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what the fed thinks the effect of hedging with credit default swaps does is very different then what it was found they do and their effectiveness by the commission that overseas these default swaps.
if i have to pick a side to agree with it aint the fed ..not with their track record.
they should talk …their history is over doing things both up and down and they can’t get it right.
did those banks make other mistakes , sure they did but hedging was likely not a major factor according to the commissions study.
the fed raised so much so fast there was little effectiveness in the hedging aspect
Last edited by mathjak107; 05-08-2023 at 04:51 PM..
and chase is paying 10 billion to fdic for an insolvent company as well as paying back all the money other banks pumped in to try to save it.
there is no guarantee depositors will stay or use chase’s services either
Chase has the money to throw around though, so why not? One of the good things they took from this latest takeover with First Republic is they had some customers with $$$ that held their accounts with them, so Chase has a chance at keeping those customers and they would be smart to stay. The largest US bank. Personally I think they're one of the best around.
but i only give them 10% of assets …no reason to give them any more .
i let them baby sit some etfs and i got private client status .
it was worth 10,000 points when i did did coupled with 100,000 for taking the chase sapphire reserve
I agree with you on scattering around your assets, as I do the same. I don't believe this regional bank situation is over by a long shot.
What I am watching is the situation with Schwab. They are obviously not a regional bank, but are being swept up in this "contagion". I dumped my Schwab shares a few months ago. Sold all of it around $80.00 a share. The Schwab stock is down 40% YOY. I also sold my JPM shares around $140.00 a share and the stock has yet to recover, even with the takeovers they've been involved in. The only viable space in the financial sector that I'm invested in at the moment is the payment processing area - Mastercard is set to hit $400 a share and VISA isn't doing terribly so far either trading around $230 a share.
i don’t buy individual stocks for anything but speculation ..
never did
i don’t need to take on a whole other layer of risk besides market risk .
individual company risk is a whole other thing .
i only use diversified funds and etfs .
Not a fan of ETFs. No active management. I checked out a few semiconductor ETFs recently out of curiosity since semis are so cyclical and I didn't care for any of them, plus I like a nice dividend. Think PXD... I don't buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend. I actively follow whatever I buy so that's why I can buy equities. You are much older than me I'm sure, so you shouldn't be invested in much equities anyway.
I agree with you on scattering around your assets, as I do the same. I don't believe this regional bank situation is over by a long shot.
What I am watching is the situation with Schwab. They are obviously not a regional bank, but are being swept up in this "contagion". I dumped my Schwab shares a few months ago. Sold all of it around $80.00 a share. The Schwab stock is down 40% YOY. I also sold my JPM shares around $140.00 a share and the stock has yet to recover, even with the takeovers they've been involved in. The only viable space in the financial sector that I'm invested in at the moment is the payment processing area - Mastercard is set to hit $400 a share and VISA isn't doing terribly so far either trading around $230 a share.
Not a fan of ETFs. No active management. I checked out a few semiconductor ETFs recently out of curiosity since semis are so cyclical and I didn't care for any of them, plus I like a nice dividend. Think PXD... I don't buy anything that doesn't pay a dividend. I actively follow whatever I buy so that's why I can buy equities. You are much older than me I'm sure, so you shouldn't be invested in much equities anyway.
not true one bit …
it takes at least 35-40% equities to even have a 4% safe withdrawal rate hold at a high enough success rate .
the most unsafe allocation is fixed income and using no or to little in equities ..
that has failed to last 65% of the 122 rolling 30 year retirement periods to date ..that is a 45% success rate which is considered unsafe
50/50 to 60/40 has a 95% success rate .
current research shows the best glide path is reducing down to 35-40% about 5 -8 years before retirement and 5 to 8 years in to retirement..then you are free to go as high as you like equities wise .
i suggest you read famed researcher michael kitces’s paper on the red zone
my core is a version of harry browns permanent portfolio
which is 25% equities , gold , long term treasuries and short term treasuries . it is about as bullet proof as a portfolio can be .
the other is a 100% equities portfolio using diversified actively managed fidelity funds.
up until pre retirement i was always 100% equities
the core is 90% of assets and the 100% equity model is 10% .
it’s a nice conservative mix that can likely never be devastated as it is geared to protect in
recession
depression
prosperity
very high inflation ,weak dollar
Last edited by mathjak107; 05-09-2023 at 03:14 AM..
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