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These are the growth percentages for each area since 2001 according to data from BEA:
Asheville: 39.8% 2001 GDP: $9.615 billion 2008 GDP: $13.437
Fayetteville: 62.6% 2001 GDP: $9.613 billion 2008 GDP: $15.632
Hickory: 13.7% 2001 GDP: $10.336 billion 2008 Gdp: $11.755
Wilmington 42.7% 2001 GDP: $9.453 billion 2008: $13.494
Hickory in 2001 lead Wilmington, Asheville, and Fayetteville only to have all three surprass it. Much to my surprise, Fayetteville is starting to pull away from the group.
I'd vote for Wilmington - not just due to raw growth numbers, but due to diverse economics:
-retirees
-creative class: the film industry, which is now reasonably well rooted and developed there
-start-ups: Wilmington has gotten press as one of the top ten small cities for tech start-ups, and for a spell during the last decade (it may still hold the title - I'm not sure) was 2nd behind RDU (and ahead of even Charlotte) in the amount of venture capital money floating around.
-port expansion - which solidifies regional/state importance, even if the port is dwarfed by Charleston and Tidewater VA
-airport - Though not truly international (and not likely to have them anytime soon), it has the capacity
-UNCW seems to be maturing into a very respectable university as well
Asheville might be my #2 pick, just due to it's eccentricity, for which it has gained a level of national fame. Fayetteville - until it makes a splash with something not related to the military (I don't know if hip hop counts, in the grand scheme of things), I have doubts. Hickory - not a chance.
Greenville is the 2nd tier metro to keep an eye on. The city itself has made it's first appearance as one of the 10 largest cities in the state, the city is currently the 4th fastest growing of the larger cities in the state (after Cary, Raleigh and Charlotte), and ECU seems to be starting to flex some real muscle as an economic influence. The only complicating factors are lack of an interstate, and the location - at the center of the most economically distressed area of the state. And given the population declines forecast in counties like Bertie, Lenoir and Edgecombe, much of Greenville's growth may be at the expense of its' immediate neighbors - sucking the brains out of places like Kinston and Goldsboro.
I'd vote for Wilmington - not just due to raw growth numbers, but due to diverse economics:
-retirees
-creative class: the film industry, which is now reasonably well rooted and developed there
-start-ups: Wilmington has gotten press as one of the top ten small cities for tech start-ups, and for a spell during the last decade (it may still hold the title - I'm not sure) was 2nd behind RDU (and ahead of even Charlotte) in the amount of venture capital money floating around.
-port expansion - which solidifies regional/state importance, even if the port is dwarfed by Charleston and Tidewater VA
-airport - Though not truly international (and not likely to have them anytime soon), it has the capacity
-UNCW seems to be maturing into a very respectable university as well
Asheville might be my #2 pick, just due to it's eccentricity, for which it has gained a level of national fame. Fayetteville - until it makes a splash with something not related to the military (I don't know if hip hop counts, in the grand scheme of things), I have doubts. Hickory - not a chance.
Greenville is the 2nd tier metro to keep an eye on. The city itself has made it's first appearance as one of the 10 largest cities in the state, the city is currently the 4th fastest growing of the larger cities in the state (after Cary, Raleigh and Charlotte), and ECU seems to be starting to flex some real muscle as an economic influence. The only complicating factors are lack of an interstate, and the location - at the center of the most economically distressed area of the state. And given the population declines forecast in counties like Bertie, Lenoir and Edgecombe, much of Greenville's growth may be at the expense of its' immediate neighbors - sucking the brains out of places like Kinston and Goldsboro.
You have some interesting perspectives. Where are you getting your information about the venture capital?
Regarding Wilmington, I would really have to dig to locate a source - this was something that I remember reading in a biz journal several years ago (so the stat pertains to the 1990s/early 2000s). However, the mention of Wilmington as one of the top ten small tech cities was in Forbes, within the last few months, which would lead me to believe that whatever VC was floating around down there during the boom did fuel something.
My thinking is this really: Wilmington and Asheville - we know you've got tourists and retirees. Fayetteville - we know you've got the military, and some retirees in reasonable proximity. Those are very worthwhile foundations to build on. To take things up a notch, it all boils down to what else do you have, and how are you deepening and developing that? All those cities have other things going on - I just think that Wilmington is either farther along in fleshing those things out, or is at least savvier in the self-promotion.
All of this noted, I do think there are four distinct metros - Asheville, Fayetteville, Wilmington, and Greenville (I have more doubts about Hickory) - that all seem to be arriving at a turning point. They all have strengths, and very distinctly unique qualities - it will be interesting to see where they go from here.
An aside: two of them - Asheville and Wilmington have been there before. Wilmington was the dominant city in the state, until the Civil War, and then the riots/coup in the 1890s really sent the city into a coma that it spent much of the 20th century trying to climb out of. Asheville, meanwhile, was - at one point roundabout 1920 - the 3rd largest (and fastest growing) city in the state, until the Great Depression brought the city VERY close to the brink of total financial collapse (3 banks HQ'd in the city failed on the same day). Asheville didn't pay off debt racked up between 1900 and 1929 until the late 1970s, and growth in the city came to a screeching, 50-year halt. Ironically, this is why Asheville's now-famed expanse of art-deco architecture (after Miami, it's the 2nd largest preserved stand of it in the country, I believe) still remains, now fairly well preserved - during decades in the mid 20th century when the city would have rather torn things down, the didn't have the money to do so.
Onslow County is not considered, as far as I know, in the same area as Wilmington, even though only Pender county separates the two. If it was included in the metro, I think it would go along way to improve the "standing" of the area economically.
Onslow County is not considered, as far as I know, in the same area as Wilmington, even though only Pender county separates the two. If it was included in the metro, I think it would go along way to improve the "standing" of the area economically.
Quite a point. What's the principal city of Onslow? And with the new US Census redefining MSAs who knows what could happen.
There is absolutely no way Asheville could achieve this due to geography. Between the mountains, the national forest lands, and the Asheville water shed, there just isn't a lot of land to continue to build on, which is one reason why land prices are as high as they are. Furthermore, the city has no interest in bringing in any kind of real jobs, its all tourism based, and I guarantee thats not going to change any time soon. This area is only affordable to those with money already or retirees. They don't have any kind of young professional 20's and 30's base. You can't have a booming city without that.
Wilmington is again a tourist destination. Hickory is dwindling to nothing due to factories shipping overseas. The only one of these that might be feasible is Fayetteville.
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