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The models are coming into agreement that a robust upper level low Thursday night will overspread the region, first with rain, and as temperatures crash into the evening, snow. This is a very dynamic system that has the potential to dump heavy amounts in the mountains, and likely will result in significant snows in portions of central and northern North Carolina.
According to meteorologists at WXSouth, the Triad and Southside Virginia will be the sweet spots:
Mid-40's temp forecasts for the Triad on Friday, so if we get snow it likely won't stick around very long. Probably just enough to cause problems for the morning commute.
in between map editing and video now, but just looked at 18z NAM....its had the hot hand on this storm all along. MAJOR dump coming to all of western NC, eastern TN and with tthe cold core upper low some good snow and sleet as well in Alabama and Georgia. This thing just continues to trend stronger, stronger and stronger, for longer ...this is the trend all along. The path remains basically the ...same. If you remember March 2009 in northern Alabama, eastern TN, northern Ga and upstate SC, much of NC...then this should ring a bell. Only thing is its a faster event, in and out quickly. But when the snow comes down, it's really REALLY going to come down. Still looks like the worst of the worse will be most of western NC, eastern TN and southern half of Virginia, but with the cold core so strong and wrapped up, I think Upstate SC and northern GA gets walloped for several hours as well. The surface temps won't drop much below 33 for most areas outside the mountains until the very end, so this snow will stick mostly to trees and cartops, etc at first...but with it falling so incredibly hard for 3 to 6 hours, some areas will manage 8" or more on the ground. The mountains of TN, NC and VA will approach 12" of a very wet, heavy snow. This is extremely bad news for saturated grounds as trees branches will snap easily after 6" of wet sticky snow, and any winds will topple more trees after the storm blows by and winds pick up.
Time will tell. I want one or two good dosings of snow this season. You know the kind of snows where everything is shut down for at least one day. None of this your house had snow but my house didnt business.
*****MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT ALABAMA, GEORGIA, EAST TENNESSEE, NORTHERN SC, MOST OF NC AND SOUTHERN HALF VIRGINIA*******
Models trend colder, stronger, snowier, longer. A strong "bowling ball" type upper low, with cold air, longer duration than previously thought, and heavier axis of comma head snow, will aim at this region Thursday afternoon, night and early Friday. The upper low itself will provide snow and sleet through central and northern parts of Miss, Ala and Ga tomorrow but tomorrow night the precipitation EXPLODES quickly in most of western SC, central to west NC, eastern TN and southern VA. The atmosphere will cool off as all upper lows provide cold air and a crashing column when they're this strong. Rain will switch to snow and sleet suddenly then all snow, in all these areas. The heaviest snow looks to be as I have been pointing out for a while now, northern Georgia, eastern TN, and initially western NC and western, southwest Virginia, but spreading east across the Carolinas during the night. The way the axis sets up, the orientation of the "tilt" of the upper low, the most lift and dynamic cooling will occur much the same way March 2009 occurred..with all the Southern Apps receiving a 4 to 8 hour period of EXTREMELY heavy snow rates, which is much higher than the average Winter storm. Prepare now for power outages in east TN/ W NC/Central NC/sw VA/S VA, and scattered outages possible in northeast GA and Upstate SC. The storm will be short -lived, but very intense.
Trees will come down in some areas. Thundersnow will occur in some areas. Snow rates will be 2" per hour in some areas. Prepare now for suddenly changing weather beginning Thursday afternoon and reaching climax overnight Thursday night.-Robert http://www.wxsouth.com
Last edited by Tarheelhombre; 01-16-2013 at 08:52 PM..
WxSouth
Looking over the High Resolution NAM right now.....I've never seen such dynamic cooling as this. For areas in northern and maybe central Georgia, and points north, the rain will turn to snow like a light switch tomorrow afternoon and evening. And then the actual RATE OF PRECIP is incredible. The Higher Resolution version (which by the way is probably the best model out there for situations like this) really drops the snow all along northeast Alabama, northern Georgia, eastern TN Upstate SC, and quickly develops in more of Virginia and the Carolinas by dark. For some of us, this could end up being the heaviest we've ever seen snow fall, that's if the NAM HI RES is correct. It's being rock solid steady, so I think it has merit. But we'll see what GFS looks like soon. The only good news is that this system will be on the move quickly...much faster moving than most Winter storms. The bad news is, that when 2" per hour rates occur, the trees simply can't handle that much beyond 3 or 4 hours. Hopefully we end this event quickly.
models were definitely showing this to be something nice, but it just ended up being a bust in most locations east of the mountains. boone got smashed, but that was to be expected. fayetteville received 30 minutes of heavy wet snow after an all day rain then it stopped completely. it was forecast to snow from 9PM-2AM and drop 2.3 inches. it was barely even a T amount. disappointing. GSO got 3.5 inches though. so i guess the fc wasnt all wrong. nothing looks too interesting on the 12z GFS. possibly something to watch, the 12z showed a *potential* low to watch for crl and ern nc
The snow fell very quickly, about an inch an hour, but when it came to total accumulation it was pretty much a wash. The forecast was for 6 to 12 inches, we ended up with about 3.
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