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Old 08-25-2020, 07:56 PM
 
5,450 posts, read 2,735,373 times
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yavgfk0IjdM





https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkpLFNtYEdo&t=272s



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGj_Jm2RrY4

Business closures due to coronavirus: thoughts and rants on the economic disaster.
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Old 08-25-2020, 09:02 PM
 
17,874 posts, read 16,041,960 times
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I get the dirty money, and laundering part. But if too many spaces go empty, then NYC is losing value in the eyes of speculators. These people who park their money in NYC RE needs those speculators to see NYC positively, or else they will lose money.

At some point someone has to do something productive somewhere. The raw materials of the building are not worth what they are being sold for. At one point NYC location was as a major port, but now the docks are in NJ. Finance, and MSM do not need to be in NYC anymore. Technology allows for those industries to be anywhere.

A ghost town has no value.
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Old 08-26-2020, 03:31 AM
 
Location: NY
16,187 posts, read 6,941,319 times
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Excerpt: MSM do not need to be in NYC anymore. Technology allows for those industries to be anywhere.

Response:
Well done NJBrazen. It has massive implication. All will be affected.
In the case of struggling Landlords I welcome keeping apartments vacant
as it is cheaper than having to pay fees associated with the judicial process
of eviction and the propensity of property damage and further litigation.

Damned if you do and Less damned if you don't................
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Old 08-26-2020, 07:28 AM
 
8,423 posts, read 4,449,140 times
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In addition to being a global trade center (which has now waned or gone online/remote), NYC has been a global center for culture/arts/higher-end entertainment for a few centuries. This is something that can be preserved and expanded - NYC will either play that card and save itself, of continue playing the race/poverty card and finish driving itself into near-universal poverty indeed, and national/global insignificance.


NYC built its national and international economic standing on construction of the Erie Canal in the early 1800s. With loss of economic value of the canal system, some of the Upstate cities that rivaled NYC, Philadelphia and DC in the 19th century in size and significance have lost much of their population, all of their significance, and all traces of prosperity (the most horrific example is probably the ghost city of Utica, but a lot of Upstate places followed that type of fate to a greater or lesser extent), so don't think it "can't happen" to NYC. I hope it doesn't, but it certainly could.
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Old 08-26-2020, 07:35 AM
 
Location: In the heights
37,307 posts, read 39,658,179 times
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https://www.eater.com/2020/8/17/2137...rants-covid-19

There's some interesting stuff in this interview with a lawyer who does contract negotiations in regards to restaurants. One thing that jumped out:

Quote:
I talked to a developer who said he could leave a space open for like 6 years before he’d actually start to lose money.
Really high rents were sort of offing a lot of businesses already--which is how you can have prime real estate pre-pandemic in West Village and the like sit empty for so long. It's a pretty odd system that's also not great for city and state revenues to some extent since an empty store means you don't have the economic activity and the jobs and the spending associated with it. It's kind of nuts.
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Old 08-26-2020, 08:55 AM
 
5,450 posts, read 2,735,373 times
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^^ below an excerpt from the previous post's article, a lot more at link, long article - interview

https://www.eater.com/2020/8/17/2137...rants-covid-19

EATER

What It’s Like to Negotiate With Landlords Right Now
Hospitality lawyer Jasmine Moy visits Eater’s Digest this week

by Amanda Kludt@kludt Aug 17, 2020,


AK: A common question I’ve been getting is, why would a landlord rather have a vacant space than have a tenant that’s paying a discounted rate? So I know that these people have mortgages if they are mom-and-pop landlords. At first I thought it might be tax breaks, but then I see that’s not necessarily the case, especially in many cities. So what is the motivation there?

JM: It is a direct relation that the rent has to the value of the property. And when I talk about the value of the property, I’m not even talking about the assessed value of the property, I’m talking about the value of the property to the bank and the security that the bank sees in that building or in the space, because the kind of money a bank will lend to you, is directly related to how much income you can see from the property, and by income on the property, all you’re talking about is rent.

So the minute you lower the rent, you lower the ability to borrow money or to get any kind of liquidity from a bank. And so people are very reluctant to do that. So they would rather, versus lowering the value of their building and reducing the rent, they would rather leave it empty. And I’m not a tax attorney, but I do know that there are various write-offs and things you can take if you’re taking a loss on any given year, so there’s no financial incentive to lower the rent on any space, they don’t take a hit. The hit is to them in terms of what they have access to as far as money goes, capital goes.

So, yeah. Until we tax people, until we disincentivize people, or find a way to disincentivize them from leaving a premises open...I talked to a developer who said he could leave a space open for like 6 years before he’d actually start to lose money.

AK: Oh wow.

DG: Oh my god.

JM: Which is a really long time, which is why you walk in the West Village and everything’s empty, it’s because they can.

AK: Unless there’s actually a vacancy tax, like in San Francisco, people are just going to keep doing this. They will let their tenants walk, rather than lower the rent for them.

JM: Yeah. Unless, and again, this goes back to what we talked about as far as a landlord being a partner, sometimes landlords need somebody in there, food and beverage in particular, because maybe they’re developing something in a neighborhood that’s a little bit of a dead zone that doesn’t have a coffee shop within half a mile, that doesn’t have X, Y, or Z. Those partnerships are bound to be better partnerships because they need you a little bit. So to the extent that you’re in a neighborhood that has a ton of walk by where a landlord doesn’t really care what is in their space. Yeah. They’re not going to give a **** and they’ll leave it open. They’ll let you go, they’ll leave it open.

The people who I think are more incentivized to work out a deal are the people who need you for whatever reason, because they’ve got this mixed-use property because they need a grocery there, they need a coffee shop there, they need a restaurant there. So I do think those sorts of projects are probably going to be more attractive to people moving forward, because the landlord actually has a vested interest in your success.

DG: So just in terms of the deals you’re seeing, that makes sense that the larger corporate landlords would be much more interested, or would be entirely uninterested, in renegotiating a contract, because the last thing they would want to do is have a lower rent on paper, because they can’t borrow against it.

JM: Uh-huh (affirmative).

DG: That’s so interesting.

AK: And the mom-and-pops too.

DG: Right. Right, right. So if they do cut restaurants or cut anyone a deal and say, “We’ll allow you to skip rent for the winter.” Does that not leave any kind of paper trail for them and the banks wouldn’t see that in terms of in their borrowing practices?

JM: So what happens is the base rent on paper is the base rent.

DG: Okay.

JM: So in all of these amendments that you’re drafting, you’re talking about a base rent, but then maybe discounts.

DG: Gotcha.

JM: So the base rent is the base rent. Nobody is lowering the base rent, they’re sort of adding verbiage to give discounts in the same way in any lease that you sign, you have a free rent period. So you have a base rent, but the rent is abated, which means you just don’t pay it for a certain period. So what all of these amendments are, are like amendments at the base rent, but with percentage abatement. Percentages of the rent abated so that the base rent stays the same, it’s not being altered. And when you give that to the bank, while the bank understands that for the next 6 months there’s some differential there, they know that after that period, the base rent is the base rent and that’s what they’ll be able to see.

And banks are giving forbearances on mortgages and things like that, for the most part, so these landlords, by a large, are not having to pay mortgage during periods in which they’re not collecting rent. But every landlord has a different cashflow situation. And listen, some landlords don’t have mortgages on their properties and some lands are just being greedy.

AK: Wow.

JM: Some of them are just... I have a client who had just built, of, The Banty Rooster, Delores Tronco, had opened The Banty Rooster in the Village, put a lot of money into that space and made it beautiful, and I think her landlord was completely, they have no mortgage on the property, her landlord was completely unwilling to make a deal with her, because I think she’s looking at it and saying, “Oh, you just added millions of dollars worth of improvements, and so I’m going to be able to sell this I’m not going to have to drop the rent because someone’s going to get all of this stuff.”
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Old 08-26-2020, 09:24 AM
 
Location: NYC
20,550 posts, read 17,796,738 times
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NYC has been planning to leave the old former past and move towards being the silicon valley of the east coast. If you haven't notice the last decade, most of the old industries are gone. NY is trying to attract technology companies by offering no tax to startups and employees pay income taxes. NYC has become dependent on jobs and people living there.

Now with COVID19 this is all changing, tech companies can easily move out of the city if they wanted to and work can be performed anywhere.

The city also needs tourism to help pay for infrastructure and city worker salaries.
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Old 08-26-2020, 09:47 AM
 
4,757 posts, read 3,383,120 times
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went on someone's profile to ignore them but they have only made their profile accessible to friends. Is there a way to do it that doesnt require going onto their profile? I forgot how to do it.
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Old 08-26-2020, 10:30 AM
 
5,450 posts, read 2,735,373 times
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZUOOwe_Ai4
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Old 08-27-2020, 04:23 PM
 
Location: nyc
360 posts, read 169,628 times
Reputation: 461
He makes good points. But his examples only cover Manhattan. And even then only the trendy areas below 96th street. What about the other boroughs?
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