7/20/2020 What is your best case scenario estimate for NYC returning to 75% economically of what it was prior to COVID (2015)
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What is your best case scenario estimate for NYC returning to say 75% economically of what it was prior to COVID?
That would be not that bad. Let's assume these protests start to die down, COVID may upsurge somewhat in the fall or winter, lots of business closures and unemployment
But in a realistic best case scenario (keyword realistic) how long do you think it will take to get back to 75% of what it was and get to a somewhat stable point?
I'm thinking mid 2021 at best, realistically
Worst case scenario is we are heading into a several year depression or stagflation in which the inflation rate is high, the economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high maybe 2024
The thing I really don't want to see is a year or two of high crime, like higher than late 1980s level, widespread murders and muggings etc with no end in sight that would drive me out, a little a might tolerate
I think that it will take well into 2021, but that also depends upon the economic fallout in retail and hospitality, given the months of closures for the pandemic, and then absorbing losses from political unrest. With Broadway dark, that's a large economic engine closed that is a drive for regional tourists, not just those from out of state. And, the news from Gracie Mansion is not good -- as the mayor seems to be more in line with creating a ruckus outside Trump Tower than getting to the business of solving problems facing the city. Cuomo should remove him from office as he has threatened, if he had the temerity to actually do it, as that would be a clear signal that things are being treated seriously. That could shorten the turn around with the right administrative mayor in place.
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crime is already increasing and defunding police is only going to make things worse.
there's no way that with the addition of tough economic times, and hence increased poverty, this will not lead to increased criminal activity.
Since most businesses have made the decision to keep teleworking until 2021, there cannot be any sort of meaningful recovery in NYC until next year. Gov Cuomo's edicts and restrictions are not helping either (such as keeping indoor seating at restaurants closed).
Schools also need to open for full-time in-person instruction. Too many parents cannot go back to work until this happens. The teacher's union seems too powerful and will continue to resist in-person instruction, which the City will not push back against.
Also, a big chunk of NYC's economy is the tourism industry. Until the USA gets COVID under control as an entire country, tourism will simply not happen even if NYC has zero cases. This is unfortunate since somebody from Frankfurt could conceivably safely travel to NYC since they have similar COVID metrics, but the EU and other countries look at the USA as a whole (and not on a state by state basis). Even so, I cant imagine anybody wanting to come to NYC if the theaters and restaurants are closed.
I am interested to see how low new cases/deaths need to go for this pandemic to be considered "done" since I am not banking on a vaccine to be ready before Q2 2021. I think even after a vaccine is widley available, it will take 3-4 quarters for the economy to start recovering.
My prediction: Economy recovered back to Q1 2020 levels by Q2 2022.
crime is already increasing and defunding police is only going to make things worse.
there's no way that with the addition of tough economic times, and hence increased poverty, this will not lead to increased criminal activity.
I hesitate to call it "defunding the police" because it is only taking 1 billion out of 5.7 billion ( a very large budget) and some of that would be inevitable to a degree due to the city running out of money due to this COVID crisis other city employees will be cut
NYPD spending has increased about over $1 billion since de Blasio took office. That included the hiring of 1,300 new police officers in 2015 for a new community policing initiative, a hiring decision pushed by the City Council over de Blasio’s objections and approved by many of the same Council members now calling for cuts.
Nevertheless spending has increased about over $1 billion since de Blasio took office. Now the one billion is being cut (but it's not really going to be that much see below) so it's like add and take away the same amount
Did de Blasio actually defund the NYPD?
The mayor and the City Council did some fuzzy math to arrive at $1B in cuts.
I don't think this reduction by itself are going to increase crime that much. However the many other factors, joblessness, business closings would be expected to, look at Detroit (although I don't see it going that far)
and there is the unappreciated vibe the police are getting but it is hard to predict how long that will last, increasing crime and shootings make people reassess the situation
In poor neighborhoods there are a lot of guns. People have rent and food to pay for. I those needs don't get met the guns are coming out
The mayor announced a campaign to install free internet in NYCHA apartments and a lot of other poor housing families would be eligible for it. In addition, there’s a program to do the same with air conditioners. This is a mass distribution but methinks mayor is trying to keep the crime down by keeping youths busy in front of XBOXs and staying cool.
In terms of economic recovery, it’s going to happen a lot sooner ( probably mid 2021) than the nyc government can recover.
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