected" tenant remains in a building the property isn't going to be redeveloped. So the landlord must wait for a vacancy to occur or buy the tenant out.
Looking at recent development on the UES:
135 East 79th Street - Former site of Hunter College School of Social Work. No residential tenants.
151 East 78th Street - Former site of Ackerman Institute. Brownstone/townhouse building with no residential tenants.
And so it goes.
Icon Properties paid big bucks and gave other bennies to the RS and RC tenants in those Second Avenue buildings to surrender their leases. The other building on 81st Street corner has been vacant for years.
Point am making is that as the RE market heats up in Manhattan not only have land costs risen but RC and RS tenants are becoming well aware of what "their" apartments are worth. Again related had to pay that gay couple (who lived in a market rate apartment) 25 million to vacate. Thus when I say the only thing holding up many of those old tenement and walk-up buildings on UES/Yorkville are RS and RC tenants, this is what one is referring.
Is there any possibility of extending the Second Ave Subway along 125 from Lex Ave all the way to Broadway? I \t would make perfect sense considering that 15th St is a major thouroughfare in Harlem and traffic is usually bumper to bumper during rush hour. Also, are there any provisions to extend the line to possibility Brooklyn and Queens in the future? And why didn't the powers that be place the line along First Ave??? Placing it along First Ave might have made more sense considering that the UN is at First Ave, Gracie Mansion is nearby, and transferring to the L train at 14th St would've made more sense plus maybe placing another 7 train station at 1st and 42nd St would've worked too!
Is there any possibility of extending the Second Ave Subway along 125 from Lex Ave all the way to Broadway? I \t would make perfect sense considering that 15th St is a major thouroughfare in Harlem and traffic is usually bumper to bumper during rush hour. Also, are there any provisions to extend the line to possibility Brooklyn and Queens in the future? And why didn't the powers that be place the line along First Ave??? Placing it along First Ave might have made more sense considering that the UN is at First Ave, Gracie Mansion is nearby, and transferring to the L train at 14th St would've made more sense plus maybe placing another 7 train station at 1st and 42nd St would've worked too!
There is somewhat of a plan to have service turn west on 125th—the way the second phase is laid out is that of the two services, the Q and the currently nonexistent T, north if the 116th stop is that one goes west on 125th and the other continues north into the Bronx at some point.
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