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I do have to give some credit to OyCrumble for his way of copying and pasting environmental activist talking points!
You think this is copy and pasting? If you know how to use the Internet, you can put anything I've written in quotes in a search to see where the copying and pasting came in. You're not going get very far. The random back and forth on here is all over the place and it's not like any of these people are important enough that there'd be some dossier kept on their arguments. Besides, when what's being spouted is this much bull, that dossier can pile on pretty high--sky's the limit!
I can put these things together, because I know the actual modeling, figures, and processes behind most of these already. I don't think most of the people I'm arguing with already knew what COP, LCOE, or Carnot cycles were before and have never had to model any of these before. I don't think they've had to own and work on properties in these other regions where modern heat pumps were popular earlier. I do this out of interest, out of occasional consulting, and out of trying to maximize efficiency on our properties if you're wondering about intent. Then again, why wonder about intent? What did you find mistaken or in error in my posts in regards to the actual matter at hand? Were they too complicated for you? That's too bad.
What we do have though are a lot of knuckleheads who don't have a mental filter where they first check to see if they have any competency in the topic before confidently coming in with their pants down. This board's been unfortunately more and more overtaken by people who are too incompetent to know that they're just so, and that incompetency helps make it so they can answer with such confidence since they aren't capable of knowing how out of their element they are or how ridiculous their arguments are. That then feeds into a vicious cycle where that confidence means they don't then ever get the feeling that they might want to actually learn something and have even a little bit depth of knowledge so they just stay incompetent.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 12-18-2021 at 10:22 AM..
I'm being pretty direct with how you seem to completely have no idea what you're talking about. If this weren't a public forum with the potential people would be mislead by you, then it wouldn't even be worth responding.
The places where it gets too cold for air source heat pumps are something like Fairbanks Alaska where you'll see -40F temperatures at some point most years and -60F on record cold snaps. That's not NYC. Our all-time record known cold snap gets down to about -20Fs which is still within operable temperature band for modern, even air source, heat pumps. This has nothing to do with geothermal or ground source which can be done in the city, but wouldn't be necessary anyhow. It's not like Sweden is in a geologically active region with volcanoes, hot spots, and hot springs. Your mentioning geothermal heating for Sweden is probably more that you don't actually know what ground source heat pumps are and you've mistaken that kind of geothermal resource as something more like active geothermal resources near the surface. The geothermal heating in Sweden is generally ground-source heat pumps and heat reservoirs--something that can done here as well. It's not the naturally occurring subterranean heated water sources like Iceland or parts of Japan gets. However, that's not even necessary as NYC is squarely in the temperature band where modern air-source heat pumps operate well which is also why much of Scandinavia in recent years has turned to such as have tropical paradises like coastal Maine and northern Japan.
It does not take far more energy to heat up your home with electricity-that's the whole point of why a system that has a high COP above can be more efficient. Guess what that is? Oh right, heat pumps. Guess what they run on? Electricity. What's likely happening here is that you're thinking about electric resistance heaters which have a theoretical COP of 1, but that COP of 1 is much worse than that of natural gas because electricity prices are higher which makes sense since we generate some of our electricity used in NYC via natural gas and those generators have something like 60% efficiency, so you're already heading downwards from there. Heat pumps are different, but they also use electricity and are thus electrical heating. With heat pumps, even if you generated all the electricity for NYC by natural gas, which we don't, then you need a baseline COP of near 2 to be as efficient with the same natural gas resources put into electricity generation instead and heat pumps can operate up to over 5 and can still hit above 2 even well below freezing and that's a study with units from a decade ago when East Asian air-source heat pumps usable for fairly cold climates first started making their way here.
Northern Europe has just about no issue with getting energy resources from or energy dependence on Russia--the problem might be you don't know where Northern Europe is. Germany where there is a particular issue with dependence on natural gas from Russia along with other countries are not generally considered Northern Europe. The Scandinavian countries and Finland are generally what are considered Northern Europe and they are not particularly reliant on Russia for energy--this was also by design. Denmark is the somewhat larger proportional user of natural gas and had a blip in the mid 2000s where usage went up, but that's been dropping for the last decade or so and Denmark is a net *producer* of natural gas. Natural gas barely register as blips for total energy consumption in Sweden (which imports from Denmark) and Finland and what little amount of natural gas used in Finland is primarily used for a little bit of *electricity generation*, Norway exports nearly its entire natural gas production and has ample electrical generation from non-natural gas sources which is part of the large impetus for moving towards heat pumps (which run off of electricity). So what is it that you're trying to say about Northern Europe and natural gas again? It's possible that you saw the Nord Stream pipeline name or that it went through Northern Europe territorial waters and somehow in your head that got jumbled up with the idea that they are reliant on Russia for natural--guess what, it doesn't actually deliver natural gas to Northern Europe and Northern Europe is not reliant on Russian gas. That or you don't know what Northern Europe is.
That's a lot of mistakes for you to make in such a short post. This idea that you somehow have the larger nuanced picture is pretty ridiculous given all the errors you have in the "nuances". Try actually learning how a heat pump works, maybe? Not expecting you to know enough to actually work out the equations for modeling how a heat pump works in different environments, but it might be possible for you to at least look at the established literature and findings for in production units or to take an overview of what conditions are like where heat pumps have been growing in popularity though even that might be too tough.
Skepticism makes sense given that there's not that much familiarity in the US with heat pumps that operate well in cold climates. Gantz's skepticism is well-grounded in reality since he's noting the relatively high cost of electricity in NYC versus the only slightly above average cost of natural gas here, and he asked about the difference in efficiency being enough to make up for that which is reasonable given how relatively short the introduction of heat pumps suitable for this climate have been in the US because it does require a substantially higher COP around above 2 over a fairly broad band for this to be reasonable. He also asked about clothes dryers which I honestly was not sure about and is likely less efficient on a cost basis compared to natural gas clothes dryers even with the ventless, heat pump clothes dryers when used in cold conditions since the temperature differential that needs to be made up for a clothes dryer is much larger than that for room heating as pretty much no one is trying to heat the air in their homes well above 100F. You, on the other hand, act like you actually know something and seem comfortable making one erroneous statement after another like this was some tour de force exhibition of ignorance.
I'm not reading your drivel until you explain why Northern/central Europe, which is much further along in electric heating, mod cut
You seem to have no concept of geopolitics and national strategy. Jumbo jets are more fuel "efficient" than jet fighters. Should we we scrap our fighter jets and attach missiles to jumbo jets?
Yes, heat pumps are theoretically more "efficient" (at the device level vs a gas furnace) but you also have to take into account the size and age of homes in the US. You also have to consider the cost at the consumer level.
I'll tell you exactly what will happen in NYC. Developers will build stupidly good insulated buildings that will require much less heating during the winter. However, during the summers (due to how well insulated they are), residents will blast their ACs 24/7. Left pocket, right pocket. Your idiot politicians will pretend they "helped" while our electric grid constantly strains under summer loads.
Last edited by SeventhFloor; 12-18-2021 at 05:55 PM..
I'm not reading your drivel until you explain why Northern/central Europe, which is much further along in electric heating, has to suck on Putin's dong evey winter?
You seem to have no concept of geopolitics and national strategy. Jumbo jets are more fuel "efficient" than jet fighters. Should we we scrap our fighter jets and attach missiles to jumbo jets?
Yes, heat pumps are theoretically more "efficient" (at the device level vs a gas furnace) but you also have to take into account the size and age of homes in the US. You also have to consider the cost at the consumer level.
I'll tell you exactly what will happen in NYC. Developers will build stupidly good insulated buildings that will require much less heating during the winter. However, during the summers (due to how well insulated they are), residents will blast their ACs 24/7. Left pocket, right pocket. Your idiot politicians will pretend they "helped" while our electric grid constantly strains under summer loads.
Oh buddy, did you just try to sneak an amendment to your post to say you were talking about Central Europe, too? Great, very good weaseling.
Central Europe is not Northern Europe. I don't know how many ways you want this explained to you, and Central European countries, while slowing adopting heat pumps as well, are not very far in the process so several of them are quite dependent on it. They are also not Northern Europe, so I guess this answers my question of what went wrong there--you don't know what Northern Europe is. Even the general arc of this argument is puzzling. So Central Europe is getting hit hard because they've grown into having a natural gas dependency... and the argument is that having greater natural gas dependency in NYC then makes sense? Where did that fall in line anywhere with why electrical heating via heat pumps was the more sensible option?
I like your jumbo jets to fighter jets analogy because it's a good showcase of how confused you are in your arguments. What was was supposed to be the analogous argument you were trying to make here for heat pumps? Did you consider thinking this through first? It's just flinging bull against that wall and hoping it sticks without anyone realizing it stinks. Let me take a wild guess at what's happening. You don't have any expertise in this. You didn't get a degree in a STEMS field from a higher tier university or anything equivalent to that and have never had to do any in-depth engineering analysis. You're scrambling to string together random garbage instead of addressing what exactly are the issues you're finding with any actual real arguments so you're going to try to flex your great knowledge (LOL!) of geopolitics because it's messier and doesn't have repeatable numbers and processes to actually back them up.
Heat pumps are theoretically more efficient--they're also more efficient in practice. I'm using measured in real world use case efficiencies as theoretical efficiencies go up to above 8 even at freezing. Did you see me using COP of 8 and above figures in my posts? What are you even going on about here? Yea, obviously you're not reading my previous posts but then if you're not going to read it, then you're just going to keep posting dumb comments like this cute idea that somehow size and age of homes or costs at consumer levels aren't considered.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 12-18-2021 at 10:50 AM..
He did the same thing to me when I dared suggest Elon Musk could build tunnels throughout NYC at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time as bloated union contracts. He knew better and I had no idea what I was talking about
He seems like one of those who thinks they're smarter than they actually are. Usually, they're the most dangerous types. They see only 2 feet in front of them but think they can lead everyone on a thousand mile expedition. When **** hits the fan, they're usually the first ones to scurry and hide or get blown up right away.
He seems like one of those who thinks they're smarter than they actually are. Usually, they're the most dangerous types. They see only 2 feet in front of them but think they can lead everyone on a thousand mile expedition. When **** hits the fan, they're usually the first ones to scurry and hide or get blown up right away.
Great then, make some rational arguments then. Try to ward off the great danger.
And if you want to stick up for your little buddy there, then what was it that you found questionable about my criticisms? Are you really going to also assume that two tunneling projects with vastly different conditions and requirements are going to have the same cost per mile estimates? Does that not sound stupid to you?
Oh buddy, did you just try to sneak an amendment to your post to say you were talking about Central Europe, too? Great, very good weaseling.
Central Europe is not Northern Europe. I don't know how many ways you want this explained to you, and Central European countries, while slowing adopting heat pumps as well, are not very far in the process so several of them are quite dependent on it. They are also not Northern Europe, so I guess this answers my question of what went wrong there--you don't know what Northern Europe is. Even the general arc of this argument is puzzling. So Central Europe is getting hit hard because they've grown into having a natural gas dependency... and the argument is that having greater natural gas dependency in NYC then makes sense? Where did that fall in line anywhere with why electrical heating via heat pumps was the more sensible option?
I like your jumbo jets to fighter jets analogy because it's a good showcase of how confused you are in your arguments. What was was supposed to be the analogous argument you were trying to make here for heat pumps? Did you consider thinking this through first? It's just flinging bull against that wall and hoping it sticks without anyone realizing it stinks. Let me take a wild guess at what's happening. You don't have any expertise in this. You didn't get a degree in a STEMS field from a higher tier university or anything equivalent to that and have never had to do any in-depth engineering analysis. You're scrambling to string together random garbage instead of addressing what exactly are the issues you're finding with any actual real arguments so you're going to try to flex your great knowledge (LOL!) of geopolitics because it's messier and doesn't have repeatable numbers and processes to actually back them up.
Heat pumps are theoretically more efficient--they're also more efficient in practice. What are you even going on about here? Yea, obviously you're not reading my previous posts but then if you're not going to read it, then you're just going to keep posting dumb comments like this cute idea that somehow size and age of homes or costs at consumer levels aren't considered.
You still haven't answered the most important question.
Why do central and northern Europe have to literally go to Putin and Gazprom, get on their knees, and take every centimeter even though they're much more "electric" based than us.
You're efficiency argument is dishonest. Pound for pound Canelo might be the best boxer in the world but I'm still taking Tyson Fury in a Tyson v Canelo fight.
You still haven't answered the most important question.
Why do central and northern Europe have to literally go to Putin and Gazprom, get on their knees, and take every centimeter even though they're much more "electric" based than us.
You're efficiency argument is dishonest. Pound for pound Canelo might be the best boxer in the world but I'm still taking Tyson Fury in a Tyson v Canelo fight.
How is that an important question again? I didn't claim this had anything to do with why heat pumps are more efficient. I didn't claim Central Europe had a large amount of heat pump usage. Regardless, like a little weasel, we're sticking northern and central Europe together. What exactly is Northern Europe begging Putin about? Is this just a showcase for your love of Putin slash fiction? How does that affect the cost and energy efficiency of heat pumps versus natural gas again?
What makes the efficiency argument dishonest? Are you trying to claim something in particular--what's the argument here? Tell me where your analogy fits here by actually saying what the analogue figures are. What limitations are these heat pumps hitting? Is this another one of your many poorly thought out analogies and side arguments because you pretty much know nothing about the actual topic being discussed?
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 12-18-2021 at 11:06 AM..
Bottom line electric heat pumps suck. I don’t care if they cheaper to run they cost more to install. I know 3 people worth them and 2 of the homes are only 4-6 years old. All of them hate it and wished they had gas or oil still.
I'm not reading your drivel until you explain why Northern/central Europe, which is much further along in electric heating, mod cut
You seem to have no concept of geopolitics and national strategy. Jumbo jets are more fuel "efficient" than jet fighters. Should we we scrap our fighter jets and attach missiles to jumbo jets?
Yes, heat pumps are theoretically more "efficient" (at the device level vs a gas furnace) but you also have to take into account the size and age of homes in the US. You also have to consider the cost at the consumer level.
I'll tell you exactly what will happen in NYC. Developers will build stupidly good insulated buildings that will require much less heating during the winter. However, during the summers (due to how well insulated they are), residents will blast their ACs 24/7. Left pocket, right pocket. Your idiot politicians will pretend they "helped" while our electric grid constantly strains under summer loads.
The technology's already there
Passive houses don't get built because they would effectively kill the whole HVAC and heating industry
Same reason hempcrete not being used
Technology always kills an industry or changes the status quo
"cough cough" WFH
__________________
"The man who sleeps on the floor, can never fall out of bed." -Martin Lawrence
Did you also know that coal is not the same thing as natural gas? They are actually not the same thing and have different properties! Amazing, I know, and I hope you one day can make the distinction. Did you also know that since the last couple decades in China, people don't burn coal in the house for any reason at all anymore and instead the coal is burned to produce electricity in large powerplants? What is the equivalency you're trying to draw here or is this an exercise in demonstrating how little you know about China and/or fuels?
People in large parts of China still use coal for heating and cooking. They use coal briquettes made from very dirty soft coal. In the winter a suffocating pall of smoke and smog hangs over Chinese cities.
Why would the commies prevent the laying of nat gas pipelines in cities to clean the air? The coal miners are a big constituent of the party and like all politicians, the commies want to stay in the miners' good graces.
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